Sorry everyone about not posting on hear lately. Have been trading wheat on the overnights after school and am pretty content with how it is going. Not much to say as for a post on it though because they arn't big trades and I just manage to grind out a few bucks on the overnight session. Wow intra day trading is absolutely insane compared to position trading! Still holding on to march/may corn. Looking at a short july/dec08 wheat hear soon if I can get it done at a level I like. Should see some higher markets in wheat on the overnight session tonight. Cant seem to break that 900 level and hold but with minni and kc breaking new highs we could be off to the races tonight.
Hello everybody im back from my journey of intra day trading. To put it simply I lost! This has been the second time now that I have burned through some money in order to try to trade intra day profitably. I tried trading the overnights on the grains and that didn't work then I went from trading the currencies from 4-7:30. That didn't work. As of now im through with trying to day trade markets. Its so hard for me and they just eat my lunch. As far as my position trades went during this time I really didn't do much as all of my focus was on my intra day trading. I did dable in that march/july wheat spread a little and a little bit of crude oil. Lets put it this way they turned out to be a hell of a lot more profitable then my day trades! Looking at some march corn hear and maybe looking at selling crude/gas or some crude/heating oil spread hear but not exactly sure what month to do that in. As for the corn I believe we could see 400 dec corn before the new year. Some think not but I believe its possible. Exports have been huge and informa came out today lowering 08-09 corn acres from 90 some million acres down to 70 some I believe. Yields supprisingly came in a little lower than previously thought. The only problem is I see crude coming back to around the 75-77 dollar level in dec crude very quickly. There seems to be no solid fundamental reason for this rise in crude. Gasoline and heating oil have not taken off near what crude has so I believe this is all hot air in the crude market. This I believe is part of the reason for the strength in the corn market. The terribly low dollar is also a reason but I think crude comes first. If crude starts to fall hard its gonna take corn right down with it. I think this will be a tremendious buying opportunity for march corn especially.
Well had an order in to buy 2 march corn at 375 before I left for school this morning and the damn thing went down to 375'4! Maybe if I put a pit order in the broker could of talked somebody into selling me that corn at 375 but who knows lol! Thought about selling some march 350 puts today also when we were trading 12 cents premium but held off on those. Trying to get my feet wet in options more than I have in the past. Most of my option experience is just selling naked puts or calls. Trying to incorperate more spread option trading into the mix just to learn and maybe reduce risk but I find the more complex a stratagy is the worse it works for me. The old saying a broker loves spreads echos in my mind. KISS seems to work the best Anyway maybe try to get that corn bought at 375 again tomorrow depending on how we trade tonight. Also any advice on options trading that you can give me to help me in the journal is welcome.
ok might be a little twist in this commodity journal to have a stock trade or two. Looking at selling some apple nov calls. What do they have like 4-5 days till expiration and the stock is trading at like 180 this morning. I see 200 nov calls for like 2.00. With a few days until experation I might take a swing at selling a few of those options. Apple in my opinion is a little pricey hear and I don't have much faith in this stock market as of late. Also going to try to buy that march corn at 375 if possible but will not chase it because although I do believe corn is headed higher I don't think it is going to be a short dramatic rally. Instead I think we will slowly make our way higher until the crop is in the ground. Also I will be in the market to sell some march 350 puts in corn if we trade down to 375 in march futures.
youngtrader: there's more than a few days left 'til Nov expiration...third Friday in Nov. is the last trading day.
Thanks for the correction on the options. I am used to grain options that expire the third friday before the contract month. Anyway went ahead and sold 1 nov 200 call in apple anyway at 3.00. I still think we are overvalued hear (mostly trading off of a hunch) and like I said im bearish the whole damn market anyway. Yet again no luck on the corn. I put in an order for 5 at 375 but no luck. I was going to try to buy just 2 but decided another 3 would be better. Maybe tomorrow.
Bought 4 march corn at 374 today. Also sold 1 march 350 put for 12 cents. Looking at expiration hear. Should of looked closely at my apple call when the market was down hard but was busy with the corn and didn't have much of a chance to look at it. Probably just hold that one till expiration also.
Sold 2 of my 4 march corn on the overnight at 92. Picked up 18 cents on each of those so can't complain. Amounts to a total of $1800. Still have 2 march corn left and will place a stop underneath those at 384. Still got my 350 put short. Im thinking we could be putting a little to much a little to fast on this corn market. This market will have to struggle greatly to break through the 400 mark on the dec not to mention on the march. Went pheasant hunting over the weekend and on our way to the many switchgrass patches I noticed elevators all over having to dump the corn on the ground due to lack of space in the bins to hold the stuff. With about 40% of the crop left they don't know where they are going to put it. This might start to weigh on the strong basis in the corn market. I look for a little harvest pressure soon and then once crop harvest is totally compleat I believe we will start to inch our way back up untill spring time. Will also keep an eye on july cbot wheat. Might be an opportunity soon to sell or place some options stratagies.
Well good day with the corn everyone and apple call didn't do to bad either. Corn market still seems a little toppy so I moved stop up to 390 on those 2 remaining contracts. Like I said I think we might see basis start to get weaker pretty quick dragging the market down a little but then nice buying opportunity awaits imo. Looking at July wheat hear. I hear word that the wheat that is starting to come up already and is looking good and usda looks to maybe be a little low on the acres for this new crop of wheat on the way. Most farmers imo have sold new crop heavely into this thing and recieving about double the price they historically get. The best part is they can sell the crop right out of the combine (no storage costs or chance of extreme market fluctuations) so it makes since for them to sell this wheat. Since they have more than likely sold ahead of time I highly doubt they will be tilling it up in the spring to plant corn or beans if those prices get substantially higher. I feel that especially by looking at the chart 700 is the big resistance in this july wheat and it would take a massive spring freeze or something of the sort to make prices move substantially higher than 700 on the july contract. Im thinking an option play hear for 2 reasons. First I am trying to get my feet wet in options a little more than in the past and 2 I want to take advantage of the high implied vol in the otm options with like a ratio spread or something of the sort.
Got out of my remaining 2 march corn today at 390. $1500 all together for those 2. Total profit of $3300 on the corn trade! Market as I thought seems to be putting in a intermediate top hear as we see a little harvest pressure from producer selling. Could prob take us down to 355 dec and 373 march level or so before we make our run back up after harvest is complete. Im still long term bullish corn hear but am short term bearish until those levels are touched. As for my march 350 corn call I see no reason to get out of it and will prob hold it till expiration. Same with apple call which has lost 2/3 of its value since sold! Wheat market tanked today and closed damn near on its lows. Can't really understand the thinking hear when australia came out lowering crop estimates and also state run trading firms in india may import 1million tons to replenish stocks. 88% of winter wheat crop is planted vs 90% last year but 10 year average is 88%. Crop estimates are 55% good to excellent compared to the 10 year average of 62% and 60% last year. I think as of now the old crop is far to unpredictable as far as trading goes and anything could happen to those old crop contracts. I will from now on mostly focus on the new crop. I still feel we have very limited upside in this new crop. I am short term and long term bearish new crop wheat. Tomorrow will probably place a 700/600 1:2 ratio put spread in july wheat. Should only cost me about 10 cents or so to be long 700 puts then. Giving me the upside of about 4500 dollars. I feel this is the best way to play the wheat right now. On the flip side though with any type of disturbence with this new crop that is emerging we could shoot through the roof! This year leaves little room for error!