Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

Discussion in 'Risk Management' started by nysestocks, Jan 25, 2009.

  1. Well, to be honest, I was not aware that buying swing lows and selling swing highs were considered mainstream trading techniques.

    Truth be told, it's been a long time since I seriously read any kind of how-to trading book as I also came to the same conclusion as nysestocks earlier in this thread regarding textbook information and so called educators. The better part of the last few years have actually been spent developing a trading model which is not chart based, but which is based on statistical data I developed myself as it seemed like a worthwhile pursuit.

    So, mainstream trading. What is it? My impression would be that this would be classical charting analysis with chart formations, i.e., double tops/triangles/head & shoulders/support/resistance and most importantly CHARTS. Some may employ indicators.

    But at the end of the day - mainstream trading would involve a CHART and interpretation of that in some kind of manner.

    To move away from mainstream trading and analysis - there have in fact been a few interesting members over the years who have specifically said that they do NOT use charts in their trading model or analysis at all. And suggests to newbies that their main focus should not be charts as that's what everyone else uses (and loses with).

    Yet, that does not seem to be the case with the philosophies put forth in this particular thread.
     
    #7181     May 14, 2021
    KCalhoun likes this.
  2. M4-1

    M4-1

    you are S.P.O.T on :)

    S _ _ _ _ _
    P _ _ _ _ _ _ _
    O _ _ _ _ _ _ :)
    T _ _ _ B _ _ _ _
     
    #7182     May 14, 2021
    Laissez Faire likes this.
  3. M4-1

    M4-1

    LRS with high probability of RTLWP

    Screenshot_2021-05-14-10-58-28-131_net.metaquotes.metatrader5.png
     
    #7183     May 14, 2021
  4. M4-1

    M4-1

    HRS with high certainty of HV !

    Screenshot_2021-05-14-11-03-01-512_net.metaquotes.metatrader5.png
     
    #7184     May 14, 2021
  5. It's very mainstream. It even has a name - swing trading.

    It often involves some of the other stuff you mentioned; support & resistance, indicators and other TA nonsense.
     
    Last edited: May 14, 2021
    #7185     May 14, 2021
  6. odlareg

    odlareg

    Everyday there is a certain range ready for the take. Whether there are charts or not. I like this approach too.

    GO
     
    #7186     May 14, 2021
    Laissez Faire likes this.
  7. I was not aware that's the definition of swing trading. The way I've understood swing trading is that it's defined by the time period of your hold which for swing trading is longer than day trading, but shorter than a long term hold. Not that you actually buy/sell swing lows/highs or otherwise the methodology used for your entry/exit criteria.

    Yes. It's an interesting approach which have given me some answers or perspectives that I'm not sure if I would have been able to using charts.

    Every day will have a day range going from High to Low or Low to High. That's the basic two types of days you have to play. It can't be any other way. You can of course divide your dataset further with more detail which may reveal further 'day types' and templates.

    Over a long enough time period - you'll see that Low to High days are a bit more common in the stock indices. About 60/40.

    It's my view that every single day will be a variation of a common theme and a repetition of the past. You have your most basic days which will shop up often and then you'll have some outlier days that are quite rare, but not anything that haven't really already happened.

    But I'm here to learn, not to ramble, so I better shut up. :)

    EDIT: I suspect this approach may not be compatible with the one proposed in this thread, because in a way it's prediction or assumption. And to quote nysestocks: If you ASSUME - you're making an ASS of U and ME. LOL. :)
     
    #7187     May 14, 2021
  8. How would you trade Bitcoin from here?

    I wonder what the obvious way is? :D

    btc.png
     
    #7188     May 17, 2021
    Onra likes this.
  9. Ed48

    Ed48

    He/she elaborates a bit further here:
    https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/why-is-the-obvious-not-so-obvious.151802/page-22#post-2345712

    Did anyone figure out the answer?
     
    #7189     May 17, 2021
    Onra likes this.
  10. "What do you do when a stock price is moving up and down?"

    Well, I suppose you could open both a long and a short position, with the same stop, and see which one wins? :D
     
    #7190     May 17, 2021