Covidiots do not understand Statistics and they do not want to understand the Base Rate Fallacy ‘Only 1% of COVID hospitalizations are vaccinated people’ sounds encouraging, doesn’t it? Likewise, doesn’t ‘50% of COVID hospitalizations were fully vaccinated’ make it sound like the vaccines aren’t working well? In reality, if you’re trying to figure out how effective the COVID vaccines are, these particular statistics are useless. It is impossible to use this statistic alone to figure out how well the vaccines are working. By itself, this number provides incomplete information and is highly misleading. Here’s the Nerdy reason why…. The Base Rate Fallacy This statistic confuses people because it invites them to commit a type of logical fallacy called the “base rate fallacy”. Logical fallacies are errors in reasoning that occur when our brains try to oversimplify things to make them easier to understand, but that oversimplification causes us to ignore key details, which often leads to inaccurate conclusions. The base rate fallacy is a type of logical fallacy that occurs when people try to estimate the chance of something happening based only on specific examples in front of them, ignoring the background levels of those events in the population. ➡️ An example: suppose two COVID patients were admitted to the hospital, one vaccinated and one not. The headline might (accurately) report that ‘50% of hospitalized COVID patients are vaccinated!’ Mathematically, this statement is true. And it sounds high, right? If we only focus on this percentage, we might conclude that vaccination makes no difference in the rate of hospitalization for COVID. But what if I told you this hospital is located in a town of 100 people, where 98 people are vaccinated and only 2 are not. This dramatically changes our interpretation of what’s happening in the hospital — now we know only *1 in 98* vaccinated people are hospitalized for COVID, while *1 in 2* unvaccinated people are hospitalized. Rather than the % of the hospitalized who are vaccinated, we care most about rate of hospitalization in the vaccinated vs. the unvaccinated. Clearly, the risk of hospitalization for vaccinated people is much lower than it is for unvaccinated people. But our headline provided only partial information, so it missed this conclusion entirely. Without the background rates of vaccination, it’s impossible to interpret the statistic provided in the headline. We simply don’t have enough information. If this were a math test and we were asked to figure out how well the vaccines are working, but the only information we were given was ‘50% of hospitalized COVID patients are vaccinated,’ we couldn’t answer the test question. We’d have to walk up to the teacher and tell them that more information is needed. The ‘headline statistic’ (the percent of COVID hospitalizations who were vaccinated) is highly dependent on the vaccination rate in the community. Below is an animated visual that helps make this counterintuitive concept a little clearer. https://thosenerdygirls.org/base-rate-fallacy/ Covidiots do not understand the below Base Rate Fallacy Graph Covidiots do not understand the below Base Rate Fallacy Video This is the main reason why we call them Covidiots...not the sharpest tools in the shed. It's still strange that government mandates in a Pandemic would cause these Covidiots to mentally break...resulting in them falling down a rabbit hole of strange/cult-like beliefs about vaccines while there are no longer vaccine mandates and enough people are now vaccinated so that the Covidiots in their community are more safer being not vaccinated. That's the purpose of vaccines...to minimize the risk of a severe disease that could result in hospitalization and to protect the community...including protecting those that choose to be not vaccinated because there's less spread of the disease (fewer people having a severe Covid infection) within the community. It is what it is. wrbtrader
Seeing that SIDS occurs with infants under 3 — and seeing that the mRNA Covid vaccine for children under 5 was only first available in June of 2022 in the U.S. and Canada — then the unit was quite correct in ruling out Covid vaccines as the cause of SIDS in 2021. It amazing the stupid shiat anti-vaxxers post online.
Hmm, Pfizer can't get it's study on myo and pericarditis done. 14 months overdue. It was a condition of approval to have this done by July 2022. FDA? Wake up! Enforce something ffs.
Progress is being made on a Universal Coronavirus vaccine which would protect against SARS, MERS, and SARS-CoV-2 (Covid) for longer periods of time. Combo COVID vaccine works in mice; human tests scheduled for 2024 "We are making important progress toward a broadly protective coronavirus vaccine," said Kevin O. Saunders, Ph.D., associate director of the Duke Human Vaccine Institute. https://www.wral.com/story/combo-co...mice-human-tests-scheduled-for-2024/21103052/ Duke researchers are working on a vaccine to protect against three different deadly strains of coronavirus. The vaccine shows success in mouse studies, according to researchers at the Duke Human Vaccine Institute. The vaccine included components of a previous vaccine that was shown to protect mice and primates against multiple variants of SARS-CoV-2, which is the virus that causes COVID-19. In this study, the vaccine protected mice from SARS-CoV-1, another form of SARS coronavirus that can infect humans, and a MERS coronavirus that has led to periodic, deadly outbreaks around the world. “We are making important progress toward a broadly protective coronavirus vaccine,” said Kevin O. Saunders, Ph.D., associate director of the Duke Human Vaccine Institute. “These are pathogens that cause or have the potential to cause significant human infections and loss of life, and a single vaccine that provides protection could slow down or even prevent another pandemic.” The tri-valent vaccine helps immune cells build an effective response against actual coronaviruses that enter the body. Human tests are scheduled to begin in 2024 for a version that carries immunogens to different SARS-CoV-2 strains, including those that have dominated since the original outbreak in late 2019. Researchers are working to expand the components of the vaccine to include an additional SARS-related virus and MERS virus. In lab studies, as well as in mice, the researchers found that the vaccine created antibodies against all three pathogenic human coronavirus types. Vaccinated mice did not grow sick when challenged with either SARS-like or MERS-like viruses.
https://kirschsubstack.com/p/the-di...tle&isFreemail=false&r=519vn&utm_medium=email Links to data in the above link. The ratio of COVID unvaxxed to vaxxed in the people who died suddenly since the rollout of the COVID vaccines is estimated to be fewer than 1 in 1,000. Yet 25% of Americans are not vaccinated. If the COVID vaccine isn’t related to the deaths, then roughly 25% of the people who die suddenly should be unvaccinated. This isn’t the case. It’s less than 0.1%. This is statistically impossible to occur unless there is a cause (as I explain below). One explanation: the vaccine is causing the deaths. Is there another explanation? Nobody has ever offered an alternative. Introduction Mark Crispin Miller has been tracking “died suddenly” deaths since 2022. He estimates that he has documented over 10,000 such deaths since he started. In one of those deaths, he was notified that the deceased was not vaccinated with the COVID vaccine But let’s be conservative and say that there were 10x as many of these and that 1 in 1,000 sudden deaths were unvaccinated. In the US, 25% of us are not vaccinated with the COVID vaccine. So in 10,000 deaths, we’d expect to see 2,500 deaths, but we only saw 10 deaths. That could happen by chance. The probability is really small though. It’s less than 1e-330 which is the limit of Python’s floating point. It’s so small that even if Mark Crispin was off by three orders of magnitude, and there were 1,000 people who were unvaccinated and died suddenly, it’s still 6.6e-256. So if the discrepancy of expected vs. observed didn’t happen by chance (which it didn’t), there must be a cause. What is it? The died suddenly stats From speaking with each one of the authors, here are the stats I got for the number of unvaccinated vs. the number they have reported of people who “died suddenly”: William Makis: 0 in 2,000 Ed Dowd: 1 in 550. Described here. Mark Crispin Miller: 1 in 10,000. Another interesting statistic Yonatan Moshe Erlichman died of a heart attack on October 12, 2023 while taking a bath. 8 year olds rarely die from heart attacks like this where there is no cause. It’s a fewer than 1 in a million occurrence. See if you can find a similar case of this happening before the COVID vaccines rolled out. Isn’t it odd that it happened to the national spokesperson for the vaccine in Israel? Am I wrong? It’s simple enough to show without doing a lot of work. Just research one month of the sudden deaths reported on Miller’s or Makis’s Substack in September 2023 (I just chose this arbitrarily). Then determine the number who did not get the COVID vaccine and publish the list. Or research the first 100 people in Ed Dowd’s book, “Cause Unknown.” What % were not vaccinated of the first 100 names listed? Summary Based on Mark and Ed’s statistics, the COVID vaccines are likely causing more than a thousand-fold rise in the number of sudden deaths. If you hear of someone who died suddenly, they more than likely died from the COVID vaccine. That’s what the numbers say.