It would; thx for being so precise for the apply conditions, now =) But it still does not answer the question, how to apply
So it is agreed, that to buy low and to sell high, want to wait for a pullback in a rising trend. Lets define the direction of a trend period as the respective EMA indicator. Prices above EMA equals an upward trend and prices below EMA equals a downward trend. Purple vertical lines are interpreted as signals to enter market in the described direction. Some assumptions made: · This is a daily chart; therefore the signal today is a trading signal for tomorrow/the following day · A pullback are at least two following days in the opposite direction; or · An opposite move that counters the price move of the preceding trend days · Ehlers entry definitions are applied I added un updated version of that chart, where I tried to rule out hindsight; i.e. where I would have entered the market, if I didnt knew the future, in yellow. So why differs this?
It's called RISK MANAGEMENT. You want to manage your risk for both entries and exits. For example, in all these "Trading for Beginner" books, they all say you're supposed to EXIT your losing trades pronto. Well, I say you really should be looking to only ENTER trades with the lowest risk of being stopped out. ---------------------------------- Regarding the chart, this was not my chart so I would probably not trade exactly like it's shown. However, I completely agree with buying/selling the pullbacks. For example, I could sell short at (1) as the price crosses below the low of the highest candle. You could also sell once Ehler crosses below the overbought line, but that would be too laggy IMO. Also the chart only shows you where to enter but not where to exit. For instance, (2) would be a good example. It would have turned out to be a losing trade no matter what. So the question is where should you have gotten out? Probably a tick or two above the high of the candle you entered. I didn't completely understood your question so ain't sure if any of them addresses your concerns. Let me know if you got more questions.
Mick; in the original Obvious "an additional small calculation" was necessary too... Is your example purely visual based?
Visual versus mathmatical? It's not visual because imo, when visually humans see things they see things with too much bias. About the markets being machines/robots, I'm more than ever convinced. The algos I write display it clearly. I'll give an example: Until basically yesterday when USA mkts had a very large breakout there was a pattern repeating continually. That pattern was: a) The majority of all sectors could not break above the prior quarter High. b) This month, the majority of stocks could not break above the last day of November. c) Those that did, many then immediately stalled. d) Currently all major indexes are just sitting below their ATH's. Russell 2000 is the exception at ~20% below, but notice it is now racing to catch up fast. The exceptions to the lagards were gold which initially was well ahead of the pack, then stalled to underperform, now it is similar to all other sectors. Other standout was uranium which like gold outperformed, now stalled to allow other sectors to catch up. Crypto atm is well ahead of the pack on all levels. Lithium is underperforming everything, but I think this because China has a stranglehold on lithium processing and somehow via hongkong/singapore exchanges are manipulating lithium price. Copper is another in the dog box, as well Energy (oil & gas). I track over 400 USA major stocks and commodities and another couple hundred on the ASX which look and compare levels, and I see this rythm play out, something will surge, then die briefly while something else takes a turn. Some sectors staying down for very prolonged times, atm copper, nickel, rare earths, lithium, natural gas, coal (was doing ok but now slumped), It's much easier to see and recognize this stuff in data form than visually via charts.
Here's the reality So what are the chances of the OP, or anyone, sharing secrets on a public internet site like this one... And, in fact, the OP states this in black and white (2nd to last paragraph): https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/why-is-the-obvious-not-so-obvious.151802/page-11#post-2340884
OP revealed it multiple times. But OP wasn't talking to trading experts like @schizo or @themickey because they already know how to trade and don't need the obvious to make money. OP was advising newbie traders who weren't profitable and were wondering why nothing worked for them.