Pekelo Plays the Ponies

Buy1Sell2 · Feb 8, 2018

Pekelo said:
As I get older, I care much less about if I make a fool of myself. So I thought, what is the best way to reach internet fame or making myself look really silly? You guessed it right, starting a prediction journal. That is the best way, calling tops and bottoms, right as they are happening. I also like challenges and the prevailing wisdom about forecasting is that the markets can not be predicted.

Of course they can't all the time and not by just anybody. But occasionally and specially for me, sometimes they are pretty damn predictable. Thus this journal to keep score. Over the years and specially the last few weeks I had plenty of good calls but I spread them out among many threads. This way we can keep it all together and evaluate them as they expire. We can have fun during the process (don't take life too seriously, unless it is a hurricane) and if you trust me, you might even make some money. You don't have to translate Japanese traders' tweets, it is going to be here clear as it can be.

I want to prove 2 things: There can be a high positive expectancy of one's predictions and you can get great value on the internet for free.

The formula is going to look like this: X is going to move Y in Z time. The evaluation of the prediction happens when X either hits Y or the Z time frame passed and we would see how X did. I am expecting a 75% hit rate. Certain predictions will get a partial fulfillment, I will work out a scoring system later on.

I can hear you saying: Oh so if you can predict the market, why aren't you rich? Well, first, you have no idea about my lifestyle, second, the more important thing is, what YOU will do with the predictions. After all, an "I told you so" is nice from me, but you can not buy a yacht with it unless you put some bucks behind the forecast. What is even better I will explain later on why I thought a certain move would happen.

Postings will be infrequent. Sometimes I see things, most of the times my crystal ball is foggy. I predict tradable events, although they might be sport or bitcoin related, thus not as easy to trade them, but possible with a certain set up. Just be patient, sit back, get your popcorn ready and enjoy the show.

Oh, if you ever wondered where the thread title is coming from, wonder no more. It is from the Howard/Fine/Howard 1937 classic, Playing the Ponies. The trio was also known as The Three Stoogies, so this should set the expectations high for this journal.

Another thing, I forgot to mention, but this journal also come with a guarantee of your choice:

1. For every 10K bucks you lost based on my predictions, I will give you a consolation prize of one very tasty lollipop, although only limited colors are available. This one is called the PPP prize for losers.

2. If you would rather have the money, Baron is going to fully reimburse you, no question asked.*

*I was told by the legal department of the website that they only give out Biggest Moron prizes if you ever ask for this.

I think we are all set, let's roll, shall we?
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This appears to be a vanity thread. Interesting though.

Pekelo · Feb 8, 2018

Buy1Sell2 said:
This appears to be a vanity thread. Interesting though.
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"Vanity is the healthiest thing in life." --- Karl Lagerfeld

All I want is to entertain you guys. By the way the last call was, shall we say, incorrect...

Sig · Feb 8, 2018

Pekelo said:
By the way the last call was, shall we say, incorrect...
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And I'd maintain that the ability to readily admit that is the opposite of vanity.

Pekelo · Feb 4, 2020

Alright boys and girls, time to resurrect this "vanity" thread!

About an hour ago I posted In the Tesla option writers thread:

Pekelo said:
The funny part is, had the company been taken private at 420, this rally would have never happened.

Fuck it, I am calling the top here at 946.
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30 minutes later the bottom fell out of Tesla and from 967 ATH it dropped to 860. The next few days will tell if I was right, but for the day, I call it a good call.

If you guys are nice, I will post here other petty damn accurate predictions. For vanity purposes...

For the record, I sold 925/930 vertical March calls earlier.

schizo · Feb 4, 2020

Pekelo said:
#2 Sep 18, 2017

Let's start with a big one, because I don't want your popcorn to get stale:

1. The market is going to top this week, probably on Tu-We. Let's make it numerical:
The SPX is going to drop below 2460 in 2 weeks, (by the 29th's close.) I am expecting way more drop, so I'm playing this fairly safe...

I have multiple explanations for this one but first let's see if I am right or not... Selling vertical calls would be a safe way to play this...
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This was his very first call. As much as I love the man and his calls, I wonder if I should even bother reading any further.

schizo · Feb 4, 2020

Can I just add my own prediction. S&P will reverse and go south at 3330.

Overnight · Feb 4, 2020

schizo said:
Can I just add my own prediction. S&P will reverse and go south at 3330.
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Well, that's not possible, because someone else around here posted that the SP will not reach 3317 again "in our lifetime". lol

schizo · Feb 4, 2020

Overnight said:
Well, that's not possible, because someone else around here posted that the SP will not reach 3317 again "in our lifetime". lol
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Ahem, I think it's about time you check your eyesight. That was 3337, not 3317.

schizo said:
If we have learned anything from the Japanese asset bubble of the early 90s, it's that once the bubble bursts there's no going back. I highly doubt we will ever see S&P revisit 3,337 again in our lifetime.
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Overnight · Feb 4, 2020

schizo said:
Ahem, I think it's about time you check your eyesight. That was 3337, not 3317.
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Not eyesight, just memory issues. And I forgot it was you. I read through so many threads, names get jumbled up. :-( But on that call, I think yer still high as a kite.

No 3337 in "our lifetime". What the hell does that even mean? Who's lifetime?

schizo · Feb 4, 2020

Overnight said:
No 3337 in "our lifetime". What the hell does that even mean? Who's lifetime?
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How about I rephrase that in another way. We will never see the market advance 2,671% (as it did from 2009 to 2020) in our lifetime.