On 10-case geometry and beyond

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by Simples, Jul 3, 2017.

  1. Simples

    Simples

    Creating this thread inspired by TA-discourses in this thread from this post onwards:
    https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...-traders-out-there.310671/page-3#post-4475964

    Instead of trying to summarize (dumb down) a creative Q&A-session, it is best to try to follow the posts and replies in that thread first, preferably try to deduct and analyze for oneself in order to confirm and learn/refer to some of the concepts presented.

    @Sprout : My hope is we could continue where we left off here, and not be bothered or bothering people who are not open to different ideas about TA.

    In my own journey, although I've been exposed to alot of TA-concepts, but never really got to use it much myself. It seems everyone has their own ideas about TA, and most ideas are utterly confused, so important to gain clarity, and remain humble despite success or failures.

    A problem that has haunted me with trading, is how to establish the "right" context. Often we focus on too short timeframes, and get blasted by higher timeframes. So I'm wondering, what if you start at The "highest timeframe", and analyze down top-bottom? How to make sense of it. Here's an example, and on EOQ bars seems to be without SYM:

    dk_pndora_quarterly.png

    I've made a few annotations, the ones I think should be correct according to previous discourse. Guessing direction seems easier on higher timeframes, although of course the risk needs to be lowered, and maybe there's more information to be gleamed from this chart?

    Does this make sense, or is there more information on lower timeframes (TF), and we get more information from there? Then this TF could be just to establish dominant direction (and we can find counter-movements and better entries on lower TFs?)

    I do like the way trendlines may signal breakouts, and may be adjusted by pt3s and pt2s as well, and am interested in examples how to read volume.

    Is it good to start with a big picture like this (this is all the bars for this particular stock, which is Danish).

    CC: @dratsum and others that might be interested in this topic, and hopefully more people can chime in and gain some benefit, though I will suggest replies be within the framework discussed here and in the other thread.

    This is all meant to be education material, and in no way suggestions for trades or investments.
     
    Last edited: Jul 3, 2017
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  2. Sprout

    Sprout

    Thank you for starting this thread.

    If we go back to the 5x5 grid that has the real body colored. Extend the coloring so that the high and low tails are colored as well. The doji's are different. They remain colored how they are.
    The bars can be sorted into three piles. The piles are the number of legs that are within a bar. How many of these bar cases are in each pile?

    A leg is defined as a movement in price from moment in time A to moment in time B, both occurring within a single bar.

    The doji begins to come into view. Interesting enough, regardless of the organizing logic one uses to construct it, the doji's appear in a certain zone. If we go through a price chart and use a pencil to keep track of which of these prices show up on the grid and where, we begin to discern movements across this grid.

    This next piece can be observed only by a live chart. As a bar builds notice the doji. Where price came from to get to it, and where price went after it's appearance on a single bar.

    This next drill supports the doji distinction. Take a PV bar chart. The annotation exercise is to draw a line from the H of the first bar to the L of the next bar if long. If short then draw a line from the L of the first bar to the H of the next bar. The resulting chart should look like a zigzag with no gaps between bars.

    We are moving to ID'ing turns with the help of volume. The above drills are supportive to view the distinction.
     
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  3. Simples

    Simples

    I'm happy, and honoured, to continue. Here's the bar-permutations with full session colouring:


    oc-permutations-rotated_coloured3.png









    With legs to run on:

    oc-permutations-rotated_coloured_legs.png


    1 leg: 2
    2 legs: 14
    3 legs: 9

    Doji's seems to share properties with bars "almost doji".

    I'll be back! :)
     
  4. Sprout

    Sprout

    Comments within quoted text.
     
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  5. Sprout

    Sprout

    Do the same drill with the 1st grid.


    Another way of describing the legs of bars is the opposite side of the coin. This is a different context. We shift context to describe a phenomenon to produce insight. We work to form a complete system.

    That there are 3 legs to every bar. There are Two bars with the 1st AND 3rd missing. Fourteen bars with the 1st OR 3rd missing. Nine Bars with all legs present.

    One of either side of the coin will have this following statement be true: ALL 2nd Legs of Bars are the Dominant Sentiment.

    Which one?

    What is Dominant Sentiment?
     
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  6. Simples

    Simples

    Grid-items numbered like this below:


    oc-permutations-numbered.png

    Finding intrabar movements going from one extreme to the other on the diagram, of course the market "turning on a dime" and rounding off tops in either 1 or more bars:

    dk_pndora_eod.png

    I've drawn lines according to "colour" of the latest bar (bar #1) below, which shows some nice dynamics. As price FTT in congestion zones, the lines zig-zag (chop), while lines level off during accelerated moves:

    dk_pndora_eod_doji_bias2.png

    Posting this for now as need more time to look into the other parts :)

    Some working music:



    UPDATE: Horizontal grid with colour and legs.

    Legs seems correllated with agreement / disagreement:
    • 1 leg means no disagreement.
    • 2 legs means either open or close is in agreement with high or low.
    • 3 legs means both open and close is disagreeing with high and low.

    oc-permutations_coloured.png


    1-leg is pure dominance (for that timeframe).
    Dominance will complete with the last leg (close).
    2-legs ends leg #2 with a close, so leg #2 is dominant sentiment.

    So the 14 bars will all have 2nd leg dominant.

    Dominant sentiment will be the winning direction (the one who laughs last! :D).

    @Sprout
     
    Last edited: Jul 3, 2017
  7. Simples

    Simples


    (Updated bottom of previous post with other replies.)


    Volume peaks seems to be alternating (green, red), also with price extremes (topping/bottoming/extreme movement):

    dk_pndora_eod_doji_bias2_volume_peaks.png

    Link to online chart.
     
  8. Sprout

    Sprout

    K. Now that you have a catalog of ends. We take that chart and draw a thicker line that connects all the pairs of bar's to define and see trend segments.

    For example, 4,5,8 is a trend segment long, 8,9,10 is a trend segment short, 10,11 long, etc,...
    You are drawing a line along the long axis of the parallelogram/s. (The longest line that can be made)

    The long axis is the middle of profit taking segments. The ends are peaks of bars - HH and LL in any given traverse.
     
    Last edited: Jul 3, 2017
  9. Simples

    Simples

    Assuming we want to avoid BO of given TL, using RTL and extending that:

    dk_pndora_eod_tls.png

    Kind of like laserbeams this, separating PA.

    BO on 9-10th May signals end of bullishness (on this chart).
    19th May and 13th Jun has rising bullish volume while breaking high volume TLs.
    1st Jul has bullish volume and exceeds volume as far back as 15th May, which is already BO.
    Possible change of sentiment? Also HL on higher TF between 29 May and 29 Jun on lower bearish volume. After this only one bearish TL not BO or FBO remaining.

    UPDATE: 1st Jul is also VE, although earliest in possible long trend, volume is there short-term.
     
    Last edited: Jul 3, 2017
  10. Sprout

    Sprout

    When annotating tapes, traverses and channels the convention is gray/blk thin, next thicker line different color less opaque, next thicker line same color more opaque. Next Channel's tapes are gray/blk thin, then different color less opaque, next thicker line same color more opaque. By cycling through colors one begins to see the ocean of waves resulted from the combined activities of all the participants. However we need to keep track of different channels by change of color. This ocean of waves has nodal points where the various cycles line up. This is the basic idea behind monitoring the tri-pane of daily, 30min and 5min or some variation thereof. When each are increasing volume in the direction of price, a nodal point is present and most likely an increase in pace is/will occur within the bar. The part that mess people up is shifting from EOB monitoring and then dropping intrabar when trading without having the tool of PRV in place.

    If volume isn't giving enough information on one's fractal one needs to go the next aggregate timeframe. However when doing this one always notes that liquidity in decreasing and therefore on the lookout for a surge of volatility to arrive. PRV shows this before EOB.

    The basic aesthetic is to increase clarity with annotations and not have any unnecessary lines that aren't relevant to present price action. (They might become relevant in the future as it comes into now)



    Thank you for posting your work.

    I miscommunicated, more like this:

    dk_pndora_eod_doji_bias2_volume_peaks-debrief.jpg

    This next piece is difficult for many to grasp - that this next possibility exists.

    We are identifying trend segments that are profit opportunities. This is the standard we are building our minds to allow us to perceive in realtime. We are creating a space in our minds to perceive what comes before a two-bar combo and what comes after. Trends migrate with each successive bar as recycling two bar combos and in the case of laterals, multi-bar combos.


    We are cruising through a bunch of concepts, super great! We are taking a high-altitude view, what is unsaid, is that to embody these concepts into the unconscious requires the drills to be done by hand. Hand drawn is better than programming for now.

    For all programming is limited by the consciousness of the programmer's own understanding of concepts.

    We want to build a sense of muscle memory, so in real time with money on the line, one doesn't stop breathing and get stupidified by the jiggle jiggle of PA.
    Like a high-performance athlete, repetition is key. The drills (if done over and over) will get stored into one's LTM and served up at the right moment as "Knowing that you know."

    A milestone is to annotate 50 charts in the manner we have described so far as well as keeping a log of questions that naturally arise as one applies the concepts to particular situations.

    That can happen simultaneously as we progress the conversation but know that is where the real work lies waiting.
     
    Last edited: Jul 3, 2017
    #10     Jul 3, 2017
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