Discussion in 'Trading' started by volente_00, Dec 20, 2018.
I say the bottom is in on the S&P 500 at 2441
We will bounce 200 handles from here
Usually bottoms are frantic selling with A TON of news coverage. I usually get a few facebook messages from my buddies who were long some stocks and are not to sure what to do. I don't see any of that right now. I say we got another 5%- 10% to go
Friday ex dividend on SPY holders. I saw SPY crack 245 bounce up a bit. Lets see, hopefully More selloff Friday.
The next small leg down will have thousands of ETF investors calling Vanguard and Fidelity to sell their positions. They're already sweating from having a flat year, and it won't take much more to push them into the fear zone.
When that happens, the bottom may be a long way down.
What's your rationale?
You first called a bottom here at 2750.
Then a bottom on Monday:
And I think maybe a few others also.
Eventually, you will be right. Personally, I think we have more downside left as the momentum remains strong on the down side for now. I also think it's unnecessary to try and pick a bottom. One can wait and let the market show it's hands first. Right now, I don't see any bottom.
A 50 point up swing is peanuts in this environment. We're also down 30 points on that one now and there's an hour left to the close.
I think these type of calls have a lot more value if one can offer the analysis backing it.
PS: I did chuckle at the fourth vote alternative.
Nope no even close!
S$p will be breaking below 2400 soon...yes there will be a bounce in the short term but the bottom is not in, expect a drop below 2000 in 2019!!!!
I know a few people that maxed out their contributions in 2018 at $24,500....they started putting money in funds in the last decade. Yes they are up substantially with this last bull market taking place however they have never witnessed a bear market before. I told them to get ready for it because they are going to see a 1/3 of their portfolio gone within a year!
Something odd is going on here.
There is a vested interest in keeping prices high. Most are compensated in part as a % of assets under management. We are getting close to the end of a quarter.
Couple this with mark to market - where a little can make a big difference. Meaning there should be more support.
Usually a market will implode when several or one especially large very highly leverage position goes under. No news on this.
Perhaps we are getting a lot of margin calls and stops being shot out.
I do not know how to put the whole story together but the decline in oil prices is perhaps the primary force in pushing stock prices lower. There has to be a lot of exposure to loans tied to oil prices.
Big time Kudos to those that held a short position for an extended period of time. Most of us were conditioned for a reversal.
The only thing that saved me was that I never keep much in my trading account. I would have shot the wad.
When are you just gonna close your losing trades and look for new trades?
I thought that was odd also.
Even though i view falling oil better than a tax cut , unless one runs an oil co with lots of debt; but oil sure went down in 2008 .Even though i never though there was much of a correlation-oil has no earnings .
What really seemed odd,+ i liked the guy. But closing the markets saying it was for Pres Bush seemed like an attempted prop up+ which did not work.IF i was daytrader,i might do a buy on DEC31, with good buy volume+ price above 200dma. BUT OCT + Nov last day had such bad buy volume, in QQQ i'm not hopeful for a reversal now.
The good news is the media is till talking about intraday highs; but failing to mention most funds price @ close..........................................................................
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