Bitcoin has topped.

Discussion in 'Crypto Assets' started by Master Pu, May 12, 2021.

Do you think bull(crap) trend is over in Bitcoin?

Poll closed Jun 11, 2021.
  1. Yes

    18 vote(s)
    60.0%
  2. No

    4 vote(s)
    13.3%
  3. Don't know

    8 vote(s)
    26.7%
  1. No change of opinion so far. I'm with Gates & Buffett on this one, it's a mania, there are no fundamentals behind crypto, just momentum based on crowd sentiment which can change like the wind. Chart says it's a sell.
     
    Last edited: May 15, 2021
    #101     May 15, 2021
    DiceAreCast likes this.
  2. Sorry, still don't get it, maybe I'm being dumb, how's what he is doing any different from what many other people do on social media? He can't be charged with anything criminal just because he expresses his point view or having a laugh and happens to have millions of followers. Maybe he can get banned from Twitter, but not much else IMHO. How can this be even remotely compared to what Hunt brothers did with silver as an example?
     
    #102     May 15, 2021
  3. He does commit insider trading if he puts on positions before tweeting his views on cryptos that he knows full well have a material impact on certain asset prices. Trading on any non public, material, information is considered insider trading, in fact its the very definition of it. Obviously there is some room for interpretation else he would already be charged, but it looks pretty darn obvious to me that what he is doing is exactly what the Wallstreet bets guys were doing. Some of them are being charged as we speak.

     
    #103     May 15, 2021
  4. virtusa

    virtusa

    A lot of people are overpaid and a lot of people are underpaid. No matter what job they have.
    And on all jobs and levels there are crooks and people who have no empathy for anybody.

    Without the vision that Bezos, Gates, Jobs, Dell, Musk, Zuckerberg...had, millions would maybe not have a job. A job that they have now because the mentioned people "just had a vision". Having a vision is essential in business.
    Without a vision, "The real magic was done by the unknown engineers and programmers" will never happen. "The real magic" is a result of the collaboration of a lot of people.

    Gates became rich with his operating system because IBM was not interested in these operating systems. How many engineers and programmer were working at IBM at that time? Probably thousands, not a single one could "make the magic happen". Not a single engineer or programmer saw what Gates (and Allen) saw.

    https://www.ozy.com/true-and-stories/the-agreement-that-catapulted-microsoft-over-ibm/94437/
     
    Last edited: May 15, 2021
    #104     May 15, 2021
    Sprout and Master Pu like this.
  5. virtusa

    virtusa

    That's why I used behavioral finance as the basis where I build my trading system on.
     
    #105     May 15, 2021
    Sprout and Master Pu like this.
  6. Sprout

    Sprout

    What elements of BF?
     
    #106     May 15, 2021
  7. ph1l

    ph1l

    It may look like a polynomial fit, but the functions for each model have a combination of a parabola plus three cosine waves. It's easy to see that from the (somewhat) readable code.
    Code:
    y = ((((25869.4 + (768.416 * x)) +
        (-4.60808 * (x * x))) +
        (4610.53 * cos ((0.216499 * x) + 5.74516))) +
        (1754.01 * cos ((0.342944 * x) + 5.3832))) +
        (2676.64 * cos ((0.185219 * x) + 5.10898))
    
    The fit attempts to find a curve whose points minimize the squared distance to the actual points. Because this model is the sum of only a few components, it is unlikely to overfit.

    For the above code (the previous graph has 10 model curves overlaid), the actual data, fitted curve, and the parabola are:
    upload_2021-5-15_9-52-28.png

    The cosines alone:
    upload_2021-5-15_9-53-9.png

    Some related posts:
    https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...dict-market-moves.357176/page-36#post-5358066
    https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...-price-prediction-models.357511/#post-5359400
    https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...ession-model-experiments.357998/#post-5373435
     
    #107     May 15, 2021
    Sprout likes this.
  8. Snarkhund

    Snarkhund

    Extrapolation from polynomial fit curves, particularly high order fits, are not predictive and I'm surprised that anyone thinks they are.
     
    #108     May 15, 2021
    DiceAreCast likes this.
  9. ph1l

    ph1l

    It's not a polynomial fit (see post immediately above yours). And the curve would need to be refitted often to make it useful for trading (e.g., every bar).

    Here is a polynomial, least squares fit on the same data.
    upload_2021-5-15_11-9-54.png

    And here is the same polynomial fit extrapolated 21 days.
    upload_2021-5-15_11-10-5.png

    Maybe that will happen after Bitcoin is hacked.:)
     
    #109     May 15, 2021
  10. Overnight

    Overnight

    Typical stalking troll post above ^

    If the power goes out, I'll still be able to use cash to buy things.
     
    #110     May 15, 2021