Price action: The holy grail?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by TTT, Aug 7, 2018.

  1. bone

    bone

    That’s like saying there’s fish in the ocean. Yes, you’re correct. But there’s a hell of a lot more to it than that.
     
    #21     Aug 8, 2018
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  2. padutrader

    padutrader

    do not think anything is the holy grail:use price action alone you will be whipsawed; you have to use a multi dimensional approach; using trend lines or indicators or market structure or all of these and add a good dose of market sense.
     
    #22     Aug 8, 2018
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  3. speedo

    speedo

    :D
     
    #23     Aug 8, 2018
  4. bone

    bone

    Easy to espouse - takes a great deal of talent, acumen, and balls to exploit.

    Again, there’s a helluva lot more to it than that. If you place buy orders around “support” levels and “sell” orders around resistance levels you’ll get your ass run over.

    Weekly and Monthly pivot points and Fibonacci levels (extensions and retracements) have been around for decades and are widely disseminated.

    Nassim Taleb spent some time on the floor of the CBOT. He would marvel at the big swinging dick locals purposely “running stops”. In his book, he called “resistance” levels FREE CALL OPTIONS. Let me tell you why, because I’ve pulled the same stunt as a big prop trader.

    Let’s just say, for example, that for weeks Bloomberg and every trading service newsletter on planet earth was calling 162.20 Resistance in the German Bund. And let’s say the market is currently trading 162.12/13.

    For dickhead asshole whale prop traders like me who were allowed to trade a few thousand this was meat on the table. I would place resting sell orders at 162.30, 35, and 40. And then I’d wait and watch - like a Nile Crocodile on the banks of the Congo River.

    Invariably, the market is going to grind higher, because that’s what markets do... they squeeze people and fold weak hands. And invariably there’s a big offer parked at 162.20. I would lay odds that it’s a composite order of many smaller spec retail orders. Not all but most of it.

    Let’s say that now the market is trading 162.17/18. I would load up a thousand and rest my mouse cursor on the offer at 162.23. And wait.

    I am concentrating on that 162.20 offer. It trades out at all at once, in an instant, in the blink of an eye - there’s a momentary vacuum in the order book. In less than a second I’ve bought what I can up to .23. Big Specs are going to bid the market higher.

    A lot of those newly created shorts at .20 are now .20 bid. Market trades .28. Now they’re upping their bids. And my resting offer at .30 starts to get filled. Half of my .35 offer gets filled, then the bid side of the DOM collapses. The few hundred longs I have left at .22 and .23 I sell into the .20 bid. But I don’t care.

    There is art to Trading. It’s not just a maths exercise. You have to combine both to be an effective TRADER.

    Saying that price action is “the holy grail” is like me saying that “Computer Science” is the future. Doesn’t make me a Silicon Valley Billionaire. Every one of those guys had a very original idea and high functioning cognitive skills.
     
    Last edited: Aug 8, 2018
    #24     Aug 8, 2018
  5. _eug_

    _eug_

    Which poster are you refering to?
     
    #25     Aug 9, 2018
  6. Buy1Sell2

    Buy1Sell2

    Actually there are several
     
    #26     Aug 9, 2018
  7. Buy1Sell2

    Buy1Sell2

  8. TTT

    TTT

    Thank you very much buy1sell2 is very interesting.
     
    #28     Aug 9, 2018
  9. Necor

    Necor

    I am not in favor of tintraday trading or scalping as it increases the uncertainity. You are more dependent on the luck as far as I think in scalping. So, you need to plan for a longterm trading in order to reduce the margin of uncertainity and loss. Stay blessed!
     
    #29     Aug 10, 2018
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