If you are going for asymmetric risk-reward, you do not risk everything (all your chips), gambler's ruin, position-sizing, risk-management, et al 88k to 400M to 0 thread is relevant 1000% return on a trade is too high to aim for, but it all comes down to your conviction or belief on the trade It's not so much about the amount at risk, it's really more how much hurt it will cause your portfolio if you are wrong It has to be a meaningful amount as to make a difference if you are correct on your trade thesis, but low enough that you can recover from a complete loss of risk capital on the trade My last 2 completed trades, my target for former was 400% ROI over the course of 2 years, and I hit it but got greedy and had to settle for 225% ROI ($27k risk capital, $35k profits) The latter trade, my target was 2500% ROI over the course of 6 months and I hit it, but again got greedy and had to settle for >1800% ROI ($40k risk capital, >$700k profits) ------------------ I have 2 conviction trades, currently, aiming for 700% ROI over the course of 17 months ($160k risk capital, target of $1M profits by 2nd half of next year) and 800% ROI over the course of 14 months (but still adjustable, my greed and market conditions are part of the dynamics, usdt70k risk capital, aiming for >usdt500k of profits
You wanna reveal with what kind of instruments futures or options (?) You can aim for 2500% ROI on one trade with what kind of strategy please ?
mstr call options https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/crypto-macro-trends-for-2022.363931/page-90#post-5920653 https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/crypto-macro-trends-for-2022.363931/page-92#post-5946808 My currently active trade $160k risk capital is once again on mstr call options [PS: the previous trade I mentioned with the 400% target ROI over the course of 2 years was not surprisingly on mstr call options as well]
I buy lottery tickets (calls or puts). I beg to disagree, anyone buying lottery tickets to get rich needs to bet small and often to maximize the chance of winning and reduce the chance of ruin. Writers of options in general have an edge because they need to get paid for taking on buyers' risks. On the other hand they are playing Russian roulette, like Taleb's turkey, well fed, well taken off for 1,000 days and on Thanksgiving day becomes someone's dinner.
This is also a fallacy in my view - the fact that you have less money at risk should be more reason to take the safer approach and prove you could succeed if you have a larger amount. It leads to lambos or food stamps mindset which is the only real way to 10 Another answer for OP. I have heard (2nd and 3rd hand) from enough sources that the average trader looses so much money. I truly believe if you can trade daily and even hold break even for years you are doing well. To hold even while flipping coins daily means you have a net positive return still, then add commissions, slippage etc. I've heard Tax Trader Status accounting firms suggest about 3 in 1000 traders makes consistent profit. The CBOE says option loose 85% of the time. Most people are gamblers humping the dream. The problem is 'investing' seems like some kind of sophisticated front creates an excuse for more degeneracy. Most people are gambling and living a lie. That's my theory. I've heard of day traders who do the opposite of what you are supposed to do, that are more like glorified gamblers who succeed, but they're few and I don't even know if they can explain how they work.T he behavior needed to not gamble and make consistent money is very different. Most traders I've met or known have specific strategies to exploit the market or make very small but consistent gains. I've seen those traders sometimes get into that 30-60% a year as well. If they're selling risk, it's always going below 60% average. The major of traders seem to have a more traditional risk 1 to gain 2-3, trade swings or price target kind of approach but I dont know too many of them. I'm trying to
A pro? Less than 2 options trade per year on average since 2021 and no options trade for 10 years prior, but I thank you anyway I beg to disagree. Buying calls or puts on a longer time thesis can only realize the profit potential across large number of price distribution If you've read the Market Wizards books and Reminiscences, many of the big profits discussed from Druckenmiller to Soros to other legends were from trade ideas they sat through, "it was always my sitting..." Buying an asymmetric trade such as long calls or puts is not always a lotto play. You only have to be correct on your trade idea and you have to have conviction Before the eoy 2024, I'll post an update that this current mstr trade I have will have a profit of over $500k m2m and I will not sell it until 2nd half of next year 2025