Your best bet

Discussion in 'Psychology' started by 123Magic, Mar 13, 2007.

  1. 123Magic


    I don't know what you do for a living nor what your favorite hobby might be, but chances are there is something at which you are very, very good. Maybe you're an excellent chess player, or horseshoe pitcher, or furniture salesman, carpenter, upholsterer, cook...whatever. There is something at which you have become very skilled...Right?


    ...And chances are, if a stranger tells you he is also very good at your special thing, it will take you....oh....about a minute and a half to figure out whether he's lying ...Right?


    How can you do that? You can do it by listening to the guy. If he's claiming to be a good chess player and says something like, "The knights are more valuable to me than the rooks," you'll know you've got yourself a ringer. If you're a good cook, and this guy says he bakes biscuits at 200 degrees, you know this guy doesn't know biscuits from baloney. Sooner or later, phonies always give themselves away.

    And it's no different with trading. Professional traders can spot a non-expert very quickly. The most obvious giveaway is that phonies tend to make outrageous claims. If a guy tells you he wins 70% of his trades (let alone an amount greater than that), offer to lay 11 to his 10 that he won't win 70% of his next 20, or 50, or 500--or whatever--trades. That's the closest you'll ever come to getting a 'lock' bet. (Better have an honest third party hold the money, though.)
  2. I am an expert at whacking the haddock in the attic. Can you tell I am telling the truth?
  3. 123Magic


    How would I know? Ask your father.
  4. harmless


    I am expert in encryption

    and guns

    I can make a gun out of anything in 5-10 min

    I bet there is all kinds of people with all kinds of talents here on ET
  5. i am an expert at sleeping! bet your 11 to my 10 that I can fall asleep within 8 minutes. ;) maybe it's just narcolepsy. hah