If you bought QQQ on Jan 1st 2005 you would be up 197% until 1 Jan 2017. This is the same timeline as Murray's Nasdaq System backtest. https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds...fic&sym=QQQ&grid=1&height=500&studyheight=100
If someone bought AAPL back when it was $1 per share 30 years ago, they would have no monetary problems today. IF means nothing. "What if" means everything.
The system outperforms the market big time. Our first trade was at 1749.75 , currently we are at 6068. So at 20.00 a big point, we get $86,380. The system made over 150K. So I guess in the world of Fake News $86,380 is about 150K. I am sorry you can't create systems that beat the market, so you think it's impossible. People are trading my systems and making real money!!!.
Ok , let's go fantasy land , let's buy apple in 2001 at 2.20 a share or bit coin on July 2010 at .08, now 4800 so 1000 would buy 12500 full bits currently worth 60 million, My systems are good but they can't beat a time machine
Murray, you posted a system awhile back using an ARIMA/GARCH model. I thought this was interesting and more up my alley. How does this system compare with that one. Also, I've never seen anyone try to use an ARIMA model to forecast index prices since flat price is not stationary. Obviously you converted that to logs but I never thought that data would be very robust for forecasting. Curious if you want to compare the two systems.
I am consistently beating the market, with proof to boot - real time. Yours is hypothetical, (Sim), can you see the difference? https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/themickeys-journal.307864/ https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/themickeys-journal.307864/ https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/self-checking-stock-picking-skills-ii.313799/ The point I wished to make with your post, your system at $499 is untradeable and very poor value for money. Who does one trade a month? Who buys a system and for 12 years sticks by it without tweaking it? As soon as it's tweaked then results change. So you're telling ET, buy this system but dont dare tweak it for 12 years and you too can have a COMPOUNDED profit of 152%. 12 fricken years! An ETF QQQ buy and hold beats your system. There is absolutely nothing amazing about the returns your backtest results offer. Mate, I'm currently on day 3 of a sim posted in Journals and returning 1.22% and you are offering something similar which takes 255 days to achieve something similar. Don't come at me about "I am sorry you can't create systems that beat the market". Your whole initial post has come across to me as opportunistic and amateuristic with no value. And in terms of sim backtest results, anyone with any experience can drum this rubbish up, I've done hundeds of backtests, don't bother now, its the sort of thing you do when still in trading nappies.