"According to experienced traders approximately 33% of traders are able to profit over a 3-month period whereas the percentage of those market participants who trade consistently, on a yearly basis stands at 7.7%. This suggests that more than 92% of traders cannot achieve this goal." https://forexsuggest.com/consistent-in-forex/ 90% of day traders lose money consistently. Only 1% of day traders are predicted to be profitable after costs. 97% of individual day traders consistently lose money. 40% of day traders quit within a month, and 87% quit within 3 years. Approximately 17% of day traders can manage to earn minimum wage via day trading. Only 3% of day traders make consistent profits. https://blog.gitnux.com/day-trading-statistics/ There are 9.6 million forex traders globally, and the average age of traders is 43.1 years. 99.6% of retail Forex traders cannot achieve more than four back-to-back profitable quarters. 7% of all traders have been trading forex for more than a decade, 39% have been trading for 1-3 years, while 31% of traders have been trading for less than a year. https://analyzingalpha.com/forex-statistics -------------------------------------CONCLUSIONS (with some assumptions as best estimation of the odds)------------------------------------------------ Speaking of the odds of being consistent profitable as experienced trader, where you should have a decade of market experience. 7.7% of all experienced traders can trade consistently. Only 3% of day traders make consistent profits. => So swing traders being consistent profitable is easier. 5% of all Forex traders are consistent profitable (=(100%-99.6%)/7%). => So being consistent profitable as experienced traders on Forex is more difficult than other asset classes. After you traded for one decade daytrading Forex is most difficult, but swing trading non FX products is easiest to get consistent profitable. Your odds to be consistent profitable after that decade of experience are somwhere between 1:33 to 1:13. So the conclusions (with assumptions as best estimation here): FX daytrading most difficult | Your odds are ~ 1:50 (with 10 years trading experience (!)) Non-FX daytrading second rank | Your odds are ~ 1:25 FX swing trading third rank | Your odds are ~ 1:12.5 Non-FX swing trading highest rank or least difficult (to be consistent profitable after 10 years of trading experience) | Your odds are ~ 1:8 If you have only little trading experience your chance of being consistent profitable are somewhere between 1:80 to 1:500 so between 0.2% to 1.25% depending on what asset class (FX or non-FX) and trading style (daytrading or swing trading) you trade. (Of course all estimated odds, presented here, should be understood as average numbers as there can be of course some deviations of it for the individual trader.)
I also would say in addition the statistic facts I got from different websites for being consistent profitable with or without trading experience, it depends on volume and volatility too (more is better). So for daytrading you need low transaction cost to get in and out easily. So heavy volume traded products are better. Then you also need some volatility as you can only profit from movements in one direction. So daytrading EURUSD (for volume focus) or GBPJPY (for volatility focus) is best here in FX (if you want to daytrade FX). Swing Trading should be done preferable on Majors in FX (if you want to swing trade FX). Daytrading non-FX which is easier should be done on SP500 or Nasdaq100 (first or preferable before you consider other products). Also swing trading on those products. If anyone is trading Gold it is hybrid of FX and commodity so should be easier than pure FX trading but more difficult than Indices trading. Again daytrading should be 3 to 4 times more difficult than swing trading (compared on same asset class). -------- Also if you daytrade you are much more sensitive to any relevant news. So you would need a newsfeed with good coverage and fast realtime feed here too. On swing trading those news can be much less important and not so fast reaction is needed. On daytrading you need to check whether to be flat before important news comes out.
The problem with statistical facts is that they are based on past data and hopefully on all data that is available. It doesn't encounter or explain why the data is what it is... Do you think it is a fair assessment if you know that most people only need to have a broker account to trade and no other skill or proof that shows that they know what they are doing? What if we analyze all the knife usage and put them in the light of how many people with a knife save a life? So only doctors with a scalpel will be successful. All the rest of the data will let you see that 99% of the knife usage will not save a life. What is the point of such a statistic? That no one should be a doctor because 99% of the people fail to use their knife as a life-saving tool?
Some stats for the NQ for the month of Oct '23 (in points): 1. Low / High / Avg range for the 1st 5 mins: 28 / 65.25 / 45.50 2. Low / High / Avg range for the 1st 60 mins: 86 / 202.25 / 128.50 3. Low / High / Avg range from open to noon (EST): 94 / 346.75 / 186 4. Low / High / Avg range from open to 16:00 (EST): 134 / 456.25 / 248.50 You can make a very nice, consistent living utilizing these kinds of stats. But you can't say on these forums exactly how. You'll just wind up as a source of derision. As NoDoji has previously shown, there's very little upside to helping the less informed here.
The Forex market is not indicative of the whole spectrum of traders. Trading Forex is probably the most difficult type of trading out there, and if you add day trading to it, well that makes it even harder. But there are many other traders that won't touch Forex in years, so those statistics are simply far away from being a snapshot to be considered.
interesting way to segment the range with time - i use range in trading for compression and expansion purposes. m
FX is the hardest because 1) it has a "volatility problem". Since it moves slow, you are bound to use high leverage (unless your account is like 500k+) 2) Even with overall low volatility, you experience higher spikes, spread widening and slippage compared to say SP500 index. That's probably the biggest cause of retail trader failures in that market: high leverage + spread widenings/spikes out of nowhere. 3) There is no "long only mentality" if i can put it like that. Many index or stock traders are successful simply because the market is bound to rise eventually. So, you just take long only signals from your strategy. You can't do that in FX. 4) There are no fundamentals that has a straightforward reason for a higher or lower currency value. There are more but i'll just stop here
NQ Range in dollars last few days:- Although 1st 5 minutes (RTH) get skewed sometimes with ATR formula affected by gap from previous session
I have a friend who daytrades ES and he used similar stats to decide to trade the hour after the open and the hour before the close. I daytrade metals and energies and have similar stats for the 4 hours that I trade. I track the averages over the 4 hours and for each hour that I trade. It helps me to decide if the risk is low enough to trade during that hour. For example if the average points for this hour is less than my profit target, I review the risk and decide if I should take a trade or not. cheers toucan