Your post Fed meeting sentiment tomorrow

That just made my night

 

I haven't been here long but that's one of the best post I've read.

Did I hear someone say orcl's going to 44?

 

One day ... or one year ... you may be right!

 

rumor was floating around today that there might be a cut come June. This is just soo pathetic, I have heard about rate cuts since the last rate rise months and months and months ago. Eventually the fools will get it right after saying it about 59304 times.


Many are now "worried" that bernanke may mention the subprime mortgage problems, he may mention them but it will quick and painless.

If anyone reads ETFdigest David Fry points out some really good things today:

Michael Malone, trading analyst at Cowen & Co. opined today that deal making is returning after a few weeks of absence signifying “a sign that confidence is returning to the marketplace”. Really? I’d say its more like investors took some kind of memory drain medication to make them forget the previous focus on and abhorrence of risk. We’re back to risk-taking as if the previous concerns were just so much hooey. So the previous method of isolating all problems, setting them aside as a nuisance and putting cash to work are quickly [in a New York minute] back in style. Why? Because there’s plenty of cash burning a hole in money managers’ pockets and it’s nearing the end of the quarter when bonuses are paid.

Here’s something of interest regarding the appetite for risk. According to the NYSE margin debt hit a record high in February at $295.87 billion versus January’s record of $285.60 billion. Now we don’t have March’s figures yet, but clearly the appetite for risk was pretty high then and it will be interesting to see how it changed if at all.



Rest of his work is here:

http://www.etfdigest.com/daveDaily.php

 

Thats the problem with these markets is people tend to forget very fast. Just last Tuesday the markets suffered its second biggest lost this year and the following day had another triple point selloff only to run back up above 12,000. With back to back up days worries are fading fast, especially if the markets go 3 for 3 tomorrow with another rally tomorrow after the fed meeting. If people see the rally intact they will now jump on board and hope to ride it this time to a new high at 12787, most will think 13,000. However the next drop in the markets will be very severe in my opinion if the markets do not see a pullback and run straight up from here.

 

Until the FOMC statement strongly implies a rate hike at the next meeting, these meetings will be excuses for rallies.

 

There were like 4 responses to this, but everybody failed to realize that the 2 events are not mutually exclusive...

 

"Suspect Qs will peak near 43.8-44 before trending back down....
Looks like orcl is going to push it to 44 area sooner than i expected, although I still stick to that scenario."

"Oracle to $44, huh?"

"Did I hear someone say orcl's going to 44?"

This reminds me of that game where someone whispers something and then as they pass it around the circle, it gets distorted until it eventually becomes a whole different story by the time it gets delivered. Let me be a little more clear:
oracle news after the bell today will accelerate the push of Qs up to 43.8-44 region tommorrow, before Qs head back down.

 

But we rallied before the news already...

 

Seriously what can Bernanke say? A rate cut = weak dollar and that will put further pressure on the unwinding carry trade, and a rate cut will literally kill the housing market. He is not going to say anything new or imply anything explicitly.