I don't fade trending markets or try to pick tops. While the REITS are still trending higher, i would be overly concerned once they re-issue the 30-year bond 97% chance they will re-issue the 30 year bond in order to prevent an inverted yield curve. Time to short the REITS : 2006 When to Cover : 2011 When to buy a house: 2009 When to sell your house: now!!!!
I never try to "predict" what will happen as a trend follower....I react to markets...but i have to agree with getting out of your house NOW!!! I think that most people think that talk about the housing bubble just popped out of thin air. There are alot of bags being handed around right now and i dont want to be one of those people left holding it.
I don't understand the connection of the 30 year bond and shorting REIT's??? Where will you live if you sell now and don't buy another house till 09? Just curious. SteveD
Rent an apartment and put the 30% a month payment you save on mortgage payment (houses usually cost at least 30-45% more per month than apartments for those of you that didnt already know that with all the taxes/insurance/maintenance ect) and put that money into something like the BOM dividend fund making 10% a year on that money. Or trade the money yourself if you are hot sh!t. All i know is Im scared as hell to have a house right now and if one person is scared theres probably another one not too far away. It just like the internet bubble....the people that got out in 1998 are rich and the people that didnt believe the bubble are now broke. I imagine this conversation will take place in the future too. People will say...I wish i couldve sold my house in 2005 before the bubble popped.