John, hope you don't mind me putting my update here, but I wanted to share my results today since you've been so good about being transparent with what you are doing. I happened to be watching at just the right time to notice the plunge. On my chart, ATH didn't hit yet, so it took me a bit by surprise, but since I had a sizeable position in the 2X leveraged ETF, I took profits. In one account, the bigger one, I closed for a $14k profit, which for me is an incredible gain. I'm part of, what they call, the "shrimp" army. I was building up this position ever since the plunge after the ETFs launched. I took an exit at $53 for BITX in this account, although it had been as high as almost $55 today. I waited a few minutes to watch if it would recover, and it didn't, so I feel lucky to make the right decision. And just like I said I would, I started scaling into the non-leveraged ETFs. I was mostly buying IBIT today since I already have a huge amount of BITB. I want to diversify the ETF holdings, but since they all custody at Coinbase, maybe there is no diversification in reality. (not your keys, not your coins) Its in a tax free account though, so the benefit is there. Here is the $14k closed position. The $922 loss is an ETH ETF that I can't wait to close. It got at high as -$400 today, and then plunged, so I'm hoping I can hit breakeven with it. Been holding it since the end of 2021 and it went as low at about -$4k. The rally in the past month has been incredible, and was hoping I could close it soon, but maybe we need to regroup first before another push higher. So now that my leveraged position is sold, I plan to just buy more spot ETFs and sit back and wait for the top in 2025. Hopefully it plays out like this, but I might start scaling out when we get to 100k depending on how things are going. Since its not a leveraged position and the fees are so small on these ETFs, I don't mind if we dump and not reach 100k this year. Its a long term hold at this point. Here is me scaling into IBIT and FBTC. I had gone to sleep, and to my surprise, all the open orders hit. I should have set even more lower because I could have gotten a bit more IBIT for lower prices. But I put in about 70% already from what I sold from BITX, so there isn't much left to buy to be fully committed. In my IB account where I do my day trading (horribly mind you), I booked a $1.6k win, which is bigger than anything I have ever gotten (I'm seeing that swing trading vs. day trading is much better for me emotionally, so this is an interesting observation). Once again, I started scaling in, and was happy to see so many fills. The shitty thing is that I already took many profits on the way up. If I just held the position from about the $20s or so when I started buying, the profits would be much bigger. I got about $100, $200, and $800 profits along the way, so this is the biggest, but it could have easily been about $4-5k if all I did was add to the position and not exit. I don't mind if we keep going lower as I will just keep loading up more. Since this is the leveraged ETF, I think there is time decay, but I'm fairly certain we will have a bounce so I can get another nice profit. Even if it drops down to $30, I can still keep buying in 10 share increments. (maybe these is what they call the famous last words... LOL) Anyway..... so that's it. I'm quite pleased with how it all turned out and eager to see what happens as we approach the halving.
Great moves! Actually think the temporary dip setting us back a couple of days is a good reset, very painful as it is I think by end of week we'll be above $70k/btc but even so I will not be going back to trading perpetual futures and will switch to altcoins trading for no risk-of-liquidation Pepe is up 500% from when I sold my last stash and Wif is up 1000% give or take and although the perp futures trade was just as profitable, it always had the risk of liquidation and the fear that goes with it My mstr call options position is back to 2nd level 6-figure, sucks but was not planning to trade in and out, still have 5 months left
With gains already this large... aren't you worried that there isn't much more juice left to squeeze? I haven't looked at the charts, so maybe the ATHs are still quite far away, but after a 10x move already, it seems super risky.
The meme coins I'm thinking of trading, like Pepe or Wif have no use-case whatsoever, pure momentum, fomo degenz If btc goes to 70k+, these can move much higher because lower caps, only in the billions of $
Yup, I totally understand this now. And if I recall, Arthur Hayes was pumping WIF as well. I think he was calling for it to go to $2.. and based on the chart you just shared, it is damn close. I'm hoping to close out my SOL around $200. Maybe at $180 I will start getting anxious because I will be well info profit by then after scaling in much lower, so that will be awesome. But at the same time, if BTC breaks 70k with no trouble, meaning that this very fast move down is totally bought, then I can imagine the pump will be quite strong. I honestly thought that this drop today could have been a fairly large correction, but its looking very strong right now.
minor update on the position, it went back to 5th level 6-figure value m2m. Last update on this position unless it hits target
Update: the mstr calls options position hit over $1M m2m value today as mstr hit $1,999/share today A few surprises for me... the position was down 75% within 2 weeks, from $40k risk investment to $10k the position even went lower in value seeing it down 85% to $6,500 or so the position hit $1M in such as short time and with btc only at $70k, thought btc had to be at least $80-90k The stock (and options) market does not care that my calls position hit a certain value... mstr will continue to move from here, lower or higher depends mostly on the bitcoin price That last piece makes a difference on what I think I should do with the position as the halving is coming up in 3 weeks and the gbtc selling should it continue at this pace, will be exhausted in 60 days I've sold a few call options, but still holding the majority of the call options, keeping most of the proceeds in cash, pending discussion with the tax advisor I was planning to scale out of all the options as certain mstr share prices are hit, and buy some bitcoins with the proceeds, not all of it, gotta save for taxes... That may not be the best bang for the buck, though, at least given my view of a very bullish 60+ days, so I think I'll just hodl the remaining call options until after 60 days After that buy some bitcoins as originally planned.... also could buy shares on mstr, less cumulative delta (no margins for me, I'm a degen, but not stupid), no expiration or deadline I guess this is the last update, it's been a fun ride, but very stressful at times losing hundreds of thousands of $ in paper profits, like last week, lost over $350k
When I started this thread, I had no idea 2022 was going to be the most difficult crypto bear market, but for anyone who survived, today is the day bitcoin surpassed $100,000 I've been on ET for over 7 years, wow, can't believe it myself, time flies when you're having fun There were some challenging periods, as crypto bear markets in 2018 and 2022 lasted a couple of years I posted mostly on crypto assets forum, this is where I my funds were invested in, naturally I was a permabull unable to accept how severe the bear markets would be ET is a place of inspiration for traders and also longer term speculators I chose johnarb as I aspired to be just good enough in options trading to earn a small amount consistently, I would never be as proficient in options as riskarb (atticus, Maverick74, et al), but perhaps if I can trade with enough profits to withdraw some cash every now and then, like neke, take risks, get rewarded I won't be posting much anymore, the reason is simply because bitcoin is already well known and there are many resources provided by professionals, like Blackrock and Fidelity Before the bitcoin spot etf's, all of us on ET could benefit buying ahead of the wall street investors, but that is no longer the case this is not a forever farewell, If anyone calls me on a post, I'll reply nfa, imho, bitcoin will continue to go up and hit $1M within 5 years, but even then, bitcoin won't stop going up in price as the $ and all fiat currencies will continue to debase, by design called (monetary) inflation Thank you to all for the interactions and I'm sorry to others for my offensive behavior and replies, I was emotional having concentrated bets and no diversification, and all that Best wishes to everyone and God bless, always