Dunning Kruger Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by maximumpossiblesuffering, Jul 22, 2018.

Side Bet on MaximumPossibleSuffering's Trading Performance

Poll closed Sep 2, 2018.
  1. Crushes SP500 Performance

    3 vote(s)
    30.0%
  2. Beats

    1 vote(s)
    10.0%
  3. No Better than Average

    1 vote(s)
    10.0%
  4. Worse than Average

    2 vote(s)
    20.0%
  5. Blows Up

    3 vote(s)
    30.0%
  1. Forgot the option of:

    Huge empty basket of fucks to give
     
    #11     Jul 23, 2018
    destriero likes this.
  2. destriero

    destriero

    I know it's day one and early, but two pages without a trade? Are we mutual fund switching at the end of day here?
     
    #12     Jul 23, 2018
  3. "El OchoCinco, post: 4694821, member: 35483"]Forgot the option of:

    Huge empty basket of fucks to give
    And yet, you're here. Do you realize there could be a stray cat out there left unattended? I am going to keep you on a short leash on this thread. Feel free to criticize my bad trading, but lose the mindless garbage please.

    "destriero, post: 4694826, member: 485336"]I know it's day one and early, but two pages without a trade? Are we mutual fund switching at the end of day here?
    Actually, it is day 11. Will post screenshots of prior trades on Wednesday or Thursday. I did buy VXX and lost .06 on small size for a daytrade. Have much to post but no time.
     
    #13     Jul 23, 2018
    vanzandt likes this.

  4. There has to be actual trades to criticize....
     
    #14     Jul 23, 2018
  5. destriero

    destriero

    Day 11? You're going to post trades two weeks after the fact? You call yourself an Elite Traderrrr? Seriously though. I manage OPM, my family's cash and my IRA and I sit here mindlessly posting during the trading day, as you do as well. You're telling me that you can comment in the feedback thread but you can't post your trades?!
     
    #15     Jul 23, 2018
  6. Another ET Journal posting trades at the end of the day....that happened in the past... hours ago.

    Ok I will contribute...I bought 1500 shares of GOOGL @ $1,199 on the Disney exchange.
     
    #16     Jul 23, 2018
    destriero likes this.
  7. I am a independent contractor. Although I have flexibility with how long I take off, when I'm under contract I have almost no extra time to spare. I trade and post on my breaks or when I should be sleeping.

    I can throw up quick entry and stop information if you want, but the main purpose for this thread is to include my reasoning for my trades, entry points, exit points, and stops. I literally try to save seconds off each task I do throughout the day when I'm on a job.

    It is interesting to note how low the VIX is and especially when considering we have a Trump Presidency. There are a lot of diplomatic and trade balls in the air with many countries right now. On top of this, there are early indications of potential slowdown in short term manufacturing and transportation industry metrics. Some of this is related to disminished accelerated buying related to beating new trade tariffs and some is related to the annual new vehicle model changeover. However, we are getting near the end of month and volumes seem to be declining instead of the normal end of month rise. I'm not alarmed yet, but risk of unfavorable leading indicator related reports in a couple of months is increasing. I will keep you posted on any further developments.

    Now to highlight my one trade today. Because I'm about to pass out, I'm going to leave out detailed premarket analysis and current risk management parameters.

    I tentatively identified today as a trading range day based on low European session ranges and premarket activity. I did not identify any compelling news.

    I was debating shorting ITA at the open. Premarket it appeared to be going to open up. My plan was to short it at the open and risk $.20. The target would have been the previous session's low. I did not take the trade because it opened unchanged. The basis for my short idea for this outperforming ETF was related to a reversion to the mean idea and international moneyflows. Feel free to flame me for trend fighting.

    I then decided to wait to see how the trading day progressed. At 9:40:42ET I bought 50 VXX @ $31.39 after providing "liquidity". My initial stop was at $31.13, a little below the intraday low. My target was the previous session high of $31.72. This provided a meager reward to risk of 1.26 but with an estimated profit probability of 60% in this particular situation. The wide stop was based on time of day and the fact I was expecting a trading range day. VXX moved very slightly in my favor than sold off hard, but not to my stop before reversing up again. When VXX crossed back through the open, I moved my stop up to $31.29. VXX made a new high on the day and quickly reversed hard. ES seemed to move even quicker and to the upside and is was there I hit the bid at $31.33 to exit my position at 10:00:19, not even waiting for my stop. My fill was $31.3315. VXX went down to $31.13 before finally taking out the previous session's high. VXX corrected, tested the high of the day before ultimately making a new low on the day.

    The basis for this trade is related to a statistical study I did concerning opening thresholds and odds of previous day's high or low being reached. About 70% of the time, the previous day's high or low will be reached on equities. Typically, I am looking to enter within a set range of the open, trade in the direction of the open, use a tightish stop a set amount of the other side of the open, and use the previous day's high or low as an objective. Where the previous day's high or low is near the open, I put more weight on money flow/sentiment indicators and average daily range to estimate a potential high or low on the day.

    So the sun is still up? Good night! Snore!
     
    #17     Jul 23, 2018
  8. destriero

    destriero

    50 shares of VXX? What net liq are we talking about here?
     
    #18     Jul 23, 2018
  9. About $32,950. My risk level ramps up according to trading performance. As mentioned earlier, there is a lot of specific information about my trading plan that I will go over in future posts.

    Logging out. Nite.
     
    #19     Jul 23, 2018
  10. destriero

    destriero

    Ok understood. I'll be curious to hear your rationale of buying the vol ETF before GOOG reported. I suppose the same could be the same for my GOOGL position. GL.
     
    #20     Jul 23, 2018