Prediction Based Trading

Discussion in 'Journals' started by stockpredictor, Oct 10, 2020.

  1. Levels are predetermined for years to come, and trades are based on those levels. New levels generated if a market makes new highs. Instead of making new threads for various trades, I will be posting predictions/forecasts, trades, thoughts, etc here as well as on my twtr.

    Next week's intraday trades are, but not limited to, as follows:

    If a day's open on
    BABA is under 297.99, short when hit
    SNAP is over 25.93, long when hit
    SNAP is over 24.86, long when hit
    FB is over 241.27, long when hit
    NVDA is over 537.57, long when hit
    NVDA is over 553.20, long when hit
    BA is over 185.19, long when hit
    UAL is over 40.19, long when hit
    UAL is under 30.72, short when hit
    AAPL is under 124.85, short when hit
    TSLA is over 458.90, long when hit
    AMD is under 73.86, short when hit
    JNJ is over 150.67, long when hit

    What is more important, however, is the bigger picture. Looking at the indices, we have broken through prior resistances on multiple vehicles. What makes this significant is that these were longer term levels derived independently, implying a clear continuation signal. Think of it as the shoreline; the waves are sometimes higher, sometimes lower. Is the tide actually rising? We look from different vantage points, and if they all are rising, then it tells us that yes, it is. Similarly, the indices done so. See images as follows. You can see in my other post that the Dow Jones on 10/6 was a buy signal, but only intraday; it reacted right on the 281.47 level and went as high as the Russell resistance which was when everything all tanked. That's why it only looks like a false breakout on the Daily level but the key is that the longer timeframes must align, which happened on the Russell but not this one, at that time. It works either way, it is just that the larger moves need that confluence while the others are mere reactions. SPY and SPX show similar things.

    However, there is almost always a thesis for the other side. QQQ Daily and Russell Weekly show up as resistance. These are not strong resistances, however. For one, QQQ already tested that point, implying that the more a door is knocked, the greater the likelihood of it opening. In addition, it has a lower winrate in isolation. For the Russell Daily, it has too many levels to use reliably so I won't even be considering it in this range. However, the Weekly appears to have overshot. The reason it is weak is because it generated a reaction on the shorter term Daily level, right on the Trump tweet, which matched the Daily level too. Actually, this is common, expecting a level break- by trading it as a reaction only, it avoids the reversal possibility. Because the market had the chance to generate a continuation down but did not, implies that the market wants to go up. Livermore in the 20s and De la Vega in the 1680s both noted that bull markets shrug off bad news and bear markets shrug off good news. This is an example of that, and is also an example of how one can profit even when wrong.

    So, what to do? Because the levels are similar in distance, I am looking for ideally 2+ hits on support. It could have been bought this week but I wanted a weekly confirmation bar, which required this week to end. That is, I want to buy when price falls into a level while still being in an uptrend. Price may simply run away and I won't get in. However, price typically does get back. Price may also hit one level and then gap under another in a different day. If so, I would like to buy if it hits another lower price, which would appear as even more hits on the Weekly. It all depends. However, the trend up is pretty clear, and there is no indication yet of a correction. We are buy the dip mode.
    Onra, birdman, trader79 and 3 others like this.
  2. Overnight


    Wow. And I seriously mean, wow. Especially the UAL calls.

    Welcome to ET.
    .sigma and stockpredictor like this.
  3. deltaf0rce


    Really? What’s the thesis, stocks break out? Also no mention of profit targets..?
  4. deltaf0rce


    Honestly this is a joke right? These stocks are almost all already over or under those key levels. Some by a wide margin. I must be missing something.
  5. Profit targets depend on if simultaneous hits are elected on indices. That is, another hit implies a larger move. Regardless, it should produce a reactionary movement.

    How far away price is, is not relevant. The markets will react there intraday anyway, even if it hits years later. And before you say its nonsense, I refer you to this thread:

    There is also this:

    edit: I expect the markets to make new ATH within 2 months.
  6. Dazz


    Last edited: Oct 11, 2020
  7. I do have another link of 10 months worth of predictions but the link works sporadically. It is down as of right now.
  8. Dazz


    so no one has as of yet has traded these predictions as a strategy? Seems odd to go through all the effort and then to trade nothing.
  9. I have, and do, each week. I don't know why such an insinuation would be made.
    .sigma likes this.
  10. Dazz


    where is your track record of performance? How can we marvel at predictions & subsequent trades we cannot see and are hidden from us?
    #10     Oct 11, 2020
    MarkBrown and d08 like this.