It matters not what we think. Look to the options markets to know the probabilities. May the probabilities be with you!
He has at least one channel I know of regarding options. I would abide it more if I knew the fack about options, but out of respect I do not enter my sandman there, because I know nothing about what they are all doing in there. If you wish to gain access to it, send him a PM. He has a new journal going on... https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/2020-a-dest-odyssey.339081/ I hope you are learning lessons about respect at the end of 2019 here, sir.
With global stagflationary forces in effect, unrest in the plebian masses on every continent, GAI algorithms controlling the true wealth on the planet.....it is going to be boring as #+@K. The itinerary coming out of Davos 2020 looks like a bunch of placating statements. The Bond and Forex markets is where I will be focused on making gains. Akuma
Funny how the template does not look at all like what it is happening but the guy keeps using it LOL !!!! Anyways if those crashes were easily predictable everybody would get it right and trading would be a less profitable business than flipping burgers at McDonalds.
As posted in another part of the forum (slightly modified by year end): S&P closed 2019 at 3230,78 - yielding a 28,88 % gain on the year. Since 1950, the S&P 500 have been up more than 25 % on the year 13 times not counting 2019. The last time in recent years was 2013 with a gain of 29,60 %. Due to the current nominal pricing of the index, 2019 was also the largest yearly range in the S&P 500 ever at 803,97 points from high to low! Remarkably, the average yearly gain following such a year is 11,25 % with only 2/13 years closing negative. Let’s narrow it down further and look at years where… 1) The year gain was greater than 25 % 2) S&P opened at the bottom of the range and closed at the top 3) S&P made and closed at all time highs This have happened 10 times since 1950 with 2019 being the 11th time. For the following years we had an average yearly gain of 12,79 % with 9/10 years closing positively and a remarkable 10/10 years making all time highs. While I and everyone else may feel this market is nuts and feel it's 'time' we sell off, these numbers seems very bullish to me. While this analysis simplistic and purely technical while neglecting several other factors and uncertainties moving in to 2020, I think they're very interesting still. I could add some more detail regarding all of the years in the sample making new all time highs: The minimum upside gain (looking at the single year with a negative close) was 4,63 %. The mean was 16,49 %. The largest was 28,99 %. Extrapolating from those numbers then we could see a high reading by 2020 of a) Minimum 3380 b) A mean expectation of 3763 c) A maximum of 4167. Finally, assuming a modest 10% yearly gain in 2020 - we should see a close at 3554 on the S&P 500. Predicting a year ahead seems foolish to me, but it's interesting to me to see how the technicals seems to be very bullish following a year like 2019.