Thanks for the kind words. I don't doubt at all but what you guys would have a few things to teach me. There does seem to be a big similarity between trading and high stakes poker. I guess the message of the Zen & Poker book, if there is one, is that it is mainly about YOU. All the rest-- the tricks and techniques and knowledge and research and so on are as a mooncast shadow if the central figure in the drama is in some \ or any way going haywire or "out of harmony" with some aspect of what is going on around him. This then becomes a bigger factor than the other stuff-- hard to overcome, dominating. Other similarities between the two things: there also seems to be a Luck factor, an Instinct factor, a getting-through-the-bad-times-with-some-kind-of-grace factor, a learning-to-manage/control chaos factor, a patience factor, a knowing-when-to push-and- when-to-back-off factor, and a Take-The-Long-View factor. I'm not sure which book it's in, but I have a quote in one of them that also seems to apply: "The fox makes many little mistakes, the hedgehog makes one big one." That kind of thing, too. Poker at its highest levels reaches a kind of rhythm-- a kind of meditation almost. You sometimes see it on TV, though none of the characters is quite what they seem. There are no innocent conversations, as they try to pick up a general feeling coming off a player, a general "comfort level", and tune in to that. Trading probably is the same, when everything is working-- like hitting the sweet spot in time Thanks, Larry W. Phillips
Great summary! Another gem. This internal rhythm concept makes me feel like catching smoke sometimes. For trading, there is definitely a rhythm in the market. Sadly it was explained by a friend that market rhythms are most apparent and reliable when different people got caught "bad". I think he is right. That is the time when emotions take over and the market is no longer random - a natural order emerges. Technical traders exploit this "external" rhythm. But what is this "internal" rhythm? Is it just being in-sync with the externals? Or does it have a life of its own? Is it always there whether winning or losing? Thanks.
I'm not sure what drives the rhythm of what you guys do (by which, the mechanism, the market). To an outsider (me) it appears very random. (I.E. on Tuesday the Big Corp. announces good news and the stock goes down.) You certainly can't get yourself into some kind of "zone" and then attempt to overlap that feeling outward on to a market, any more than a card player can do the same toward external items (cards). At the same time, though, you can make matters worse by not having yourself sharp, "together", and "tuned in", etc. Poker (and maybe trading to) is a whole lot of "incoming info" which (we hope) ends in a balance of probabilities pointing in one direction or another-- often subtle blends of signals, all having to be weighed correctly. Many times the problem is hearing what our "little voice" is saying and acting on it ("I know I'm beat", says the card player, as he continues to throw more and more money into the pot.) About all we can do is get ourselves in a good place, then put ourselves somewhere in the center of what my 4 year old grandson calls a "poopstorm" of information, hopefully reliable, and try to tune in accurately to it. We're GOING to "make a bad read" from time to time; the wheels are going to fall off-- get back on the horse-- it happens, gotta factor it in. Well, gotta run. I'm off to the big game Best, Larry W. Phillips P.S. Any specific poker questions anybody might have I'd be glad to answer them.
Yes, most of the time the market is random (efficient). Many of us are trading the S&P 500 emini futures contract intraday (price of the S&P 500 index) so the instrument is both leveraged and diversified therefore individual stock news has relatively little effect. However when the big institutions come into the market, they create inefficiency in the market because of their size and that is when small players like me trying to take advantage of a "short term" move. It is fast and furious. Being on the other side (running over by the train), I experience how crowd emotions work in creating order out of chaos because people are generally impatient and cannot stand the pain. I am not a poker player but I know there are tons of poker players/traders out there. But last time when a very very famous trader came online (I was going to a vacation), everybody tries to verify his identity and then just go into a big silence... it was very weird. Wish you the best, William
Larry. read your book almost 2 years ago and I credit it, and some things I learnt on ET, with keeping me alive in trading. Trading is considerably more complex - especially from a probabilities point of view- than poker but the basic premise, that the real game is played not against the market/players but ourselves holds for both. Onto poker. How many professionals are now out there making a living off the internet game? I play on Partypoker and Absolutepoker and make a little but I wonder what it takes to get professional?
Hey, Roberk. Hm, how many professionals. Well, as you know, PartyPoker has about 40k-50k players logged on at any given time (not sure if that counts the play money folks). Also depends how you define professional. I think it certainly would be possible to make $100 or $200 a day playing disciplined poker in two or three games at once, and sustain a modest kind of living. Being the sole source of support I guess you could probably define it as being a "professional". Probably a couple thousand at this point (out of maybe 100k playing on all the sites). Those making the big money in real games, I forget the figures, a thousand maybe-- David Sklansky figured this out once but I forget what the result was. 300-400 people making 100k a year (or whatever the figure was, something like this, another 1k making 50k-- that sort of ballpark.) At the very top, of course, are the big money players, I'm guessing 50 or so. High rollers story: The last time I was in Vegas I went out to Sam's Town to see Doyle Brunson, who I know. He was playing 4 handed $10k-$20k hold'em and he was up $2 million in the game. There's a handful of names in this category, but not too many. He was playing with Chip Reese, Bobby Baldwin, President of the Bellagio and former World Series of Poker champion, and Lyle Berman, of Lakes Gaming, who started the World Poker Tour on TV. They were just sitting there banging away at each other, killing an afternoon at a table against a far wall, nobody else in the room. Best, Larry Phillips
Hi Larry, I also like Doyle Brunson's book "Poker Wisdom of a Champion." I like the stories... very easy to read. He gave me an impression of always having a smile on his face (winner smile).
I was saying to the wife just the other day, if I had to name somebody with the best smile I've ever seen, I think it would be Doyle. It lights up the room. Also, he doesn't do it all that often, which kind of underlines it when he does. It actually comes through on TV. Best, Larry Phillips
Yes he was. I recall that I went out there with another young guy, who met me there, who sometimes did errands for him. As we were leaving, Doyle flipped him a $500 poker chip and said, "Thanks for stopping out". He was smiling. Best, Larry Phillips