That was EXACTLY the trade I was going to reference! That was a great example because I spent a great deal at the time talking about how the entire market was positioned the other way. The bid in bonds made absolutely no sense from a fundamental standpoint. Many were predicting a bond crash. The squeeze on bonds from that day forward was epic.
Great thread. I've read the book but only 40 pages here so far. I've dabbled in the ES using the profile but couldn't get consistent with it. But I've learned a lot. Playing around with ACD. A lot of the stuff that Fisher says actually overlap with stuff that Dalton says for MP. Anyway, I do like the simplicity of ACD so thought I'd watch some charts. I looked up stocks with high ATR as a percentage of price and that have high volume. I like the idea of chart much more than the ES because u have more product to work with and can more easily apply the 'next' principle. Anyone else here looking at stocks? Here is an example from today in SQ. A up was rejected. Potential entry at around $49.14 (following confirmation with red down bar next to arrow). 40 cent stop with potential 80 cent target (2:1 RR). Price was rejected at OR low so profit should be take. Possibly around $48.60 which results in around 50 cent profit.
So Mav, just curious what asset classes you are trading nowadays? I am under the impression it's mostly energy spreads. I have also noted your recommendation that traders move toward spreading as they get more experienced. So am wondering if you trade flat price at all anymore.
Here is another ACD trade in MU on Friday. Blue line shows pivot. OR is mostly above the pivot. A up is dotted red line. I consider that A up was "accepted" and give us a long bias. Price found support at high of OR. Entry as price starts to come back up (as per Fisher). Exit on close.
I trade everything! My biggest trades this year have been in oil and gas options. But my next biggest trade category has been the short bond trade and third probably crypto. I still trade flat price but I'm always hedged to some degree. This has been one of my best trading years ever thanks to the comeback in vol. I think this will continue for a couple of years so you better take advantage of it.
Nice! I got some of the bond trade too. I was in it but got out after it wicked at the qtr level, then got in again a week later but got spooked out of it on the huge spike day in early Feb, so didn't make a lot on it. My best was USD/JPY... classic ACD setup on that one!
Here is a failed ACD trade in SQ. A up (red dotted line) gives long bias but long entry leads to stop. Run up was perhaps too quick and too far?