Zillow - Real Estate Market

Discussion in 'Economics' started by The Kin, Jun 8, 2008.

  1. I'm in complete shock. My home was worth 260k back in March using Zillow. According to Zillow, It had been rising slowly and plateaued. Based on my own real estate knowledge I felt that was fairly accurate. I have not been paying attention to the real estate market in awhile as I've been pre-occupied chasing pussy. However I was free tonight, and randomly decided to look up my home value. Whoa!

    Zillow now says it's 205k. I was in disbelief, so I quickly pulled up land sales for my neighborhood and now that Zillow's number is in the ballpark. I still feel the number is 10 to 15k too low, but I know deep down it would be very hard to sell due to the sheer number of for sales already on the street for over a year. There is just too much supply on the market in my area.

    I'm in shock that the value of my house has fallen ~50-55k in just 3 months. Zillow's chart of my house, zip, state did look similar, dangerous too. Another 50k drop and I'll owe more than it's worth! I thought it was bargain and a good investment at the time of purchase. I'm just in total awe at the chart. Value is falling very quick. I knew value was decreasing, but did not expect it at this rate for my own house. I also thought the decrease would have stopped a month ago when in fact Zillow showed last month as the biggest decline.

    On another note, I immediately turned to San Francisco and other California markets I always thought were ridiculously overpriced. Again, I was shocked to see small homes valued between 800k to 1.5 million still holding their value and have yet to see any kind of meaningful declined. I have no local knowledge in California, so I must rely solely on Zillow's information.

    I think Cali has yet to see the bubble collapse, at least not the percentage extent happening in other regions. I was expecting over priced regions to fall first and hardest, but that does not seem to be the case. It looks like they may fall last AND hardest. A scary thought.
  2. 377OHMS


    You can't really look at San Francisco. You have to look elsewhere in California to see the real picture.

    Bakersfield, prices in freefall. San Bernadino, freefall. Riverside, freefall.

    Nobody is losing money along the coast, or on the hilltops.

    My house is designed by a famous architect, sits on a hilltop above the town, mostly glass etc. I recently had a CMA done and the closest comp is 26 miles away. The value has been about flat for 2 years. The surrounding town whose average value is about 10% of my home has been hit hard and is down fully 50% in two years with a few homes abandoned outright.

    California is already in deep deep shit. Probably the worst in the country except for maybe Las Vegas. People are beginning to regard their homes as merely shelter and not an investment. Sad.
  3. California is already in deep deep shit. Probably the worst in the country except for maybe Las Vegas. People are beginning to regard their homes as merely shelter and not an investment. Sad. [/QUOTE]

    Florida is mighty bad too -- It's market was already down because of two unbelievable hurricane years, and THEN the national housing crash hit...
  4. 2ez


    did you try plugging in your address and seeing what Cyberhomes.com shows.

    was the Zillow value the Tax assessed value or Zestimate value ?
  5. drobin


    Listen the best way to get the value of a property two ways:
    1. Realtor comps from MLS.
    2. Certified Bank Appraisal, which is MLS info.

    These so-called secondary ways to get homes values are not worth the paper they are wriiten on. :eek:
  6. I have found Zillow fairly accurate, but have read articles that it lags the market.

    As for SF, prices are not coming off there cause there is a shortage of homes. No more land to build on, and pay is high there. Here in San Diego, most areas are diving fast. The richest beach areas are similar to SF, and prices are flat. There are always a few rich people around waiting to snap up the choicest properties.
  7. I bet the tax assessment/appraisal will stay the same or increase. Think of the revenue loss if that was reduced the same. Add to that , the Friday jobs report showed the biggest loss in years but once again another gain in government jobs.

    I have a few friends that work for the state/local. It's a running joke to see who can do the least amount of work for the most pay. Their pay is guaranteed so they really dont give a crap.

    I think many local govenment bankruptcies will be common in the next few years. The writing is on the wall.
  8. IMHO, Zillow prices seem inflated to the real economy. I see homes dealing at 20-30% below Zillow price in my neck of the woods.
  9. I live in Palm Beach county and I wouldn't have the guts to look at Zillow or any others for that matter.....will just wait for the next tax assessment ...

    Anyway, I'm not going anywhere soon ,so it doesn't really bother me that much.
  10. prc117f


    I think the homes getting hit the worst are the new mcmansion buildouts that were happening during the peak. Those new enclosed communities are the ones that are looking like ghost towns.

    I think the communities that have been established for years and are in good locations that have a large portion of the people living in the homes over 7 years are probably doing okay.

    When I bought my home in the late 90s I got it for 175,000 dollars (9800 SQfeet yard, 2150 sqfeet 3 bedroom ranch house built in 61) with a nice natural lakeview and pool, good location. I will never move out though. my neighborhood only shows 1 home for sale and the majority of homes have occupants who have been there for at least 10-15 years.

    It seems everyone wanted those big mcmansions with no yards in gated communities, the homes all looked the same, to me that sounds like a depressing way to live.
    #10     Jun 8, 2008