Well the numbers were right on ( open, range, etc.)that is to say we did not pass the debt ceiling, open was where I expected and the market went down-- The debt ceiling pass had been factored in was old news and now the economic crappy numbers were now the news. (The market had discounted debt ceiling pass) The uptrend from Friday at 8:45 Chicago time has been broken. Vix has not spiked (yet) it retested Friday's high which means most likely vix spikes higher this week or next and equities go lower this week/month. Also down day August 1 is bearish for the month (If we close lower). This time may be different as big boys step aside and let this turd sink to a better level for the Fall Rally Sure looks like we head toward 1200. Keep your trading shoes on.
what about % weekly move? last week VIX was +30%, only ~2% weeks produce this kind of move. and as I pointed out the absolute value only happened twice in the last year = rare event. in fact today VIX corroborated my claim of excessiveness by plainly refusing to go much higher today, despite huge intraday SPY drop.
I have been watching vix too. But interestingly we don't usually retest without going higher. Vix doesn't trade like indices or equities which seems to indicate we go lower in a day or 3.
Mid-curve futures are >200bps under cash. It would help if you guys knew what a bit about how the stuff trades.
Yeah. Thanks. I am not pedantic. Behave as in Atticus oh behave!!! What I meant to say is that Vix does not appear to have peaked. We spiked lower today with great momentum---volatility yet price was above the previous low. So is that why VIX didn't spike higher? If so then when and if we plunge to fresh intermediate term lows vix may spike higher yet.
OK. So a vix of 25 would mean that 1 standard deviation of price 30 days out is 7% or less, yes? If that is true, then if vix spikes and reverses then that means that daily range is expected to decrease, yes? So If we have been having 25-40 point ranges then we would now expect as vix contracts that ranges decrease? I am still trying to use vix more which is one reason I am watching. Any help is appreciated.
SPY made new low, but this does not mean VIX had to make new high. Last Friday, VIX priced in a decent probability of default but SPY did not reflect it (because the bet was placed via far OTM puts?). Today, the possibility of the default was dismissed so VIX gave away "extra fear" from Friday. Had SPY not crashed, VIX totally would have been killed today.
Thanks. I am trying to learn from VIX and its behavior. Interestingly we were watching the same phenom although you clearly are more savvy with regard to meaning. My take was correct so far and that is PRICE went lower but volatility is contracting. Seems many are thinking about buying soon.