Am creating this journal for the primary reason to indicate my gold positions exit, the entry signal was on the Surf Report.... As I started this on Surf's Journal, thought best to create my own. This post was exiting gold at the top: https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/surf-report.306890/page-42#post-4414846 This post was entering gold at the bottom of a pullback: https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/surf-report.306890/page-106#post-4422492 https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/surf-report.306890/page-127#post-4425159 I'm not sure how long this journal will run, will play by ear as time rolls along. Briefly a background; Live in Western Australia, retired recently, have time on my hands to post more frequently as from when I was employed. Fitter & Turner (machinist/Fitter) by trade, Advanced trade cert, 1st Class Steam (boilers) cert, Restricted Electrical ticket. Have been off the tools many years, went into sales of industrial equipment, boiler components, gas and oil burners, valves-all sorts, steel, pipe, fittings, importing and exporting etc. Have been trading 40 odd years, use and code in Amibroker but not a lot of coding is done these days. Self taught through the school of hard knocks, in the early days read lots of trading books, currently have 34 trading books in my bookshelf, borrowed numerous more books from Libraries. Spent many years creating my own indicators. Went into auto trading futures using SierraCharts and IB, created my own algos. I found IB was very problematic in tandem with SierraCharts, so finally due to much anxiety/stress threw in this project. (too many long hours) I was left with the impression that autotrading is probably best done as a team thing event, Coder / Trader / IT Person / Accounts-paperwork-tax. The autotrading venture taught me better how the market operates. Subsequently I have gone back to trading stocks and the win rate has now been very high. In Australia, the choices for trading is very limited in my opinion. The brokerages here are mainly collared by the big four banks. Other than that online trading here is substandard. We have IB, probably the best, but I find it over engineered and due to so many bugs and other reasons have closed my account with them. Unfortunately we do not have the range of stocks as in USA, eg IT stocks are basically non existent. Our strength here is resource companies, in particular gold. If I ignore a lot of queries etc, its because I'm not here to prove anything other than long term trading entries / exits / wins. Am not here to divulge my system, but its EOD discretionary price action gained from years of screen time and research. My system is nothing you will read about, I can never recall anyone mentioning the primary method I use. Stocks are all ASX, prices in AUD, for the most part resources. I manage 3 trading accounts. Account #1 is low to mid 5 figures Account #2 is mid 6 figures Account #3 is low 7 figures On entries and exits, will trade all 3 accounts simultaneously, usually attempt to be around 80% financially engaged. Currrently long ASX gold Stocks, EVN, NCM, NST, RRL, RSG, SAR, SBM
Spot gold chart can be followed with this link: https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/GCY00/technical-chart Or gold futures can be followed on this link which has volume included https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/GC*0/technical-chart I'm also standing by to pounce on a LNG trade....just waiting biding my time. Have traded this one a few times previously https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/LNG.AX/technical-chart
Today there is a temptation to exit my 7 gold positions and take profits. Will resist the urge. There is risk both ways in gold either rising or falling into the near future obviously. If I exit, there is T+3 issue. Money locked up for a couple of days. I believe there is greater risk exiting and missing a spike up in price. I can live with a bit of drawdown. Thought to update, because if gold falls you will know my reasons for not exiting today. There is not enough proof that I can see that we have topped, hence will stay in the trades placed on 13th March.
We hit last minute Friday volatility on gold price and have stalled. Everything regarding stocks appears to be affected at the moment. Friday afternoon we copped a smack possibly due to the Affordable Care Act defeat within the Republican Party. Anyhow, here is an update on unrealised profits to date. Account#1 EVN $39, NCM $164, NST $201, RRL $167, RSG not holding, SAR $222, SBM not holding TOTAL: $793 Account#2 EVN $231, NCM $1172, NST $1359, RRL $1257, RSG $92, SAR $1890, SBM $454 TOTAL: $6455 Account#3 EVN $296, NCM $2113, NST $2906, RRL $2905, RSG $250, SAR $3504, SBM $864 TOTAL: $12,838 TOTAL UNREALISED PROFIT: $20,086 (after brokerage)
Today is shaping up to be a good day, hopefully will be snapping out of the doldrums from past couple of days. Mkt not open yet here in Australia, another 15 minutes to go.
Brief update before the fact and not after the fact reporting. Yesterday I had decided that today (Australia time, we are now Thur 30th 5:35am) I would exit gold positions if it hadn't picked up its boots. Gold is still in doldrums, it's touch and go where it's going from here, but I'm not convinced at this point in time it's going to retrace. Therefore, at this moment, continuing to remain in positions. I'll watch during the day the USD cash position, just sitting under $1.00 round number. I sometimes think of price trading as being similar to someone standing on a tightrope. Can topple either way under the slightest pressure.
Are you nuts? Pull in the profit now! Look at the number, not the targets you WANT to hit. It's $20K profit. WTF! Start again next week with the extra 20K in the bank. For bloody sake.
I just don't understand how someone can look at 20K profit and go..."Nah, not good enough, let me let it go further. Forget the potential for it to all reverse." Capture it, and then go back in!