Predicting the trend Vs predicting the target price. We can predict these things... 1. Bullish trend 2. Bearish trend 3. Bullish reversal 4. Bearish reversal 5. Range bound But predicting a fixed target price and calculating a stoploss based on that without bothering about the hit rate of stoploss is something alarming. 5 times my target will be met. 5 times stoploss will be hit. With a 1:2 RR ratio I endup making money. Looks very simple and straightforward. But 2 or 3 times stoploss may hit before meeting the target. That people don't want to talk about. Price may hang between target and stoploss also. Who cares reality?
My guess is, that as you stand at the pulpit lecturing ET, you are the one who can't trade profitably. I've been around long enough to know, those who wish to portray trading authority know the least. If you don't believe me, an example would be the (ex) resident Price Drivers guru.
The art of making money Here is an analogy... A man asked a sculptor (a professional trader): "How do you make such beautiful idols (good profits) from stone?" He replied: "Idols & images (profits) are already hidden there... I removed unwanted stone (losses) only...!" There are two kinds of skills in trading. 1. Making profit (eg. finding an edge in strategy) 2. Avoiding or reducing loss (eg. having a stoploss) Making profit is simple. Buy low and sell high ! There is really nothing much to learn how to make profit. Its very obvious even to a 10 year old boy ! Then where are we spending much of our time in learning ? Are we spending most of our time to learn how to make more money than previous trades ? No. We are spending more time and effort to avoid or reduce loss that we made the previous trades. We are spending 99% of our time to learn how to avoid or reduce loss. The question is "Are we aware of that?" What we have invented using all our time ? A stoploss ! ! ! We are spending hell a lot of time and effort and the end result is a stupid stoploss theory. The reality is that we are not accepting that all that we are trying to do in trading is simply to avoid or reduce possible losses. Why we are not accepting that reality? Because we think its stupidity to spend huge amounts of time for one simple thing like avoiding or reducing losses in trading. Our ego does not entertain such a simple yet genuine fact. We can not accept that its the only thing in trading we are doing all the time ! ! ! Yet we subconsciously and unknowingly do the same stuff of striving for staying away from losses as much as possible and pretend to do something else. Probably pretending to try to make more profits. This contradiction of doing something and pretending something else has moved traders to nowhere. All that we have in hand is a stupid "stoploss" theory and an unwanted risk management. Investments need risk management. Not trading. All the bloody risk management must be built inside the strategy itself. We are not aware of what we really doing and end up creating inefficient strategies and add an unwanted supplement called stand alone risk management. Pathetic ! I "consciously" spent all my time to avoid or reduce losses. Then I realised that a fixed target and a fixed stoploss are the culprits in trading. And that we can have a open target and avoid loss instead of surrendering to a stupid stoploss. "The art of making money" is all about avoiding or reducing loss. Making profits is the last but not the least thing.
I could understand you have expressed some "feeling" in your post. Can I ask if you can post what you are "thinking", if possible for you ?
Thanks for your feelings. Yes that particular post is nothing more than a joke for whom subconscious mind does not exist ! For at least 90% of the world population subconscious mind does not exist. That is the normal today.
Awareness means awareness of the existence of subconsciousness People are not aware that 99% of human mind is subconscious and that we don't know what we really doing. There are three common ways to become aware of subconsciousness 1. Workshops on the subconscious power 2. Hypno therapy 3. Meditation, yoga, etc.