An observation from me, a self made peasant trader, one who just tills the field of my hobby 'trading field' day in day out.... 1/. Re SPX/SP500, if you look at a 5 year chart, log scale, there is no doubt price is running up very hard, more so than usually. 2/. The more pessimistic and shorted the market becomes, the more likely a continuation upward. 3/. Price gapped up the 1st March and under normal circumstances from my experience a gap up on a hard running position will get filled by a retracement in the very short term, eg 1 week. 4/. I'm seeing lots of conflicting signals in the Mkt, very difficult to know, but my experience tells me SPX will continue up failing a black swan event, however in short term it may close that recent gap. 5/. Currently very little volatility, therefore not indicating a top. 6/. The fundamentalists say apparently valuations are becoming expensive. 7/. As time goes on, traders/investors/algos/dumb and smart money get cleverer, more cunning, more educated re trading, therefore to outsmart the Mkt, the old rules re what to expect may no longer apply. 8/. The harder this runs the greater chance of a spectacular correction, I was thinking a few weeks back a soft landing was in order, but not so sure about that now. Conclussion, if you put a gun to my head and said "what will it be", I'd be going long and rate that about 90% probability over the coming week to weeks Black Swan event excluded.
What gives right? Why sell $2 calls in SPY? I mean I don't mind the call. I just don't get the selling of calls and even more annoying, why SPY calls over ES calls. Span margin! Come on. It's amateur hour here. This market could crash and this guy is going to take the equivalent of 20 ES handles out of the move. That will really make him look like an ass.
I look at this... http://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-data ...and am still trying to find a "top". What is the definition of a "top"? Over what timeframe? The thread title is a bit ambiguous there.
SPX 2009 Bear market low * fib 261.8% added to it gets 2412.45 or a mere 29 points from Friday's close.
Hey @propwarrior , no disrespect to you, but I see you really taking the position here that the OP is totally out to lunch, and yet, I still very fondly remember your thread about how we need to buckle up, 50% off equities, gold will be higher, QE4, etc. So I don't know, but a fabulously wrong call needs to be kept in perspective when evaluating what you have to say. https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/buckle-up-guys-its-starting.302641/