I will question it once again.... Why aren't the thousands of other listed publicly traded stocks doing the same exact thing and buying bitcoin like MSTR is doing to "poof" away their debt?? Seems way to good to be true.... Look at last quarters earnings on MSTR, stock is worth no more than 10 maybe 15 bucks a share
How many companies can issue convertible debt at 0.625% interest rate and have it oversubscribed? In the MSTR earnings report after 12/15/2024 when FASB rule change takes effect to realize the billions of $ in profits on their bitcoin holdings, the earnings per share will be over $30 at current btc price lowering the P/E to less than 6 at current MSTR share price forward-looking estimates... price of bitcoin and mstr share price will affect the EPS and PE at the time of the MSTR earnings report after 12/15/2024
Did you know much about options prior to putting on the MSTR call? That one trade most likely put you in the top 1% here at ET, it's epic. Saylor is getting better and better at framing the BTC value proposition.
Thank you very much! Much too generous, not deserved, as difficult as it may be to admit but I do know I got lucky As another poster friend on ET has mentioned, I'm not really a trader, I do not even know how to read a chart... what I have is a good imagination and can visualize a vast possibilities of prices and then I pick a target that if true is worth betting on an asymmetric risk-reward play I have played options many times in the early 2000's and more actively in the 2008 crisis, had some good wins, had a lot of losses, "i think" net net I was ahead before I stopped My nick is a variation on riskarb as I am a big fan, used to read many of the options discussions, atticus (same same), Maverick74, neke But I do not have the math background, failed finance calculus in college, but I did get an A in statistics 101, somewhat related to that price distribution and outliers mentioned above [wish I did not mention AMD call options, so we'll just scratch that, it was a winner] I've only posted 3 completed options trades on ET, all on MSTR The 1st was a loss, expired worthless, $50k down the drain https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/bitcoin-and-mstr-price-correlation.362726/page-6#post-5525146 The 2nd one was a winner, $27k investment, $35k profit https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/crypto-macro-trends-for-2022.363931/page-29#post-5613148 https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/crypto-macro-trends-for-2022.363931/page-89#post-5910696 The 3rd one was the big winner, $40k investment, $700k+ profit https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/crypto-macro-trends-for-2022.363931/page-92#post-5946808 The 2nd one was not the most profitable but it was actually the most difficult and imho I was a better trader. It was a much longer trade time-wise over 18 months and spent most of that time under water, courtesy of the crypto winter aka bear market When the position was down over 90%, logically I should have closed it out, but I held on because the reason I picked the expiration of Jan/2024 was it would coincide with the end of the bear market and start of the bull market. Blackrock and spot etf's notwithstanding (since I had no knowledge of it in mid-2022 when I initiated the position) The 3rd one was an easy trade, spent most of the time in profits with the exception of the first few weeks, and I fucked it up, only profiting $700k+ when many days the position was over $800k in profits and even hitting $1M in profits (should have sold all calls, not only 3, trying to be cute and juice more profits) ------------- I have a 4th mstr options position that is still active, which I think will be a big win, my imagination says it will make over $1M in profits when I sell 2nd half of 2025 FASB rule change 12/15/2024 will incorporate the profits at the very latest Q1/2025 MSTR earnings report which if bitcoin is $100k will be over $100/share or over $20B as part of earnings FASB rule change can be adopted early so it could be on the next MSTR earnings report, but not likely as Saylor seems to be taking calculated steps Q2/2025 earnings if we get a mania like in 2021 and money printing in full swing with the new US President, who knows how high bitcoin will be and MSTR earnings could be upwards of $10B additional from their bitcoin holdings profits the per share earnings may go down as convertible notes hit some of the price points and cause dilution of shares, some others have done the math on Twitter, makes my head hurts with all the line items on a spreadsheet so I don't delve into it, just glance at highlights here and there I haven't watched a full Saylor video for a long time, only snippets/highlights. Listening to him makes me too bullish The dude has gone bitcoin crazy, now planning to leave all his wealth, his stocks to a bitcoin charity to further bitcoin adoption and I saw a video where he mentioned his private keys will die with him as a contribution of lost coins, making bitcoin more scarce like what Satoshi did Michael needs to have some kids and leave a legacy. I love bitcoin but I love my kids infinitely more
If you're down 90% it's the worst time to close it! I was down like 80-90% on Bito calls, and I actually averaged down because I knew it was going to move and I ended up getting out with a profit... Not what I wanted and I should have held longer, but after being down 20k you are kind of just happy to get out.
*** NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, for entertainment purposes only **** My trade on mstr is still a parlay bet mstr call options --> mstr shares Make over $1M in profits by 2nd half of next year 2025 on the options position Sell the options and buy 1000 shares of mstr and hodl until the mstr holdings is worth $10M in valuation within 5 years (before end of the decade 1000 shares instead of 100 shares because of the 10 to 1 split recently
Hey friend, time for you to add to your short and synthetic short via puts on inverse mstr I hope you know what you're doing, friend