MSTR as a defined-risk trade for asymmetric risk-reward

Discussion in 'Crypto Assets' started by johnarb, Jun 16, 2024.

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  1. You keep asking me to share my position but have not shared yours yet. ??

    I was considering a leap as well, but call prices are too high to make it worth it...I don't chase, and I am also not convinced that we don't see 50k before 100k. I have posted all of my trades on here that mattered. I have already told you I am doing dividend stocks to hedge a position while I wait for capital gains. I will post my monthly income when it kicks in later this month. I can share my weekly MARA trades if you want, but they are pretty mechanical at this point collecting premium.
     
    #131     Oct 9, 2024
  2. Is this your trade?

    upload_2024-10-9_16-20-54.png

    Going by my numbers, this trade would basically need a stripper pole to reach some high profits...which would be expected for a risk of 160k...if not things could get bleak fast.

    upload_2024-10-9_16-33-11.png
     
    Last edited: Oct 9, 2024
    #132     Oct 9, 2024
  3. johnarb

    johnarb

    **** NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY ****

    Murad's #1 meme coin pick

    https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/spx6900

    I finally gave up, could not take the pain of missing out anymore

    I put an allocation to $spx6900 memecoin (swapped half of my $popcat)

    This is a trade that makes me sick to my stomach. very high chance of getting rekt and I deserve it, but I had to stop the pain

    This got my attention when it was 20 cents due to its extreme price movement to the upside and I was thinking it's worth a little bit of allocation when it pulls back, nothing big

    but it just kept going up, every single day...



    upload_2024-10-10_14-20-34.png

    upload_2024-10-10_14-23-33.png


     
    #133     Oct 10, 2024
    NoahA likes this.

  4. The only MEME coin is Dogecoin.
     
    #134     Oct 10, 2024
  5. That trade looks like a total hail mary!

    35 JUN20 250 C @ $47
    Total cost: $164,500


    Price reaches 230 by April.16 pnl = -$53,129

    upload_2024-10-10_3-43-35.png




    Price reaches 280 by Jun.16 pnl = -$33,186


    upload_2024-10-10_3-44-8.png




    Price reaches $322 (1SD) by expiry = $88,062
    If I put the 160k into MSTY I would make 100k in the 9 months doing nothing...no risk, other than maybe making less dividends...but could also make more. :)
    upload_2024-10-10_3-49-43.png
     
    Last edited: Oct 10, 2024
    #135     Oct 10, 2024
  6. johnarb

    johnarb

    **** NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY ****

    Target a price of over $700/share by July 2025 (originally $7,000/share before 10 to 1 split, mentioned on the first 5 posts of this thread)

    Whichever poison you pick, make sure you go for more time no less than Sept 2025 expiration

    you can pick any option quantity and strike not too far out of the money at current mstr share

    $1M minimum profits given the $700/share mstr target

    I will update on this thread with a screenshot of the position before I leave ET

    No more advice to each other, we are all adults on ET, we don't need backseat drivers since lambos don't have backseats,


    upload_2024-10-10_20-32-35.png
     
    #136     Oct 10, 2024
    jbusse and NoahA like this.

  7. I can't see how that price is going to be reached especially if bitcoin retraces...not 160k sure...that's more than 3SD! Also I only have Jun expiries not July and max strike is $390.

    Speaking of no back seats, I just bought a 2024 c8 2LT rapid blue, mag ride, performance exhaust. I originally just went to upgrade the suv, but we both (the dealer and me) agreed that financing would be better if we rolled in the vette as well. :)

    [​IMG]

    This is from the internet but its the same as mine...tint...wheels etc.
     
    Last edited: Oct 10, 2024
    #137     Oct 10, 2024
    johnarb likes this.
  8. johnarb

    johnarb

    Nice car, congrats!

    No financial advice here

    I trade based on imagination of price distribution over a given time period. It's explained on the first page of this thread

    Yes, I know you do not see the price going to $700 and I can assure you the market makers on the other side of my previous 2 trades did not believe I could hit my target of 400% ROI (inside of 18 months) or 2500% (inside of 6.5 months) ROI

    IF the market makers believed what I believed, there would not be a market, I wouldn't be able to put my positions

    https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/crypto-macro-trends-for-2022.363931/page-35#post-5618039

    upload_2024-10-10_22-25-35.png

    $27k risk capital, max intraday position value I saw was $118k, but I only cashed out at $62k profit of $35k

    https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/crypto-macro-trends-for-2022.363931/page-88#post-5909685


    -----------

    $40k risk capital, max intraday position value I saw was $1,090,000 or thereabouts

    But let me ask you this question, mstr was $513/share on Jan 29, 2024, my mstr position value was $12k (yes a loss of over $70% m2m)

    would you have believed me if I told you then that the position will go to $1M within 6 months and mstr would hit $2,000/share?

    Or would you have argued with me that it was 6SD and it was impossible, would not happen in 1000 years?

    https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/crypto-macro-trends-for-2022.363931/page-90#post-5920653


    Less than 2 months later on March 15, mstr was near $1800/share and my position value had gone to $871k

    https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/is-the-crypto-winter-over.372152/page-193#post-5942254


    On March 27, my mstr position was worth over $1M, but I got greedy and only sold a few, mstr hit $1999/share intraday

    https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/crypto-macro-trends-for-2022.363931/page-92#post-5946808

    ----------------

    I don't do TA, the way I trade is explained on the first page of this thread, anyone can copy it, no charge

    I will not argue with you on why or how mstr will hit $700/share by July 2025, or a few months after it

    If I tell you that $700 is not even the limit of how high mstr will go by 2nd half of 2025, it will open a shit load of can of worms
     
    Last edited: Oct 10, 2024
    #138     Oct 10, 2024
    jbusse, NoahA and wxytrader like this.
  9. johnarb

    johnarb

    mstr needs to break $200, hopefully today

    gamma squeeze?

    upload_2024-10-11_21-57-14.png
     
    #139     Oct 11, 2024
    TrailerParkTed likes this.
  10. #140     Oct 11, 2024
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