Was Roe repealed then? And could you make some effort? This is a respectable official thread, not one of your all caps outbursts.
Roe Wade was very restrictive, very few 2nd and 3rd trimester abortions, that option is now available in many places Now Harris wants to go back to Roe Wade, at this point that would be restricting abortion access US abortions reached record high in 2023 There were more than a million abortions in 2023 in the formal US healthcare system, of which 63% were medication abortions both record highs.
are you saying republicans are so dumb they are going to lose this election over a policy that had the opposite effect of what it intended?
I am probably one of the few people who split my vote on the two election threads -- there are probably a couple of others. I want Kamala Harris to win (Election Poll #1) but I am predicting Trump will win (Election poll #2) The reasons for wanting Kamala Harris to win to avoid fascism and another inept Trump administration are well documented in other threads. I won't get into it here. The reality currently is that Trump has approximately a 55% chance of winning the EC vote based on aggregate polling and bets placed in markets. Hence the way to predict the results is that Trump will win the election (with narrow probability) over Kamala in the EC voting. Noting that 55% to 45% is not in any way considered an overwhelming probability. One other note of interest as outlined by CNN data analysts and others is that there is a 60% probability that one candidate will get more than 300 EC votes -- which is considered to be a "landslide" in the modern presidential election landscape. Interesting to note that the ET presidential vote prediction poll (#2) is close to a 55%/45% split -- mirroring the polling and betting markets.
I am watching a small number to tradable listed stocks to see where the investment community puts their money. I'm watching DJT which trades more like a MEME stock and shares of FMCC and their preferred shares. It seems clear to me that if Trump were to win, his social media would get more eyes. Trump has also said that if he won, he would bring Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac out of conservatorship which would likely help those shares. These are 30 day charts with a 60 Day and 200 Day SMA.
That's an interesting take coming from you @vanzandt given your previous postings about the market being up indicates Harris would win and the market would be down if Trump were going to win. I was back home this weekend, which for me is Lancaster county PA. I went to the Trump rally at the airport yesterday. From what I saw and heard this weekend in my home county which is the 4th reddest county in PA I feel Trump is going to lose PA. He's lost a lot of support from friends and family of mine who had been strong Trump backers in the last two elections. And at the rally yesterday I'll say I've seen bigger crowds at the Green Dragon farmer's market in Ephrata. I also spent time with family and friends in the Bally and Barto area of Berks county another red area. I have no doubt Trump will still win those areas, but if he's lost as much support across the country as he has in that area then the polls showing the race tied are wrong. Trump would need the country to move about 1.5% in his favor over 2020 to win. Judging from what I saw in PA I'm guessing the country has moved at least 2% away from where he was in 2020 at a minimum. In 2016 Trump signs were everywhere and you couldn't find a Hilary sign there. In 2020 I feel Biden signs were just as scarce. This time the Trump sign count is way down from where it was and there were a surprising number of Harris signs. I'll surprised out of my shoes if Trump wins PA. My understanding of the race is that whoever wins PA has like a 95% odds of winning the white house. I don't see a red wave coming @vanzandt. If anything, I'm feeling this might be a very bad election for team red. I don't much care one way or the other. I have just about zero interest in politics and living in NYC I won't be voting as my vote really wouldn't matter. My last vote for president was Romney 12 years ago. But I am interested in people, especially my people. The change in sentiment I observed on Friday driving the route 222 corridor from Allentown, through Reading, and into Lancaster from 2016/2020 to now based just on signage alone was enough to get me paying attention.