Hi Maverick, Thanks for the reply. Totally agree, (nice bid under the mkt). Regarding getting chopped Tuesday I was still looking down when I should have been looking up, (finally). That said, I should have known, given the covering that began at the end of this week's OR, (in almost everything I look at). Thanks again for the reply, this is a great thread, and it's nice to be able to bounce things off of folks who have been doing this longer than me!
Nice set-up for a counter-trend ACD trade on SPY today. Based on 15 minute opening range and an "A" value of 0.4, the "A Down" was almost exactly on top of the (H+L+C)/3 pivot point. SPY bounced right off it and never looked back.
Keep MCO on your radar, look at todays actions/daily chart...Marks got a chapter in his book about those type of reversal patterns that span over multiple days (forgot what he calls it, but outside reversal day patterns that engulf multiple days prior) ....keep watching that one, your going to get a some nice TIGHT stop SS setups that you can potential really leverage up on...3671 is a key level to sell big size into (for this week)...plus add on some daily OR and daily PP for a tighter sell level...plus we all know these rating firms are shit and Einhorn is a big bear and short.
i'll be playing this one the next week...just read ken shaleen's book on options, i might try to play this one with options, i got about 7k of throw away capital to experiment with the options mkt for some MCO trades...I'll keep you updated on my ACD analysis and trades these next few days...your input is also needed, what is everyone else looking at, ACD wise...?
Hey JSmooth, I'm looking at F. Despite the decent report Tuesday they tanked along with the broader market anyway. I managed a weekly a down, off the back of two dailies in a row. I'd expect weak strength today and further pain tomorrow. I'm not really a guesser, but based on what I'm seeing, (D.C. etc) I think there's plenty more pain to come in the short-term, but that said, no reason to take any new positions this week.
Watch the 30 year bonds. We confirmed a monthly A up and we failed at the weekly about 4 times but then broke above today. Tomorrow is the last day of the month which means we get new levels next week. I get the feeling the world is massively short bonds and the price action is very strong. These bonds could really explode to the upside regardless of the debt ceiling news. This is the trade to watch in my opinion. I think everyone is leaning the wrong way. I would look at the weekly levels next week after we get the news to take action. Spoos are sitting on their monthly levels. We already bounced off of them twice to the tick. But with tomorrow being the end of the month, I would wait for next month's levels to take action.
What opening ranges do you use for weekly and monthly levels? I would think that, since there are about 24 15 minute bars in a day, then the week's opening range would be about 5 hours and the month's the first day's range? I assume that the "A" levels are derived off of the monthly and weekly ATRs as well.
I ended up watching MCO at the open, but that thing just didnt move (wasnt volitile enough for me), and i think it could be a 2-3 days before see a major move....ill just wait to be a seller once it breaks 35 (seems like Res on the chart). Instead ended up looking at options on the $SPX...ended up buying 5 Aug 1250 Puts during slow lunch trade when we where sitting right below the pivot (on SPY - around 131.45 - if i remember) - bought 5 on a 9.50 bid. SPY/SPX/ES was above the opening prints but seemed like an A up fail, so my stop (and still currently is) a SPX cash close above the July Opening, or a day thats very well bid on the Aug first trade... At around 2:15CT, I was long 5, I tried bidding on 3 more cars once the SPY broke below the day OR (130.60 - C DOWN) - was placing the order on the BID, never got filled tho...so ended the day still holding 5. First support/place i'm looking to cover 1285 (200day MA on SPX daily)... not sure what my greek exposure is...but i'd be selling the Vega at vix 28-30. The drop after the 'no vote' is around this level, so i may be considering closing tomorrow morning if the market goes bid (opens down, is bid, and never really makes an A down), and the VIX is not moving up (from the open)...on days like this, the first place i look for is the 50% fib of the gap... But I'm staying short on this one right now and hopefully i can find a place to add and really push it tomorrow morning The trade RIGHT NOW....is playing the 4320 level on the 6e (from the long and short side
Dont worry about specific levels/times....you need to just understand about the whole concept of ACD....any level can be an A level (but it must be a point in time that someone, buyer or seller, is pushing the market (and getting fills aggresively - they dont care that they are paying up to buy, buying the offer and placing new bids...) , and you combine that info with the "avg volitility"/ATR to see if they are keep coming back to buy or are done buying and the market makes a failed A level...your not trying to identify A ups and downs....your trying to understand what is going on with the T&S - someone comes in and buys (Aup), or he just buys, then stops (failed Aup), or hes buying the first few hours (Aup), then stops and sellers come in (C down - now all those buyers are stuck short)....
interesting...when it comes to %rates; throughout the day i'll just watch the 2/10spread...ill sell anything under 260bp right now...i am watching the italians, if they go over 7, i'll be looking for a place to buy USD$