Crypto Macro Trends for 2022

Discussion in 'Crypto Assets' started by johnarb, Jan 3, 2022.

  1. Thats gold mate!!:D:D:D

    I sometimes feel the same.

    Manifesting luck for us both in 2024.:thumbsup:
     
    #871     Dec 29, 2023
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  2. johnarb

    johnarb

    Last update for the year 2023

    Not a good day. It started ok, position value went up to $83k, but then MSTR and pretty much most of the bitcoin-related stocks, bitcoin miners, i.e. Mara, and Coinbase sold off

    I read a tweet it's because funds are realizing the profits (closing them out for the books)

    Happy New Year 2024 and best of luck to all the crypto bros!


    upload_2023-12-30_13-45-27.png
     
    #872     Dec 30, 2023
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  3. themickey

    themickey

    Bitcoin <40,000 is my uncle point.
    ATM I remain bullish crypto, but as we switch next week to a new Month-Quarter-Year, things can turn quickly, so suggest a trigger finger.
    Happy New Year.
     
    #873     Dec 30, 2023
    johnarb likes this.
  4. NoahA

    NoahA

    John, I was watching a video with Arthur Hayes and he mentioned how he was already out of SOL. Apparently he would get back in if it drops $40-50. I'm honestly amazed at how much of a pump and dump operation this guy is running. Is this even legal??? He probably has no ties to the US so there is no way to go after him, but hey, at least what he is doing is out in the open. I wish I added more when he was pumping SOL.

    On a side note, I don't like this Laura girl too much. She just sounds all over the place and not too smart. But its good to listen to Arthur. You almost want to hate him, but its perhaps better to learn from him.

     
    #874     Dec 30, 2023
    johnarb likes this.
  5. Sprout

    Sprout

    hey hey,
    Checking in on your at year end here. Do you have more or less BTC than when you were prepping for the BTC bear market?
     
    #875     Dec 30, 2023
    johnarb likes this.
  6. johnarb

    johnarb

    I don't know how much impact Arthur had in pumping Solana, tbh, I thought he was late to Solana pumping, when I saw his tweets pumping Solana, the price was already above $60

    EllioTrades was much earlier in pumping Solana, you can watch his old videos when he was buying below $20 and kept talking about buying in the $20's

    On a previous post with a screenshot that there was lots of talk on Twitter from crypto "influencers" with big followers before October, so I would not point to Arthur as the pump and dumper of Solana, others were much earlier in pumping Solana but the price was much lower

    On-chain activity on Solana was the signal


     
    #876     Dec 30, 2023
    NoahA likes this.
  7. johnarb

    johnarb

    Hey Sprout, welcome back! Hope you're doing well and getting ready for the biggest bull market cycle of bitcoin and cryptos in the next 2 years!

    A question for a true bitcoiner, the unit of account is btc

    As always, the answer is not enough, my friend

    It was necessary, but sad to think the equivalent btc's cost of moving to Asia, not inaccurate to say 6.15 btc more or less

    [for context, btc price was below $20k at the start of the process and it was not smooth, without expanding further, some expenses cost multiples]
     
    #877     Dec 30, 2023
    Sprout likes this.
  8. johnarb

    johnarb

    Update on the MSTR calls position expiration 1/19/2024

    *** There is no financial advice here, only for entertainment purposes ***

    The call options position hit over 6-figures ($105k) in the early session last night (Asia time), but stock market was weak and MSTR did not close at the high

    There's a trading philosophy on when to close a winning trade, and something to the effect that if I did not have a position today, would I put $100k into MSTR calls that are going to expire in 2 1/2 weeks?

    The answer is no, even if I give excuses to stay on the trade and capture the upside(?) volatility of post spot btc etf approval

    The position is much longer than 1 year and taxes will be due next year, anyway...

    I will be looking to close the position today.... This position was worth $2.3k about 3 months ago, it's up 5000%, even as I believe it will go higher, I'm not doing my job of managing the risks

    And I plan to open a new trade for July expiration, higher wotm strike prices, hopefully the new MSTR position will be at a risk capital cost that will allow me realize some $

    Analogy would be selling a house in SF, to buy a smaller, cheaper house in the suburbs, put some cash in the bank

    Some target prices... if btc hits $100k, post halving, post etf approval, before July expiration, then imho, MSTR hits over $2k/share, based on their btc asset holdings value ++EV (enterprise value)

    The position on this thread was opened during the start of the crypto bear market and it was a sit-and-sit position

    The July 2024 MSTR call position is during a crypto bull market and I foresee more trading activity, possibly closing and opening (trading) for a higher strike/later expiration... when the time comes, if the MSTR price moves in my direction

    nfa

    upload_2024-1-3_15-8-35.png
     
    #878     Jan 3, 2024
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  9. johnarb

    johnarb

    Maybe not closing today, bitcoin just dumped 5k, somewhat recovering, I'm still looking for news

    Wednesday government scheduled fud? perhaps
     
    #879     Jan 3, 2024
    semperfrosty likes this.
  10. Could be related to this JA?

    Would make sense:

    Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval Has 75% Probability of Sell-the-News Event, K33 Research
    K33 Research analyst said that there's currently excessive froth in the market looking up to Spot Bitcoin ETF approval.
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    The approval of the first spot Bitcoin ETF is just around a week’s time with BlackRock and other big players making a push for the same. While the Bitcoin price made a strong move above $45,000 earlier this week, there’s a strong debate within the crypto community that the ETF approval could be a sell-the-news event.

    Selling Pressure After Bitcoin ETF Approval?
    K33 Research predicts a decision on Bitcoin spot ETFs between January 8 and January 10, with the possibility of market-moving news breaking earlier. Senior Analyst Vetle Lunde anticipates that, regardless of the timing, approvals are likely to trigger a sell-the-news event.


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    Lunde notes that traders appear significantly exposed ahead of the verdict, with derivatives showing substantial premiums after Bitcoin’s sustained upward momentum in the last three months. The sell-the-news scenario, according to Lunde, could become a self-fulfilling prophecy as many short-term market participants eye the event for profit-taking.
     
    #880     Jan 3, 2024
    johnarb likes this.