I been studying and reading charts now almost four decades, TA is not the only game in town, cause once you can read a chart, TA is hardest to learn if you try to study that first. But let's face it, people flock to what is pretty or looks good, and methods that are hardest to learn, they rather not learn and memorize, which is GREAT, as most who start with TA become swept into the gutter and quit to make up the 95% is lose.
Good work. Before you start, see your grid in your mind's eye. Now color the bars according to their Dominance. Who won the bar? Bull or Bears? Color that bar appropriately. See the image in your mind's eye again. Notice the difference from the result of work. The bars can be sorted into 3 piles. What is the parameter to have a sort result in three piles? When we slow down and look how a bar is built, there is a minimum of two paths for every bar. Notice the path of least resistance and the path of greatest volatility. We are not privy to this information at our view of an EOB dataset, yet it's something we can discern by the context of the overall price and volume action. The move you describe became the non-Dominant traverse of the larger channel. We wouldn't know that at the time. So where there is less risk is to shift attention to the LTL. It's like the tachometer on a car, it responds quicker than the speedometer to the acceleration/deacceleration of price movement. The slope of this TL is your Pace. Bar 16,17 bound a shift in sentiment. We look at the Faster Fractal First. It gave an FTT at Bar 18 the inside bar. We didn't know it at the time. This is the Dominant move of the Bar15,16 channel slower channel, yet as we come to see there was no bounce off the trendline that channel projected (-Pc, decreasing Pace). At that time it was valid, Bar25 could have easily been the same volume but in the opposite direction. Thus completing a normal trend -> b2b2r2b. The close of bar19 gave us a XO of the RTL on lower volume showing itself as the non-Dominant traverse. AE has already reversed bwt Bar 17, 18 carving the turn through DOM. They anticipate Turn A since it always comes after Turn C. We know turn C is over because Pace is no longer increasing, therefore Volume is decreasing, a point 2 has occurred, a traverse is complete, enlargement of the current channel. Now off for another adventure ! Advance one peak in your monitoring will make a difference in your offset. Be an early participant in high volume moves in the dominant direction. Then, invoke retro to drop into the sub-fractal for the A turn of the Sym which follows peaks in an anticipatable manner. Reverse and Hold is easiest on this turn but only because we know Turn B is on deck. Even if Turn B doesn't show even better, we are already in the best position for the new Dominant direction as well as have the least amount at risk if we mis-ID'd and have to reverse to get back on the right side of the market. Two reverses and the water pump isn't working, sideline, relax, take a breather and ID the next Dominant Turn. More differentiation creates more opportunity. Thank you, much appreciated. Happy Trading to You!
100% agree. What is going on atm with this thread's chatter is nearly all waffle. Trying to decipher bar by bar and thinking there are cycles, repeatability, and magic answer to patterns is hocus pocus. And the old favourite, the more complicated the analysis with myriads of trend lines zooming here and there will somehow foretell the future. Truth101 started this thread well, but the 'mob' have taken over and derailed it.
Upward-sloping, neutral and downward-sloping. All the bars have the same volatility, but in some bars there's more volatility in the trend (open-close) component, and in others there's more volatility in the wick. I'd assume more than one volume bar then, because one volume bar doesn't tell much. For two or more volume bars, you can have rising and declining (delta) volume, accompanied with rising or declining price action. Maybe there are other perspectives on this? All my backtesting efforts confirms the same, you want to focus on slope changing in your favour, and not stay in dreamland when adverse effects start to accumulate. Maybe volume can be used in conjunction with the degree of bullishness/bearishness in the grid above? Seems this thread is the wrong one for this discussion, is there some other thread this discussion could continue or should we create one?
In building the mind, there is a very critical path. The path is frought with the distractions of doubt, confusion and paradox. Doubt Has a function. It's function is to slow down thinking from flowing with forward with new ideas to getting stuck in the hamster wheel of the mind. Thoughts are things. They have gravity. The more frequently one thinks a thought the more it magnetizes other similar thoughts. Yes, start a journal and any who find value in growth will follow along. Those who don't offer tremendous value to the marketplace. Be the one who takes the full offer of the market operating from a full dataset vs who operate from an incomplete one. They come to the markets not necessarily for the financial payoff but the emotional one. An analogy is like someone trying to drive a car without understanding all the controls and instead of looking out the windshield, thinking the the rear-view mirror is the way forward. They've become accustomed to unknowing and the resulting emotions of fear, anxiety and frustration. Mental fossilization is irreversible without the intention for growth. Pain is the only fertile ground for new concepts to grow for folks with this self-chosen condition. Thinking has become too difficult for it's up against the morass of associations that trigger unpleasant emotions. The above become embodied. They become a walking trigger of an emotional minefield. The search for truth starts with recognition. As one builds momentum, things become clearer by building capacity. Yet truth shows itself in all aspects on one's life, not just it trading. It shows up in all the trepasses real or imagined suffered in one's life. Integrity is the basis. In other words, it brings up our baggage that we can choose to deal with or not. I can say this because I have lived through it and have come to realize that my own judgements were what was being reflected back to me in my participation in the markets. And as with markets, there is what came before, what's happening now and what must come next. It's all learnable skills to an open mind Many thanks to the OP for the workspace to explore alternatives to the majority view.
Clarification, on recent posts I like within this topic. I like everything within those posts EXCEPT the idea they might be inappropriate for this topic. Please ignore the notorious multi-alias trolls and carry on.
@Simples @Sprout @dratsum Perhaps someone can wake me up when trades are placed and share some trade stats with with expert in-depth analysis?
@Sprout , @dratsum : I've created this thread and hope this discourse may continue in some fashion there: https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/on-10-case-geometry-and-beyond.310880/ I can't trade these concepts yet, but hope to get a better understanding, and constructive posters are welcome to join in as well. I think the concepts can stand on their own merits, by logic, and should be understood as a way to annotate the market first and foremost, not as trading or investment signals.
For the love of god, ask these yahoos to show you their performance with this analysis. ET is littered with these "gurus" teaching for free, and the truth of the matter is they can't trade for shit themselves. Ask yourself this, if their win rate is barely 50%, which I'm sure it is, then how much of this study is really what is moving the markets if they get it wrong half the time? Shit, ask them to even show they are trading. You have been warned and I refrain from wasting any more time until someone can show some application of this with trades for analysis.