uncle ho Ialso enjoy your name! I like your trading ideas, but I owuld be very careful selling thatfront month in beans imo, shit can get real wild during planting. but very sound reasoning!
Shorted 2 aussie dollars at .9404 (I think). I expect this to work out really well. Bought 2 canadian dollars at .9805 I also expect these to work out well. Still short 2 oct/dec hogs
i am in tow of those spreads man, i dumped all my corn gonna do what we talked about and get back to basics man
YT are you still bearish corn? From my brokers news commentary im getting that only10 percent of acres designated for corn have been planted with the national avg. around this time being 35 percent. With rain scheduled for the midwest that it might be difficult to get caught up; and any unplanted acres will likely be switched to soybeans. From the cbot web site im getting funds entering the corn market with a buying presence. Secondly with the strike in Argentina might resume soon and the gov't not buldging, im not quite sure to become bearish cause of possible demand issues. or bull due to political issues with soy?. what are your thoughts on corn and soy ending this week going into next? also where do you get your market information at this time i have to scramble through a bunch of sites is there one site where i can get all scheduled announcements? thanks for your insight still trying to learn the ag markets.
college trader if you have the money go subscribe to DTN, AGDAYTA.com. If you are into grians and ag it is absolutely perfect man, its around 500 a yr though
CollegeTrader Your name sounds familiar like you have posted on this journal before. I can tell you are an extremely intelligent dude just from what you have wrote so far. Let me talk about one issue at a time. Fist off as far as the acres planted goes. The last report showed 27% of corn has been planted thus far. Living on a farm in westcentral Iowa I can tell you that we seem to be getting back on track as far as planting goes (we were a little behind). Coming from a farm background I can tell you that almost every year they plant corn no matter what. Its just something the average farmer does. They usually always plant an even number of beans and corn because of the simple fact that they are not market wizards and do not have a really good idea of where those markets are headed. Something to think about anyway. Your anaylises on funds entering the corn market could prove correct as I have seen some major buying in calls (someone bought 3,000 dec $9 calls a few days ago). With a new president coming soon I can almost guarentee that there will be a major change in the biofuel sector. The world is starting to realize that ethanol and biodiesel are not exactly the best ways to go about fueling the country and the world for that matter. Especially if mcain gets the white house there will for sure be a major change in the biofuel industry. Also with the dollar bottoming out and I don't think energy can go that much higher to be honest.......it is going to be tough for corn and soybeans to stay supported. As far as corn goes I honestly don't think we will see anything higher than $7 a bushel at the most this summer. I think worst case scenario is already priced into that market and probably soybeans also. The best way to go about trading this would be in my opinion to sell volatility. There is no easy way to get all that information you just told me on one website. You have to constantly be looking all over for different sources of info on different markets. Welcome to the world of fundamental anaylisis! It takes a lot of work but is extremely rewarding. Keep up the good work.......you sound like a pro already!
Short 2 es at 1398.50 Also im out of my canadian dollar longs at .9961 for a $3100 profit. Keeping my aussie dollar short however. still got the hog spreads
Still short my es and I will continue to hold on to them. Market just feels weak imo and im looking at 1350 as a target. Still short my 2 aussie dollars also. Profit target is around .9000 for that trade but im thinking of holding onto it until .8500.........just have to see. Still got the hog spreads although I am losing patience.
McCain = death for the grains, we could see multiple limit down days, assuming no correction happens in the runup to the election.
Why short AUD and long CAD? Aren't they trading off similar fundamentals (commodity prices, basically)? Also the AUD has a huge negative carry, making it a tricky short even if you are ultimately right. A flat market will lose you about 0.5% per month.