What did I do today…Whole lot of nothing…I wanted to, but I left my options alone. Looking at cost basis TOST is still in the green, NVDA came back up to around -1.5% and HOOD is down about 3.5% (HOOD is in Robinhood, not pictured) Added a couple trades off the 1min on MACD might add one more off the 5min today, but I don’t want to watch it much more today. Currently sitting on 25 shares at $38.70 1min TPs are at $38.26 the holdovers TP is $40 something (my screen is cutting it off and I don’t remember off the top of my head. I’d really like to get this sideways and worked back out to have as a proof of concept, until then my back of the napkin guesstimates says its going to work. So i’ll just keep plowing ahead, a Titanic looking of icebergs. What I really wanted to talk about today, cause I always need something to talk about, is a conversation on a different post. So let me get out my soapbox, and if your just here for my trades you can skip the rest of this entirely. I’ll be back Friday with more trading. Originally I was going to resize everything and make it look prettier, but…yea, I'm not going to do that. This is a response to this post on a different person's journal. I am moving my response over here out of respect to the OP of that journal. I don’t want to hijack his thread, and this could go around in circles for awhile. Here’s the original post Here’s my initial response: And here’s a picture I borrowed for soapbox rants: That’s a face for radio if I ever saw one, but a beard on him and glasses and he looks just like me. Anyway, the conversation went sideways after that about Blackrock and what constitutes their performance. Then Steven jumped to the performance of Delta One traders at Goldman and Morgan and asserted they make 2 Million/YR starting salary. I can’t find any data supporting that claim, but it's also irrelevant to the argument. What does the salary of derivatives traders at different companies have to do with Blackrock? And it proves nothing. So let's circle back all the way to the beginning and look at the arguments this post was originally presenting. 1. OP has poor RR profile 2. The risk regime is obvious 3. His risk is intraday 4. Institutions are interested in liquidations 5. His strategy is simple AND would reduce OPs downside 6. Institutions use his method 7. His method has much better success rate 8. OPs strategy is a coin toss 9. Large institutions rarely lose money And he added some chart examples, but they weren’t trades of his, they were just examples of what his strategy looks for and they were hourly S&P minis I think. While OP is trading a 52 week low strategy on stocks. I stand by my original post. If you want to compare your strategy to someone else's you should at least make an apples to apples comparison. Otherwise you're just saying “If you would have done something completely different you would have gotten different results” Which is true, but that doesn’t mean anything. Steven replied he wasn’t didn’t want OP or anyone to trade like him, which is weird considering his entire post is about trading like him. I started attacking the assertion that large institutions rarely lose money, and I brought up BlackRock and its performance in 2022. I did this because everything is conjecture without data. And if one claim can be disproven all claims should be set aside as false until there is some kind of data to support them. Backwards looking examples can be set aside for the same reason. I have this strategy I’m working on called the Plutus Strategy. Every full moon I take a Ouija board and channel the Greek god Plutus and he gives me stocks to buy and hold until the winter solstice. I can give you some charts where this strategy did unbelievably well in the past. I don’t have any forward looking data, but just looking backwards this strategy can be phenomenal when applied to the right stocks. Anyway, I don’t want to trade the Plutus Strategy, that's why I told you about it. I did wrongly argue Blackrock was negative in 2022. I pulled up something that said Blackrock funds lost and average of 14% in 2022 but that was just AUM. Steven added this article https://www.thetradenews.com/blackr...-2022-but-still-exceeds-analyst-expectations/ I conceded that I had a poor argument, but my point was the funds themselves. He wasn’t making a case that institutions don’t lose money because they are structured in a way that they make money in all markets through fees. Stevens original assertion is they have strategies much like his and that's why they don’t lose money. So either the argument is they don’t lose money because of business structure, or they don’t lose money because they trade a certain way. Conflating those and saying it proves your point seems like a logical fallacy. I added this: https://www.blackrock.com/ch/profes...asc&dataView=perfCum&style=44341&pageSize=100 It shows from BlackRock's own data they have over 400 actively managed funds that have a negative return since inception. That’s institutions losing money. And I looked at actively managed because someone or something at that institution is directing those trades, it's not a basket that's just following the markets. That’s when Steven switched to derivative traders in different companies. So that’s where it's at. I’m not endorsing a 52 week low strategy, it seems really risky to me and would require fundamental analysis of companies, and I’m not about that. I want to see where he takes it though. I’m not against Steven either, I have no idea how good or bad a VWAP strategy is, I've never even put it on a chart before this week. What I am against is asserting your opinions as fact without any data. You have a better strategy? Cool, show me the results. If you're just “trying to help” start where they are, not where you want them to be. I stated the same thing when the Sultan of Saltiness stated my Buy/Writes were inferior to synthetic straddles. Maybe that's true, but if I can’t trade them in my account that information isn’t valuable to me and I’ll just have to make do with my inferior means. Bottom line, everyone is a Charlatan until there is data. And you shouldn’t listen to anybody who has an aversion to providing data. For funzies I googled " what percentage of stock traders use meth" and I was not disappointed. Vice TV already found a guy. Who knew? I now have more data suggesting meth is the key to institutional trading success than I do Stevens strategy. Maybe not; I just wanted an excuse to share that.
Well, it still works. $23.70 so far this week. That’s only 0.44% now that the account is $5k but that’s one trade away from 0.5% and that’s right around where I would like it to be to hit 20% a year. I remembered one of the reasons I started this was to add a journal somewhere that only had a journal option in their Day Trading section. I don’t remember where I saw it now, so I’ll have to look for it. So far up $77.30 (1.44%) with 26 shares outstanding with an average of $39.72. Robinhood is saying my average is $38.91 but I don’t know what it's factoring in to get that number. YTD profits across all accounts is down to $12997.77 (19.08%) TOST and HOOD options are positive, NVDA is down 2.5% That’s what I’m looking at heading into Friday. HIMS is expiring as well, I haven’t even looked at it.
The SP500 is up more than your target goal of 20%. Why trade other than for this lengthy creative writing self assignment?
I'm just happy you think it's creative. I think its more of a trainwreck, I keep telling myself "the first draft is always sh*t" but now that I know someone likes it I feel way better about it. By the way, I saw you call something "Horse Tonky" and I think about that and laugh throughout my day. And is this one of those entrapment questions? I like them just as much as regular questions I just don't want to be too wordy if your just trying to make a point. The reason I ask is Poopy has already hammered me over this point in post #12 and my reasoning hasn't changed but here's what I came up with this morning: Let me start by asking a different question: Why should I consider the performance of the S&P? Serious question. If you're a professional and you need to beat it as a benchmark for performance reasons it makes sense to worry about the year to year performance of the S&P. Maybe if your strategy is trend following or momentum you would worry about it as well. Other than that I haven’t heard a convincing argument as to why regular people should consider it. A better metric, for me, is the long term performance of the S&P, which is depending on where you look 10% to 12%. Or I can play with the timeframe and get higher or lower like this: In that case 20% is a good place to start. It gives me room to fall short and still be above 12%. Under 12% is where I would say I’m better off in index funds than trading. But even then, I could just move to SPY and sell options off that, I’d just have to adjust to catch gains. As far as I can tell, neither MACD nor selling options needs the underlying to be profitable over time to be profitable. I’ll let TSLA go in Feb. for less than I bought into it and still have a chunk of profit. And really, if I had caught its jump from $200 to $400 and had a sizable profit would the argument be my strategy is great or I got lucky?
I had a thought as I was adding my trades to my spreadsheet. What if the S&P was only up 5% this year, would 6% be a substantial enough return to be considered successful? What if that’s your return every year? If you maintain 6% even when the S&P doesn't, you’ll outperform the S&P sometimes. Is claiming success in those years valid? To be fair I also spent a fair amount of time trying to figure out if I could write off a hot tub as part of a home office. I can calculate its square footage, and laptops are fairly portable devices. So does working from a hot tub make part of a home office? It's not a flat out no, surprisingly, I would just probably have to have some schtick where I made youtube videos trading from a hot tub so I could make a case of it being necessary. Anyway, I sold out of SQ. $1283.18 (16.07%) profit, had it open since 3/15 so 9 months. That’s decent, I’m happy. I rolled HOOD, both calls are now on the $41. I forgot to fill that out so I'm not sure where I’m sitting. Over in Schwab I rolled NVDA and rolled 1 TOST and sold out of the rest of it. I looked at HIMS but I'll be letting it get assigned. I also had a few successful trades in MACD. I forgot I had an appointment today so I’m late so I’ll have to get figures up later this weekend. That’s my bad. I’ll be back sometime to go over the rest of it.
Creative writing = high school writing assignment, not anything real (or worthwhile) If the end results of trading are underperforming a set and forget strategy such as owning the SP500 in some manner, then the pursuit is not worth it in an economic sense. Ones energy would be better spent working for a paycheck, adding to the nest egg, and experiencing the wonders of compound interest. I am never happy underperforming the market
Well, high school is real (and worthwhile) if your a 16 year old. And I literally set out a logical way of comparing my performance to the S&P and by what metrics I would consider just going to index. You just ignored it and said what you wanted to say from the jump. And all of that is just your opinion, while avoid my arguments. So who's being real and who's not? It's dogma, that's all it is. You have one data point, that I've underperformed this year. So? I've already posted my performance chart, I'm 2 and 2. I've outperformed the S&P 2 years and I've under performed 2. The first 2 years were all piss and vinegar so you can't exactly say it's a great achievement if a knuckledragger can do it twice without much of a strategy.
False binary. Trading is not a trade or 401k choice. And now your using my case of looking at the s&p over a longer time span. Over 30 years your probably averaging 10% or 12% so anything better than that would be beneficial. I'm still averaging above 12% so I'm still better off than just sitting in an index for 30 years. And...as I said before...if I can't maintain 12 I can always go index. By the way, trader or w2 is also a false binary. There is no reason you can't mix and match those.
Oops..forgot I had stuff going on Friday and ran out of time altogether. Sold SQ but I didn’t get back around to replace it. I still got $144.94 from rolling HOOD that will give me $502.82 (6.16%) if HOOD moves back up above $41 next week. Maybe I’ll add to it Wednesday, I like that idea better than trying to find something and find time to open a trade on the go Monday. That would fill the slot left by SQ, but maybe something else will pop up. I am looking at the idea of taking half of my positions on Monday and half of Wednesday. This would theoretically reduce my exposure, and if I’m targeting 0.5% a week and continue targeting options trades over 1% I can keep more of my money in cash and still hit my 20% target for the year. That’s at least the idea why I chopped TOST down from 3 contracts to 1. 3 was just too many, it only left $500 in that account so I didn’t have the flexibility to buy back options. Two leaves me a buffer, and I like keeping 10% of each account as a buffer. That’s just a test run though, the Schwab accounts are IRAs so it makes more sense to have the most amount of money possible working in those accounts TOST is currently sitting at +$240.55 in equity, with a potential of +$270.55 if TOST rises above $38.50. My percentages are wonky on this one because I started with 3 positions and now it's one, and I haven’t sat down and worked on a fix for that. NVDA I staggered as a way to balance out chasing premiums and maintaining a little more flexibility if price rebounds. Still targeting 0.5% a week and just dividing that between the 2 prices, the average assignment price is now $142. NVDA is currently -$1,176.65 (-4.09%) in equity with a potential +$373.35 (1.30%) if it rises above $142. I haven’t decided if I want to run a large position like NVDA or break that into smaller positions, I do want to try and run 2 contracts on my positions in 2025 and see if that provides more flexibility and help with my biggest shortcoming this year of not catching rising prices in my underlying positions. That and changing how I roll positions, I think, will help me. That’s the reason I wanted to be flat going into 2025 to see how the changes play out over the course of a year. I’ll also be referencing 0.5% a week and 20% a year a lot. Yes, I know 0.5% a week is 26% a year, that is not a poor grasp of math. I am just assuming there will be some slippage (like NVDA currently) and I’m just guessing 0.5% will naturally put me closer to the 20% mark than the full 26%. MACD is still going, its back down to 13 shares outstanding with a TP at $40.56. I jotted down some stats, percentages are less impressive now that it's based on the 5K balance, but still solid. Been running 3.5 weeks. MACD $12.87 on Friday 12/13 $43.07 (0.79%) for week $96.67 (1.79%) since starting And finally YTD performance dipped. Currently sitting at $12,366.52 (18.12%) so the champagne is going to have to wait. We have what, 11 more trading days this year? I’m basically tying a bow on it after markets close on 12/27. I’ll reference those amounts for my 2024 performance and use them to base my percentages of my 2025 performance.
Soapbox time! I love this little guy. Figured I’d just post this to reference back to. This is the second time I’ve fielded a comment about the performance of the S&P this year compared to my performance. I keep saying it's a silly metric, and it comes back anyway. I think it's some sort of Dogma from the professional side where that metric would be more meaningful. If you're just an average joe trading your own money there is no reason to use it if you don’t want to. A better metric, in my opinion, is the long term average of the S&P which is 10% to 12% but really depends on what specific time frame you look at. If you're going to suggest I am doing poorly because I’m not outperforming the S&P in a specific year you need to offer a better metric. Otherwise you're just repeating dogma. Square this circle: I didn’t beat the S&P in 2024 so what should I do? Stop trading and go back to saving in retirement accounts (401ks, HSAs, IRAs, etc.)? Well then, isn’t that just relying on the long time average of the market? Okay, but if that’s the case, then why shouldn’t I just ignore year to year gains in the market now and focus on beating the long term average? That kind of circular logic doesn’t hold water. If that’s the alternative then why should I use a different metric for my performance now? I’m not a rocket surgeon, and even I can look at that and see it's a dumb argument. I can even make a solid case for a different metric: If you are working and decide to trade as a side hustle type of situation it would make sense to look at it as a business. One common line of thinking on new businesses is that it takes 4 years to break even. Another is you’ll probably have to add money to keep the business afloat until it is profitable. So if you make the case that you should give yourself 5 years of actual trading and start averaging from year 5 forward. If your mindset is more in line with Robert Kiyosaki from “Rich Dad, Poor Dad” I can see that making sense. That’s just an example. I'm not totally sure if that’s the mindset taught by him. The point is if you start trading from a different mindset it is completely logical you would judge your performance differently. And another: If you are trading for income and your metric is X dollars/yr. Let’s say $100K just to keep it simple, but X can be whatever you think a sufficient income is. If your goal is $100K for income then it doesn’t matter if that’s a 20% return or a 5% return because that’s determined by the size of your trading account. The bigger you account the smaller return you need. A 500K account needs a 20% return, a $5M account just needs a 2% return. In that case are you going to tell the person trading the $5M account that his metric of 100K is bad because the S&P did better than his 2% return? What if he made one trade that year to get 100K? Does that change the idea that he should quit because he didn’t beat the S&P. In that case he might not even know or care what the S&P does as long as he has his income for the year and his account balance will be the same or better. This is a very stripped down example not factoring in a lot of things but the principal of the argument is someone would care less about percentages if their goal was a specific dollar amount. P.S. Is there a way to make these little notes are the beginning? I call them stickys they may be called something different here. Or do I just have to keep referencing the post number?