sigh - when are you gonna move some real dough.... $1200... well I don't want to sound disrespectful, anybody has real money on the line deserves some.... but the problem with the short term mind set is you will have difficulty scaling up.
it's ok.... even though I sounded jokingly-ish in this thread I am actually dead serious on my read.... and I know nobody's gonna mortgage their house.... unlimited virgins are easy to imagine but not easy to actually grab. time will tell.
I'll move the real dough when you mortgage your house and give me the money to trade with. Otherwise, it is steaming hearty cup time.
I do think though that it is not yet time for the rug to be pulled out. Yes, there might be some shock to the system, but at the moment, I do think the FED has lots of time and firepower to fix things. When you're down 10%, that is the time to add. When you're down 20%, I think adding some more is prudent. I'm with dozu in some ways in that I don't think we can be calling for a top just yet. I've listened to quite a few of these podcasts in the past few months and although I agree with all the structural problems, the FED really can paper over all of this. They are still desperate to get inflation, and although consumer price inflation is different than asset price inflation, they area going full steam ahead. I think its only when prices get out of control and they can't stop it that the real trouble begins. But for right now, inflation hasn't kicked in, in the way they would like, and the dollar is still far too strong. The dollar literally has to first get weak, and then accelerate to the point of them not being able to stop the devaluation. So before we roll over, I think we have to go higher. Yes, there will be pullbacks, but like I say, it will be a reason to buy, not to sell. This does of course mean you have to limit how much leverage you're willing to take on, and how much margin you have since you have to be able to hold through a 10 or 20% drawdown and add on. Consider the CME margin for mNQ is $750. Now consider that a 1000 point drop will be a loss of $2,000. So you need roughly $3,000 to last through this, and then I say you need to be able to add another contract at this point. So then you need another 3k, for this contract to drop a bit more, plus some more for the first contract to of course drop. So perhaps 10k to play the mNQ seems about right. If you lose it, hey, its only 10k, but the chances of it recovering and you making thousands on any extra contracts you buy lower is very high. I'm not saying I have the math figured out, but what I am saying is that the FED has every incentive to keep it going, and has all the tools at their disposal. If the US dollar loses reserve currency, fine, we have a problem. If they all of a sudden need to spike interest rates 2 or 3% in just a month of two, then yes, we have a problem. But we literally need a huge shift like this to the parameters of the game in order to consider that the market will be allowed to drop. The fact I think is that right now, the market cannot handle a 50% drop like in 2007, so it won't happen. I mean just reading that article today about how the FED is thinking of giving hedge funds money directly so they don't have to get it in the repo market shows that they are willing to do anything necessary.
almost without exception, doom vids get 100:1 this rally is as hated as can be.... so the only direction it can go is higher.
False premise. I saw what a drawdown can do when you lose a shit-ton of money only halfway through the drop (Oct -Nov 2018). And that was not even with averaging into a loser, which is what you are suggesting! Remember two things here... A.) A drawdown can last through your roll period, so when that money is gone from the roll, it is gone. You may no longer have the money to take on another long-term trade due to said margin on the new position to try to make it back on a perceived rebound. B.) A drawdown of 20% now as compared to 15 months ago will be a bit more expensive.
The question is WHY are you so serious? I mean, who really cares whether you're correct or not? Even if you were correct in everything you said, they won't remember. So have fun with life. And go easy on yourself for crying out loud. At the end of the day, the real question is did you make money, not whether your prediction was correct. That's all that it matters, period. Some people are so screwed up in their head that they become completely consumed by their market calls. To them I say, "Who the fuck cares?"
The roll is kind of easy. You just sell one contract, buy the next, pay $1 in commissions, and you're set. For the drawdown, its only a problem if you aren't ready for it. If you're prepared to take heat of 1000 points and add, then when it happens, its almost a buying opportunity! Seriously, the FED is not ready to throw the towel in just yet. Imagine if during the 20% drop of 2018 you were prepared to add? At the time, it wasn't so clear that the FED had your back, but honestly, this time around, I think its more clear that they are here to save the day.