As I get older, I care much less about if I make a fool of myself. So I thought, what is the best way to reach internet fame or making myself look really silly? You guessed it right, starting a prediction journal. That is the best way, calling tops and bottoms, right as they are happening. I also like challenges and the prevailing wisdom about forecasting is that the markets can not be predicted. Of course they can't all the time and not by just anybody. But occasionally and specially for me, sometimes they are pretty damn predictable. Thus this journal to keep score. Over the years and specially the last few weeks I had plenty of good calls but I spread them out among many threads. This way we can keep it all together and evaluate them as they expire. We can have fun during the process (don't take life too seriously, unless it is a hurricane) and if you trust me, you might even make some money. You don't have to translate Japanese traders' tweets, it is going to be here clear as it can be. I want to prove 2 things: There can be a high positive expectancy of one's predictions and you can get great value on the internet for free. The formula is going to look like this: X is going to move Y in Z time. The evaluation of the prediction happens when X either hits Y or the Z time frame passed and we would see how X did. I am expecting a 75% hit rate. Certain predictions will get a partial fulfillment, I will work out a scoring system later on. I can hear you saying: Oh so if you can predict the market, why aren't you rich? Well, first, you have no idea about my lifestyle, second, the more important thing is, what YOU will do with the predictions. After all, an "I told you so" is nice from me, but you can not buy a yacht with it unless you put some bucks behind the forecast. What is even better I will explain later on why I thought a certain move would happen. Postings will be infrequent. Sometimes I see things, most of the times my crystal ball is foggy. I predict tradable events, although they might be sport or bitcoin related, thus not as easy to trade them, but possible with a certain set up. Just be patient, sit back, get your popcorn ready and enjoy the show. Oh, if you ever wondered where the thread title is coming from, wonder no more. It is from the Howard/Fine/Howard 1937 classic, Playing the Ponies. The trio was also known as The Three Stoogies, so this should set the expectations high for this journal. Another thing, I forgot to mention, but this journal also come with a guarantee of your choice: 1. For every 10K bucks you lost based on my predictions, I will give you a consolation prize of one very tasty lollipop, although only limited colors are available. This one is called the PPP prize for losers. 2. If you would rather have the money, Baron is going to fully reimburse you, no question asked.* *I was told by the legal department of the website that they only give out Biggest Moron prizes if you ever ask for this. I think we are all set, let's roll, shall we?
Let's start with a big one, because I don't want your popcorn to get stale: 1. The market is going to top this week, probably on Tu-We. Let's make it numerical: The SPX is going to drop below 2460 in 2 weeks, (by the 29th's close.) I am expecting way more drop, so I'm playing this fairly safe... I have multiple explanations for this one but first let's see if I am right or not... Selling vertical calls would be a safe way to play this...
you need to include SL otherwise no sense as it can be huge drawdown before hitting target ...practically not possible
No, YOU need to include a SL... This is a prediction journal, not a trading one... What you do with the information is up to you. If I wanted to post trades, I would open a C2 vendor account... I am a better predictor than trader. Edit: By the way a prediction only tells you where we go, but it doesn't tell you HOW we get there. So if SPX goes up to 2600 but by the end of the time frame hits my target, that is still a good prediction. So the SL is yours, the fame is mine!
This is true. My dad made hundreds of thousands of pounds trading with a UK spreadbetting firm about a decade or so ago, all made from following the free calls of some random poster called Sarah in MSN chat! (he realised she was exceptionally good after watching her call trdes for a few months and then decided to risk his money on her calls)
Love the not taking yourself too seriously part. This is probably the only thread of this type I'll ever follow, sounds like it will be entertaining no matter how it pans out.
That is right. I do it for the karma and fame, not for the money... I should have started with Bitcoin predictions last week, I nailed the top and the sell off bottom too, but I didn't post it, so it doesn't count. And some of you have obviously bigger balls than I do, so at least somebody should make good money of my talent...
You can't be one without the other...just excelling weirdly in one disrupts the whole harmony; Predicting IS trading, and Trading IS predicting, No offense, but this journal sounds useless...it may be fun for theoretical value, but a waste of time for the real world, You can't dance alone, You need Two, or pairs...to sync ...and revolve and evolve -- likewise, with flirting, and alot of other things in life, Back to my harmony example, or point, Trading is like watching a movie, (I just watched The Fugitive 1993 yesterday)...it has a so-called bad guy, and a supposedly good guy...to understand, and contradict and study and analyze each other's moves, Predicting, generally and loosely, in trading...like what you're doing...is like saying the Good Guy in movies will always win. That is not really beneficial. This is like the third time you mentioned "lollipop" in your post history...are you Kojak or something, or someone who likes to snack on lollipops, Good trading, Ukulele