Your going to hate this brutal post

Discussion in 'Psychology' started by Spectra, Feb 22, 2007.

  1. This is great. I will check it out. Unless it was done in 1999
     
    #61     Mar 7, 2007
  2. dpt

    dpt

    This was published in 1999, but the accounts analysed were traded during 1997
    to 1998. They were all at one firm. There's no information about initial
    capitalisation. It's equities trading, not commodities.

    The important information seems to be on pages 52/53 of the pdf. If I'm reading
    it right:

    Of 17 accounts with `statistically significant' day-trading, only one account
    showed the ability to be profitable, while 65% of the accounts lost 100% of
    their capital.

    Out of the 26 accounts included in the study, the most successful single
    account had limited short term trading and no day trading.

    This is a very small sample, I think. But it may suggest that the canonical 90-95% figure
    might be reasonable.

    I'ld like to see much more extensive studies before drawing any conclusion.
     
    #62     Mar 7, 2007
  3. Thanks for the information. I'd rather find one that was done from 2000-2005 but I'll take what I can get :)
     
    #63     Mar 7, 2007
  4. wojack

    wojack

    Agreed. Most people I met made money from 98 to 1999ish. I would like to see a more recent study.

    TC
     
    #64     Mar 9, 2007
  5. Since I initially asked about some sort of backup to the claims that most traders fail, this is better than nothing!

    It really would be interesting to see a large sample of accounts/traders to be done over a significant period of time... hmmm... the wheels are turning...
     
    #65     Mar 10, 2007
  6. dpt

    dpt

    Yup. It's definitely one data point.

    And I also think it would be really interesting to see more definitive studies on
    the question. It would be great to know, for example, how results varied with
    account size, trading style, and time period.

    It seems like it ought to be possible to make such information publicly
    available on a purely statistical basis, without damaging anyone's anonymity,
    or singling out any particular brokers. But I suppose it would require some
    sort of regulatory action for it to happen.
     
    #66     Mar 10, 2007
  7. virgin

    virgin

    I have a relative who has a futures brokerage firm , he confirmed that more than 90 % of his clients lose money
     
    #67     Mar 10, 2007
  8. Absolutely, Virgin... it'll always be that way.
     
    #68     Mar 10, 2007
  9. virgin

    virgin

    the small educated,prepared minority runs away with the money of the uneducated,unprepared masses(gamblers)
     
    #69     Mar 10, 2007
  10. 123Magic

    123Magic

    All futures speculators (not hedgers) are gambling, especially those who play the financials. This includes the novices and professionals.
     
    #70     Mar 10, 2007