Polling 2024

Discussion in 'Politics' started by poopy, Jul 28, 2024.

2024 Election Outcome

Poll closed Nov 5, 2024.
  1. Trump Loses

    46.2%
  2. Harris Wins

    69.2%
Multiple votes are allowed.






  1. I don't know how accurate these are but it sure does beat the imaginary crap on the betting markets.
     
    #661     Oct 25, 2024
    exGOPer likes this.



  2. Roevember.
     
    #662     Oct 25, 2024
  3. Businessman

    Businessman

    Kalshi betting odds for Swing states:

    [​IMG]
     
    #663     Oct 25, 2024
  4. exGOPer

    exGOPer

    SWR Data, an adult-sector market research outfit led by industry veterans Mike Stabile and MelRose Michaels, has released polling data on creator preferences for presidential candidates.

    According to SWR Data’s survey of over 200 adult content creators, among those eligible to vote, 74% said they will vote for Harris, while 9% said they will vote for Trump. More than 7% said they will vote for someone other than the two leading candidates and about 9% are undecided.

    “Harris performs strongest amongst strippers (78%) and those working on studio sets (81%), while Trump is strongest amongst webcam models (11%) and phone sex operators (11%),” a rep noted, adding that Trump supporters in the industry are more certain of their vote, and Harris creators are more than three times as likely to speak with their fans about politics.

    “Half of Trump creators say they never discuss politics with their fans,” the rep added. “Just 18% of Harris creators refrain.”

    https://www.xbiz.com/news/284854/swr-data-survey-probes-creators-presidential-picks
     
    #664     Oct 25, 2024
  5. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    #665     Oct 25, 2024
    insider trading likes this.
  6. jem

    jem

    The Wall Street Journal has Trump up by 3 in the recent poll.
    On its surface they used a sample which was made up in the exact manner the "JEM Algo" suggested in the past.

    Biden beat Trump by 4 in 2020 and the WSJ says they used a Biden plus 4 sample.
    (so on its surface its seems to be a great place to start your analysis... so nice poll)

    This is their published weighting - 47 voted for Biden - 43 Voted for Trump - 2 other - 6 did not vote- and 1 refused.

    --

    So when you consider that Gallup now says Rs out number Ds by 3 ...
    That is potential for a 6 point swing... meaning Trump could be up by 9 nationally.

    That is the second poll which provided cross tabs which would allow me to do some analysis.
    Both polls had legit samples and Trump in the lead by 3.


    Now... I am not saying Trump will win by 9.
    But, I am putting this out there for your comment or analysis.
     
    #666     Oct 25, 2024
  7. Have you tweaked your algorithm since The Romney debacle?
     
    #667     Oct 25, 2024
  8. jem

    jem

    You mean the Algo that basically was the only method in America which got the Trump Clinton outcome correct. By the way how was the Algo off? Not my joke about how I was going to celebrate / enjoy the day ... but the algo itself?


     
    #668     Oct 25, 2024
  9. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    Your Algo just like your Covid commentary was completely off.
     
    #669     Oct 25, 2024
  10. I didn’t realize the joy and celebration was a joke. My bad.
     
    #670     Oct 25, 2024