let's say this news is real. so we have the expected positive outcome. is there a rule-of-thumb how high SPY could go based on Friday option prices? 130 Aug 05 straddle was priced 1.88+2.23 = $4.11 Now that there is some certainty of the direction (Up), is it reasonable/likely/highly_likely to expect SPY 134.11 by Friday?
3%+ rally is coming as early as tomorrow night in the futures market, get ready for the market to erase every loss from last week in ONE SINGLE TRADING DAY. As I have said for weeks a deal was going to get done before August 2nd, everyone complaining that it wasnt going to get done is a complete fool, media hyped it just as they do everything else. Now on to your regularly scheduled programming FOOLS!
Shortie even if its not real its going to become real in the next 24 hours, there is no need to even question it, there is no way they are going to let the US go into default. The market will climb on Monday erasing all losses in the worse down week in the markets in over a year!
Saturday, July 30 10:08 PM/ET: Set Your Clocks - 1PM/ET Sunday Let's call it an early night...see you here first thing Sunday morning. Go to sleep, you're not going to miss anything now. Senator Reid just announced that the Senate vote will now take place at 1PM/ET Sunday â NOT at 1 AM/ET. Why â he wants to give more time for budget negotiations adding that many elements need to be "finalized" in any debt agreement. Reid also said compromise negotiations are going on at the White House to avert default. Ok, so here's the deal...I'm going to bed. I'm shattered. These guys are killing me with their roller coaster "negotiations." They're going to get some shuteye and I'm signing off now too. See you first thing in the AM - set the coffee maker - I like mine with milk and 2 sweet 'n lows.
JULY 31, 2011 AT 1PM DEBT CEILING WILL BE RAISED BY $2+ TRILLION DONE DEAL!!!! MARKETS WILL ERASE ALL LOSSES FROM LAST WEEK IN ONE SINGLE DAY DAY! GET READY FOR A 3%+ RALLY!
Right, because GDP didn't happen last week. The debt issue had a huge impact on currencies last Friday, but minimal impact on equities. All it did was inflate implied vola. Assuming the deal gets done, i say ES jumps up 15 pts by the open, but trades flat (and maybe even down) from there... especially as dollar strengthens.
Not sure if you noticed, but the college kids running that site are not trading. They wouldn't last a week trading a real money account before blowing up.
That said, that GDP trails and we already knew 2nd Q was lousy (before the GDP). 3rd and 4Q are what's on the market's mind. Leading indicators > lagging.