I don't think of my picks as long term. I more think of them as prostitutes and I'm their pimp daddy. It seems in this market that it is good to have a stable of both long and shorts. When the buyers get excited I can send one of my ho's to please them. occasionally, I will borrow a ho from another pimp and when he realizes he wants to get rid of her, I will let him, but at a discount. Sorry, I was never any good at analogies. Here is at least my perspective on the market right now as opposed to 99/00. One morning RMBS was getting some action g so I bought at 90 sold at 95 and was pissed that it went to 129 later that day. But now, when I take a long and I hold stuff overnight it is something that if we get anther attack or fraud or whatever else goes wrong is not going to kill me, and I can stomach for a while. When I get a little gain I sell out. Then I have been hedging things with shorts. I was never a very good short seller, I get squeezed like a piggy, but with the hedges it seems to work. Then I tend to marry my gains and losses. So this morning I closed out some shorts and offset some losses on things that were not working. As for the junk bonds, they are like my slum property. Not a huge investment, but I figure when the economy turns people will start paying for risk and the spreads will close. In the meantime most are paying 10% or so in dividends. The other nice thing about bonds is they lead the market a bit. So the selloff in junk gave me a clue to start raising some cash over the past few weeks. Just my thoughts.
OK trdrmac. I get more your idea now. hedging is good. I like it because it makes it possible to accept noise, fakes more easily. Also multiple systems smooth the equity curve and keep customers happy. Also, your point regarding high yield : home run. We actually had the very same experience. It raised cash for us (leaving them.. could have shorted too but the action was too weird.. in hindsight we know now what was happening). We did increase operations on the index trading side (with increased volatility pointing back its head). Also, everyone calling a bottom was just too funny while we shorted in the acceleration. tntneo
I can think of some, but I'm more comfortable suggesting some funds... FMIOX MVALX WMCVX BGNMX SCUIX OAKBX OAKMX
I only have 1. THV. I have 100k+ of them now. I continue to buy a few hundred a week. It's the most undervalued thing I've ever seen. Other picks are NSV/CTE/REFR/OMM/SUPC (if it pulls back)