Riding the Inflection Point

Discussion in 'Journals' started by maximumpossiblesuffering, May 12, 2019.

Side Bet on MaximumPossibleSufferings 2019 Peformance. Poll closes on 6-30-2019.

Poll closed Jun 30, 2019.
  1. Crushes SP 500 Performance - You are on you way, although your path may change couse.

    2 vote(s)
    33.3%
  2. Beats - You have many ideas, but will be better served by focusing on just a few of them.

    1 vote(s)
    16.7%
  3. No Better than Average - You over complicate things and your lack of a consistant plan hurts.

    1 vote(s)
    16.7%
  4. Worse than Average - Retail vs Wall Street with their legions of smart, advanced degrees.

    2 vote(s)
    33.3%
  5. Blows Up - Soon after you feel the sting of a big loss, you will trade bigger to get it back.

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  6. For ElOchoCinco - Huge empty basket of Fvcks to give.

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  1. Closed long MGCM2019 at 1297.40 on penetration of a minor intraday support level. Will keep the calendar.
     
    #11     May 15, 2019
  2. Attached below is trade blotter for today. In retrospect, NQ was easy to trade today by buying a countertrend bar or two. Even fading 5 minute wide range up bars after 10:30 ET would have been profitable for 10 points or so a few times, using a 10 point stop as well as a 10 minute time stop.

    upload_2019-5-15_15-12-40.jpeg

    Looking to add another gold option calendar spread on favorable price action.

    upload_2019-5-15_15-24-26.jpeg

    NQM 5 minute RTH only Chart.
     
    #12     May 15, 2019
  3. Chased a bearish position on ES last night and got burned. Sold 1 ES April 22 2800 put, bought 1 ES April 24 2800 put at a net debit of 4.00 when ES was down 10 points. ES is now up 10 points and the current spread price is 3.05/3.35. I will throw in the towel on this trade if we take out the week’s highs on the indexes convincingly.

    Bonds are about unchanged today and have been seemingly stubborn to go down in the face of a rising stock market. The Fed must really be stimulating things. However, gold is disappointing so far. It deems unnatural the low volatility in the precious metals complex right now.

    Don’t fight the Fed, they said.
     
    #13     May 16, 2019
  4. Blotter with trades attached below:

    upload_2019-5-16_21-12-45.jpeg

    There is nothing wrong with being conservative, especially when adjustments are being made. When there is a lull in my stupid mistake making and my workflow becomes more efficient, I will go to my stated money management plan.
     
    #14     May 16, 2019
  5. Attached below are trades for today:

    upload_2019-5-17_16-2-38.jpeg

    My win rate is 16.6% and my P/L ratio is .66 on completed trades today including 1 overnight trade.

    Interestingly, my Emicro scalping trades were profitable for the week with a 75% win rate and a unimpressive P/L ratio.

    I ended the day and week with no open positions. I will post IB’s portfolio performance report for the week after it comes our either on Saturday or Monday.

    My overall trading performance this week was horrible and related to the following reasons:

    1. Time frame overload.
    This is a big leak for me right now and my lack of a coherent ruleset for managing some of these trades exposed me to unnecessary “large” losses.

    My adjustment will be to reduce my timeframes to one week and to focus on technical analysis.


    2. Over emphasis on correlated assets and long term fundamentals for trading decisions.
    This causes me to lose focus and weakens my decision making process.

    I shall place more emphasis on the instrument in play and technical analysis.


    3. Taking known negative expectation trades.
    I am still handicapped by the notion that a weak relative strength correlated asset is somehow a bargain even though I seem to lose 90% on these trade situations. I am talking about my long platinum trade. At least I knew the trade was in trouble quickly, and exited before my stop was hit, saving me about $100. Note: My 30 share PPLT (Platinum ETF) was a resting order that got hit about the time I exited the futures. I decided to keep the ETF trade against logic. At least I didn’t hold it overnight. I actually briefly thought of shorting PL, which would have been a nearly pain free profitable trade. At least I’m slowly learning.

    I shall not enter a trade in an underperforming correlated asset class in hopes it will “Catch up” any more.


    4. Missing well-established high probability setups.
    a) Allowing myself to be distracted by social media and other outside influences.
    b) Not taking adequate time to prepare for trading day.
    Not preparing and multitasking while trading leads to weak trading decisions. It is better to anticipate than react.

    I shall prepare before each trading day and only trade when I don’t have other things to attend to during my time available for trading.


    Although I would rather not have Elite Traders know how much of an trading idiot I am, The great thing about keeping a public journal with a blotter is it forces me to ‘splain myself and my trades. I end up being more through in my self-analysis than would otherwise be the case.

    I have several setups that provide a positive expectation. My key to profitability is to reduce my trading leaks, focus on good setups, and treat trading as a profession.

    After a profitable week, I will increase my risk tolerance to previously stated levels.
     
    #15     May 17, 2019
  6. Overnight

    Overnight

    I find it refreshing. It keeps us honest. After all, nobody knows you personally, so why care if they think yer an idiot?
     
    #16     May 17, 2019
  7. qlai

    qlai

    #17     May 17, 2019
  8. destriero

    destriero

    You're a bag of cats, Bro. Social media influences?! Trade what you see.
     
    #18     May 17, 2019
    .sigma and Frederick Foresight like this.
  9. Overnight

    Overnight

    Des wins the ET-weirdest-subtle-insult-of-the-year-award-of-the-day-thing, issued bi-monthly.
     
    #19     May 17, 2019
    .sigma likes this.
  10. https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/dunning-kruger-journal.323177/page-2#post-4694821

    .
    El OchoCinco
    Forgot the option of:

    Huge empty basket of fucks to give

    #11 Jul 23, 2018Report
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    destriero likes this.


    I hope I didn’t offend ElOchoCinco. I remembered his comment in my other journal and thought it would be funny to include his comment in the poll of this journal.
     
    #20     May 17, 2019