You are right on the money. (Sorry about the pun!) Pivots. If all indicators say one thing together and the pivots indicate something else - I go with the pivot!
Thanks for an interesting point. I am familiar with pivots but have not thought of using them in this manner. Makes a lot of sense.
The problem with pivot points or any other indicator du jour is that they are widely used. The rules that are being used are being mass marketed through books, seminars and all the rest of the BS. All the innocent green horns are looking at the same chart using the same guidelines in which to trigger a trade. This produces a perfect imbalence for the Smart Money to kill the predictable green horns. The 90% of traders losing money rule doesn't change and hasnt changed with each new fad. I've got an indicator that I use that will knock your Aunt Connies socks off. It works because its makeup is a closely held Black Box secret that will never be revealed or become over subscribed (which would kill it). I have no idea how it works, don't expect to either. But I do know it works with amazing results. To see first hand how it has performed check out my journal where I have been posting it's afternoon forecasts. I'm not spamming as I have zero to gain by doing so . Just wanting to share and give my view as to why popular mass marketed indicators are a tool of the Big Fish (Smart Money who don't use them)feeding on the little fish(all the rest who do use them). Rennick http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=65265&perpage=6&pagenumber=49
A small but important mod to my last pivot comment As important as they are, time day is equally important. Tkat the FX for example, the morning nyc market is the best time. Afternoons are kind of slow despite where the pivots lay. Cheers
When I referred to the daily pivot point as an important indicator, it was not in context of a trading signal upon itself. If one uses price postion relative to the pivot, you will remain on the correct side of directional price action far more often than not. For example, Friday's ES session held above the daily pivot. There was a +7pt price swing from low to high, that was the biggest move of a paltry-range session. Seeking long trades only AND knowing where exactly to enter (using other price measure tools) kept a skilled ES trader on the correct side of price action all day. I myself do not use any chart indicator for specific price entries, but they are invaluable to gauging pending price direction. Trader who know how to use such simple tools find directional forecast (intraday) to be high-odds result. The daily pivot point is by far the clearest forecast filter for such trade filter selection. Independent traders using independent tools = methodical profit potential thru all market conditions. Hope this helps :>) Austin