Read this post, then pull up a chart for the S&P for the period he's referring to. https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/why-is-the-obvious-not-so-obvious.151802/page-11#post-2340900 The majority were looking for a long entry but that wasn't the "obvious" thing to do.
You know that for a fact? The way I see it there's two types of swing high/low - fast and slow. With a fast swing you pretty much need to have a limit placed in advance, i.e., anticipating a move off a specific level or price target. R10 levels have been mentioned. In a way - this is predicting. You're predicting (or betting) that a bounce or drop will occur. If you wait too long for confirmation you're essentially late to the party and it's no longer LR. Then you have swing highs/lows that are rounded or revisited multiple times. Here, you have both more time and opportunity and confirmation to assume it's a swing high/low. These are easier to manage. Right now you have 48/50 as one such swing high on ES. It's a LR short entry. At the end of the day - while a low risk entry is key, it's the exit that makes you money. So, you got a low risk entry. Fine. What now? Where do you exit? And when? Will you risk one certain point of unrealized profit which you can know put into your pocket or will you hold for a much larger and more uncertain move?
Thanks for the link. I'm considering if I should actually start from page 1 and read through it. With all due respect to everyone involved, I'm not convinced that there is one thing such as the obvious to be found or understood and maybe this thread is one big smoke screen, but it certainly is a thread which makes you think and consider reality from multiple perspectives. And that alone ain't a bad thing. First, I need to finish that piece from Montaigne.
Yes because neither you, me or anyone else can see into the future. At any given point in time, price can do anything. You might think you see a swing low but you can only be certain with the benefit of hindsight.
Well, sure. But is it possible that there can exist a trading model which could identify swing highs/lows with a very high degree of certainty? Not 100 %, but maybe 90%? Equally, isn't it true that a real big player could effectively print a swing high/low in the market (if only for a brief period of time) if he so chooses?
It is 1) for CERTAIN depending to the TF you are watching. High volatiliticy demands a shorter TF. When we expand in the day I expand my settings. GO
Probably not but it doesn't stop an awful lot of people trying. It would certainly be one heck of a market anomaly if it was possible.
so my Achille's heel is that I am biased versus entering a trade at a pivot point, I know it is the hardest thing to do but I keep falling into this disastrous behavior. I know better and I am changing my ways but how f.king ingrained is this! Yet, I see form above posts that I am not alone
Most people assume, that to make money trading, you have to get in on the turn. When price is falling all they need to do is get in at the bottom. Some will try and predict in advance when it's going to turn (surely it can't go much lower), and often end up catching a falling knife. Even if you wait for an uptick, there's no guarantee that it will turn into a decent move up. It could just be a tiny respite before resuming the downtrend. Clearly, whatever the "obvious" is, it's definitely not this, and nysestocks confirms as much: https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/why-is-the-obvious-not-so-obvious.151802/page-19#post-2345564