Today: 08/27/13: +$2,137 [+3.29%] vs. SPX -1.59% Currently flat, sold all SPXU. I'm seeing conflicting signals from indicators and we are at risk of a quick bounce. If we are to bounce, I may be inclined to re-short. Based on what I saw, I decided it was safer to be in neutral for tomorrow. Timing window is tomorrow at the open. I try to have at least +1 or -1 beta to SPX but really really inclined to be neutral going into the open. Better safe than sorry.
ITD Performance: FLAT 0.00% The first month and half performance has been poor. While I am not a day trader, my daily hit rate is sub 50% (41%). W/L ratio is 1.08 but really driven by these outlier performance days. There are not enough observations to make the performance statistically significant. Moving forward, I am hopeful the system will perform on a consistent basis and hit its marks and put points on the board. It hit some bumps earlier this month (four consecutive buy signals only to get hit hard on the first big gap down around 8/16). I am still ascertaining what happened (4 consecutive buys were rare). Anyway, much much more improvement needed.
It takes many months & hundreds of trades to get some level of statistical significance ... this is why usually trading strategies are backtested on a period long enough to provide the desired level of statistical significance, from there you can use MonteCarlo simulations to define an envelope for your live trading results. You can have no edge & be lucky to be on a long winning streak, or have an edge and simply go through a "normal" but long drawdown - 2 opposites situations, but impossible to decipher using only your live trading results.
08/28/2013: no trades today. Today, I thought about buying the open but decided against it. Downside trend strength has been strong so didn't want to risk it. In hindsight would have been nice. Looking for a better entry to go long.
08/29/2013: -$320 [-0.48%] vs. SPX +0.20% Bad trading entry. Chased the move. Thought SPX was moving in a wave 3 of some kind after moving above EMA 20 hourly so bought 1 lot UPRO at ~67.64 10:45am EST. Afterwards, SPX kept correcting.
08/30/2013: ($585) [-0.88%] vs. SPX [-0.32%] Bad way to finish off the last two trading days of August. Was caught chasing yesterday and then today bought around where my system would indicate to buy at timing window (1633). Got caught in the downdraft, stop triggered, and now back to flat. Hence the loss of $585 (this plus yesterday is slightly under 1.5% loss on capital). Otherwise would still be in the position if I hadn't chased yesterday. Live and learn and hope not to repeat next time. Will strive to never chase again. August results below with inception to date (since 07/12/13).
09/03/13: +12 [+0.03%] vs. SPX +0.42% Currently flat on SPX. No SPX trades. Starting to small trade silver via ZSL and AGQ and test silver system hence the small P&L today. These are small positions that do not exceed 10% of capital and will generally trade around 5% of capital. Currently short silver via ZSL. I am waiting for 9/4 afternoon to take a trade in SPX. I think we are heading south of where we are now but not sure where that will be (1620-1630 tomorrow)?
09/04/13: +172 [+0.26%] vs. SPX [+0.81%] Short silver worked out well today. Opened up a short 1.5 lot SPX via SPXU @ ~$22. Rationale was upper resistance, bearish div on CCI, and hit timing window. As usual, the stop is ~3.5% below price (risking 1.5% capital on SPX trade). I'm not concerned about target. Just trying to get the direction and change in trend 95% correct. I've seen this three push up scenario many times before, and market has generally suffered but let's see this time. Holding 1 lot ZSL tomorrow Holding 1.5 lot SPXU tomorrow
09/05/13: ($122) [-0.18%] vs. SPX +0.12% Added to existing SPXU position. Now 2 lots. Holding into tomorrow. I sense weakness but we'll see how Friday plays out. Closed ZSL position for gain, long silver via AGQ (small position, 5% of capital). This is part of testing the silver system.
09/06/13: +$127 [0.19%] vs. SPX +0.01% Closed AGQ (silver long) for gain (details provided later). Waiting for Monday CIT window. Possible double (triple?) top on 9/9. Added to SPX short. Now 2.5x short and really pushing the rules of my trading. Currently averaging $21.96 (px currently at 21.89) so loss is minimal. CIT was possibly late afternoon. Overall, happy to finish in the black this week however would have been better if I had not chased the SPX long last week (subsequently stopped out) otherwise should have closed SPX long for gain this week.