The funny thing you were posting misinformation about polls just yesterday or the day before... gaslighting those of us over the fact that there a now few republican polls out there which partially balance some of the very skewed pro Democrat polling outfits. The joke is that the media pretends these skewed polls are useful the entire year... when they are not useful until this time of year when they unskew. Every cycle your teams starts with with (some) polls polls being massively skewed to democrats using samples of dem plus 9 to dem plus 14 or worse. (*as I documented in past cycles here on ET). I called the process of truing up as we get closer to the election unskewing. A few cycles later Nate Silver called it herding. My algo was was very accurate... in almost all past election cycles.... Crazy accurate for Trump v Clinton... Not because I am brilliant but because the process is honest. You just use a sample that matches the last election. If your poll does not mirror the last election turnout ... a honest poll would explain why. 2. you don't have chance to get me started on Covid.. .you are the asshole that claimed there was no such thing as natural immunity. You fucking paid lying deadly moron.
Let's outline once again that 538 does not exclude polls that lean Republican. They exclude polls that do not provide information on the methodology which is used -- for example Rasmussen. And tell use again what a Covid Superspreader is? Once again -- it is not a person wandering the neighborhood shedding excess Covid germs -- a Covid Superspreader is an event. Typically a crowded indoor event where Covid was spread widely. Your commentary on both your election algo and Covid are laughable.
you are a paid disinformation poster whose statements have no purposeful relation to the truth. You are the sickest fuck who worked for team that killed people and put many out of work.. Personally, I don't care what you have to say about polls, your response was disjointed and you don't exhibit the I.Q. to even comprehend how polls are created. You just post your talking points... and then lie, lie, lie.
Covid misinformation, which you regularly peddled, led to over 230,000 preventable deaths in the U.S. Basically people who peddle Covid and vaccine misinformation are mass murderers.
This is the problem with paid disinformation morons like you. You think you are making statements which are true... when they are based on bullshit models, with bullshit assumptions... and your so stupid you think you have some sort of proven fact. Fist of all ... the first 14 days after vax were excluded ... that was where a substantial portion of the deaths from vax happened. 2nd... the vax only worked for a few weeks.... so there is no way to pretend the vax protected anyone from anything for more than month or so. And there is no way to design a proper study in which you make assumptions which are contrary to that reality. 3. There are studies which showed that people who received the vax repeatedly were more susceptible to Covid. So there no way you could prove your vax saved any lives... other than to make assumptions which could not be validated. 4. Many of those who died unvaxed were people who were already so unhealthy they were advised not to get the vax. 5. A cursory reading of the studies themselves show how much bullshit was really involved. They counted a a covid death any person who died within 30 days of testing positive. They did not even try to examine the vexing issue of whether a person who died from a car accident with covid should be counted. They just counted every death within 30 days Even a person with your IQ could see that was a crooked model... you moron. -- what a waste of an hour dealing with gaslighting troll like you... ... post what you wish... I am done posting here for a while...
Once again you are shoveling nonsense that has been completely debunked. Here is a thread where you can go educate yourself: https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/fact-checking-covid-denier-nonsense.362220/
Trump at 48.5 is a new high.Trump has gone from -4 to tied in the popular vote polling.That is certainty movement.
The trend of the polls seems to indicate that Trump is more likely to win than Harris. However the odds are about 55% for Trump currently IMO. One interesting point — outlined by the CNN data analyst article — is that there is a 60% chance of one of the candidates getting over 300 EC votes. The battleground states have a significant probability of nearly all of them breaking towards one candidate — either Trump or Harris.