Feeling a Little Down

Discussion in 'Psychology' started by oopsies, Dec 20, 2017.

  1. I have the impression that you did not read up on money management, risk profiling and position sizing. Which is, in my opinion, at least as important as the things that you did read about.
     
    #31     Dec 21, 2017
    comagnum likes this.
  2. Of course. They are so helped by the wizards of ET, that they soon make enough to stop trading and live out their miserable lives drinking Dos Eqqius on the beach
     
    #32     Dec 21, 2017
  3. Xela

    Xela


    To have $15k at risk on a single trade, I'd want an account that's well into 7 figures, myself ... ("just saying") ...

    Something's radically wrong with the position-sizing, when someone trading regularly talks in the same post about making $3,500/$4,000 per month and about having $15k at risk on an individual trade.

    It makes me suspect that Gotcha may be correct, because people who can make $3,500/$4,000 per month for a year have to know better than that. :wtf:
     
    Last edited: Dec 21, 2017
    #33     Dec 21, 2017
  4. Humpy

    Humpy

    Sprouts ( maybe from Brussels ?) made a very valid point that took me a long time to take action on.
    The point is one feels in a desperate hurry as situations come and go.
    1. Curb that feeling and don't rush it.
    2. Importantly never change more than ONE thing at a time and then test it. A lot slower but a lot surer and you know exactly what the change does. Write the result somewhere so it's not forgotten. Use 1M to speed it up real time.
     
    #34     Dec 21, 2017
    oopsies likes this.
  5. qxr1011

    qxr1011

    I see.

    Many years ago I wrote an article called "The power of the dilettante" on some Russian forum (if u know Russian i can give you a link).

    My argument was and still is that some dilettantes have the prolonged beginners luck, but behind this luck is an instinctive (do not confuse it with intuitive) trading.

    Instinctive trader may know nothing of the trading theory, but he has an innate sense of where the market goes, how to run with the crowd, and not against it. This kind of trader can take huge risk (often without realizing it), and stick successfully to the positions which would long before be abandoned by any seasoned trader.

    But here is the problem: the day comes and the accumulated experience and wisdom of the instinctive trader overtake his instincts, fear enters the equation, especially after some big losses. He suddenly realizes that he knows nothing, that he walks on the tightrope, that he needs knowledge, education and experience. He starts reading books, taking courses, attends forums, blogs, etc etc.. and really becomes more knowledgeable than he was before.

    The problem is with the reorientation on knowledge and experience he lost his instincts (that's why you can not remember what and how you did last year)...forever...

    Another problem is that the knowledge he attained is theoretical.

    He never actually had a working method before (even though he thinks he had). Now he has the method, but his method is a hodge-podge of ideas mixed with some feelings. One can not trade ideas and feelings successfully, regardless of how good they are.

    And as the result instead of running with the crowd he now runs against it, while doing almost everything what books and courses dictate.

    Now he faces a monumental task - becoming a truly methodical trader.
     
    Last edited: Dec 21, 2017
    #35     Dec 21, 2017
    sakisf, ironchef and volpri like this.
  6. Overnight

    Overnight

    If it makes you feel any better, I also made a $15K blunder in one day 2 summers ago in a similar fashion. I went long in TF, live, right when China devalued the yuan (on the same bloody day and didn't hear the news yet and didn't know how that might affect the markets), and I averaged down (pyramid down as you say). That averaging technique had been working for me very well in sim for the previous year up until that point, but the ol' black swan bit me with hissy, sharp pointy teeth when I went live. VERY BAD TIMING and VERY DUMB OVERSIZING!!

    I too was numb to the loss, and the next couple of days made about 2 grand back, floating along and trading while shell-shocked. But the next week I took a serious pause and contemplated that bad day, and to deal with it I went back to sim and spent over a year restructuring how I trade, exploring other markets, and finding what fit for me.

    I went live again this year, the progress of which you can see in my journal I have in that section. Rebuilding confidence...slowly building up my tolerance for taking losses...These are the things I needed to work on, and still do, but it is getting easier.

    You're never going to forget the big one. Nobody ever does, and that is a good thing I suppose. It help keep you in check, or should. But If you can build back up your discipline and risk management, you can recover and become better and better at it to the point where your confidence will carry you through bad times. It may not take you over a year of sitting on the sim sidelines like it did me, for some folks bounce back faster. Some slower.

    It is not an easy road, but it can be done. At least take comfort in knowing you are not alone.
     
    #36     Dec 21, 2017
    margtwill, oopsies and SteveM like this.
  7. I'm not sure exactly how you trade but anytime indicators are involved, it's important to realize that indicators need to be interpreted in context. That is why there is no perfect indicator and all these folks will reference studies that show that indicators don't work (see link below). This concept took me a long time to figure out -- context requires fully understanding the market environment, the risks given the environment and viewing the market in multiple time frames.

     
    #37     Dec 21, 2017
    speedo likes this.
  8. JSOP

    JSOP

    If you are using MACD from IB, something you need to know that I discovered about MACD histogram from IB, it repaints. I have checked it again and again and again, its difference between the MACD and the Signal line changes from its initial value the next day.

    Anyway since you stated that you don't use technical analysis that much, looks like what's killing you is just your risk management. You need to implement an effective stop-loss in place to get out of a losing trade and have the discipline to do so when the price is not going your way especially with your breakout strategy. There are a LOT of false breakouts and bull traps so it's important that as soon as you see the breakout is not happening, you need to get out and then get back into the market when you see a good opening.

    With your strategy overall though, you have to be prepared for a LOT of losses even with stop-loss simply because there are more false than true breakouts out there so your chance of being profitable on a breakout is lower.
     
    Last edited: Dec 21, 2017
    #38     Dec 21, 2017
    comagnum likes this.
  9. tomorton

    tomorton


    Hi JSOP - you arte right about indicators re-drawing. e.g. my Sharescope programme prints (EOD, not real-time) forex charts at 1730 UK time (based on 1630, London market close), then 2200 (based on NY close), then appr. 0600/0700 (I assume this is based on midnight price data).

    Obviously charts and indicators will be in one of the three daily editions depending on when you take a view.
     
    #39     Dec 21, 2017
  10. rvince99

    rvince99

    Never, ever, EVER put yourself through the wouldda/shouldda/couldda's in this game. That negative stuff will, at best, just eat you up.

    You really MUST learn from your mistakes and not fall prey to them again. You get up, you get it back on the rails.

    Always remember that your best trades are ahead of you.
     
    #40     Dec 23, 2017