I won't call a market bottom - I have been looking for a market bottom for the past 2 weeks! That view has been painfully wrong. Funny you mention capitulation, because the big downmove last night apparently was triggered by news that Bill Gross had thrown in the towel and declared a bear market in bonds.
Market is forming a nice consolidation channel. Now according to some of the books I've studied, this is where the longer term players are looking to establish positions in preparation for the next upmove. Are they or aren't they? - if the bottom holds, we'll know. JJ
The monthly chart has resumed it's bearish tone. --duh--. Fortunately for me, I cut my losses short on that long position . Unfortunately, I didn't also short at the same moment. --Happens sometimes--- In any event, the daily is too oversold to sell right now. I will look for a short on a rally. --That will most likely be an intraday entry. I'll keep you posted.
Very simple end of day trend following system which signaled short on May 11 finally turned positive today.
I don't really consider it a good call to come in and post on June 15 that I got a "sell" on May 11. It is a very simple and crude trend following system. The problem with systems like this is they are subject to being whipsawed. In fact it was remarkable that this system gave a sell on May 11 with no intervening buy until June 15. The system gave a sell yesterday with the close below 104-25. Interesting to me that heavy selling came in after the 3pm close. Must have been "trend followers" A close today above 104-28+ signals a buy again, so it gets whippy, and less useful, especially if the market is consolidating and not actually trending.