Ok I am typing this in school right now and am suppose to be in chemistry class but oh well! Lumber absolutely tanked today and I tried to add shorts on but I was having trouble leaving class and by the time I called the broker it was already moving to much but I wanted to sell more around 272. Anyway I held on to all 5 lumber but I think I probably should of taken some money before the close and should of covered about 3 of them when we were damn near limit lower. I did not but we still closed 6.20 lower at 266.80. I will prob cover at least 3 if not all of them tomorrow at 267 if we trade there. Traders and Brokers in the pit are saying as long as we see light trading we are going to have a bearish bias on the market. I really see no reason at all for lumber to move higher but it wouldn't supprise me to see some profit taking tomorrow and friday. Would leave a great opportunity to take money and go short again! I put in an order to buy some dec silver today I believe at yesterdays close so I don't know if I got filled yet or if I did at all. Only reason for this is seasonal and technical. Beans had a good day today rising 16 cents on nov. Will be interested to see how much farther they can take this market before we run out of steam. I want to say bottom of the gap at 851'4 but we might run a little higher than that. We had a high of 849 I think today and I will deffinantly be looking for shorting opportunities pretty quick in this market if given the chance at the 851 or a little higher. Beans are made and it is a nice crop coming. People can argue that this kind of moisture is going to make for a wet harvest and promote diseases in the beans along with giving corn stalk rot. While I think we don't need anymore rain (actually we are getting pummeled as I am typing this in west central Iowa) I think we still have plenty of time to dry out and although there is talk of disease starting in the beans I don't believe it will even come close to getting out of hand. Well, back to class and I will continue to keep everyone informed!
got out of all my lumber today at 265. This has been one of my best trades yet hopefully more to come! We might have more downside room to go but im not going to risk it. I did not get filled on that dec silver and took off the order to buy one. I did short dec 30year bond today at 110 with stop at 110'23. I think all of the scared money is starting to come back to riskier investments and although I don't want to be short for too long I think we could see a little decline. With a double top around 110'20 and 200 day moving average resistance at 110'20 I think the path of least resistance is deffinantly down for the time being. I am far from an expert in the financial futures markets as I mainly trade physical commodities but i feel good about this trade. Beans rallied again to 858 i think. We tried to rally through the 50 day ma at 866 but could not hold above it as i think the high was 868. We have now filled the gap and we have the head and shoulders pattern showing very clear. Funds bought an estimated 10,000 contracts today so I wouldn't be supprised to see more buying before we go lower. The 880 resistance level will be crucial for this market and if we cant break 880 I think 820 will be our next stop. Not sure where to start to short this market as it has more steam than i thought. I will deffinantly do something though and will keep everyone informed on when i do it.
Well got stopped out on my 30year today for about a $750 kick in the ass. I dont get it....we had terriffic overhead resistance with the double top and 200 day ma. Stock market was up durable goods came in way higher than expected and new home sales were up (granted they are from july not august when we really seemed to start having these economic problems) I guess it just wasnt meant to be. I heard alot of guys were putting on these steepeners which i guess is buying the 2s and 5s and selling the 30 and when we got those econ numbers everybody must of just been selling the 2s and 5s and buying back the 30. Whatever it pisses me off that I was right and would of had a few bucks had I have sold the 5 year or the 10 year but like I said i am a retard when it comes to financial futures but i intend on deffinantly learning more about this market in the near near future. Did not sell any beans and with this kind of strength in this market I don't think i will touch them untill we test the 880 area just to see whats up there. I still feel it is headed down but i want to be positive before I make any desicions.
Ok everyone is probably wondering what my p/l is so far on the journal and I got to wondering exactly what it was too. I had a rough estimate but the actual number is right at about $7800. That is on 10 trades (counting lumber as just 1 trade). Hopefully I will be able to keep this momentum going but who knows trades like that 30 year and nat gas dont help my chances!
Sold 2 nov beans at 876 today. We closed at 874 I believe. I hope this is the right decision! We had a better than expect progress report monday with traders expecting 2-3% decline with us coming in at a 1% increase. Market still seems to be trading a shitty bean crop (reminds me a lot of the corn market early in the year both technically and fundamentally) when I believe we have much more of a bean crop than what everyone thinks (at least in midwestern iowa where i am at). We are starting to get forcasts for dryer weather in the northern belt and wetter weather in the southern which is almost ideal for a decline in the bean market. All the fat cats that have pockets full of money with the rise in beans should start to take money before the end of the month on friday. Although market is over all big moving averages we are running into huge tech resistance at the shoulders of the head and shoulders pattern and the top of a downward trading range. I could go on and on about why beans should go down but i won't. On the other hand it wont be long and I will look for a long position in some dec corn but I will save those reasons for another time!
So this morning I wake up at 6:30 and to my great supprise beans are up 6 cents.......shit is this market ever going down? We are at 880 now and I will sell more at 880-881 unless we open higher than that. 890 would be ideal but i dont think we will get there. Got to be some profit taking before months end today and tomorrow I would think but these beans have rallied 20 cents from where I was first going to sell em.
Im in accounting class right now but I sold 2 more beans at 890. I hope this works but im not afraid to add to a position I think I am right about!
beans up 9 cents on overnight trade. Will look to make one more short sell at 894 or better and then just put in a stop that I feel good about (prob somewhere over the 900 mark) and let it work itself out. This thing is way over done. I also sold some dec 960 wheat calls for 10 cents today. Will look to sell the 1000 calls today with wheat up 20 cents on the overnight trade.
Turns out I did not sell those 960 wheat calls although I really wish I would have. I must of been thinking about the calls so much that I thought I called the broker and told him to sell em. Talk about losing it mentally! Sold 2 nov beans at 894 like I said which happened to be the high of the day I think (im never lucky enough to sell em at the high usually) . We closed at 882'4. My average on the beans is 886 and I sold 6 of them. Thanks god they started to break otherwise the loss would of taken half of my profits this year!