The whole grain complex is crazy. I bought a dec corn/dec wheat spread today, since it's blown out almost a hundred points farther than any historical level. Of course, craziness has a way of going farther than you'd ever think, but I think its a pretty good bet...
Yeah there isn't a crazier market out there right now than the grains. Its a market that will definantly turn your hair grey (I think even my young 17 year old hair is getting a touch of grey to it!) Well today I just realized I can not put stops on my 2 minni wheat trades so I just hung on to them which was probabley the wrong thing to do but I do believe in both of them but I will not take much more of a loss if things continue to deteriorate. Sep/Dec closed at -2 up 3. Sep/March closed -7 up 6. KC/Chi closed up about 5 to -17. Was an extremely busy day and I did make a small short dec corn sell for a quick 3 cents which doesn't amount to anything when you have all but one wheat spread going your way. For the report I am bearish corn and wheat but neutral to bullish on beans. This is strictly my feeling going into tomorrow morning as I do not have any flat price trades on at the moment. I see no changes to make in any of the wheat spreads and we will just have to see what tomorrow brings us. Best of luck to all of you that have positions on before the report its not going to be much of a good night sleep tonight at least not for me. I hate holding into reports.
sep/dec minni fell about 5 cents to -5'2. Just today starting to come down with any size at all. I expect this to happen again tomorrow and will probably be looking for an exit to get out tomorrow. funny thing about the sep/march my broker put in the order backwards so I actually took money at -7 for a 4 cent profit. Like I said I have only been in this game for about a year now and I had yet to experience a gift like this because I know they are hard to come by. Dec kc/chi closed down 1 cent to about -16. Will be looking at 2 more positions to add on. A long nov lumber and a long dec cattle. I will keep everyone informed on anything I do.
Well got out of my sep/dec minni wheat spread yesterday or the day before can't remember which is pretty bad but there has been alot of action going on lately in the commodity markets! I got out at -6'2 for about 2.5 cents profit which is really disapointing but it was a profit so can't complain. Dec kc/chi did really well and closed up to -21'2. I know i am still a few cents out on this but i think we might be starting a little correction in this wheat market and this should really benifit this spread. If I see fit I will sell flat price futures in dec chi wheat or bear spread it. I hate to do this too much because we are in a seasonal for higher prices and the fundamentals are strong but we could see a substantial pullback from current prices. Like the old saying goes a bull market ends on the most bullish news and we receved alot of that yesterday! Sold a nov lumber yesterday at 285 and it closed at 284 today. This is a seasonal trade that is 100% correct out of 15 years! We have a nice looking chart to short this market on and with subprime woes still going and labor day seasonally the end to the constuction year I feel this should be a big winner. Lumber is a very seasonal market! The only thing I see that could make this market start to rise would be a substantial bounce back in the stock market which I don't see happening anytime soon. Will be looking closely at a long oct hogs hear. Market has been beat down lately and with talk of china basically out of traders minds we have been trading lower. I think we will see some sort of bounce hear because of a seasonal for oct hogs and technical support getting near. I would like to hear what anybody else is trading and how it is working for them. Like I said this will be my 2nd year and I have much to learn about these markets so any advice is appreciated!
dec kc/chi wheat spread closed down 2'2 to -23'4. Nov lumber closed down 9.30 to 274.60. Oct hogs fell through the floor today on a perfect storm senario. China did anounce that they are not accepting pork from many pork processors do to a substance that is given to the hogs to promote lean muscle instead of fat. It is approved in the U.S. but not in china. Also fund liquidation in the commodity sector due to the stock market along with technical weakness in the hogs just murdered the lean hog market! We did get some bottom pickers and short covering later in the session and closed just about at the 200 day moving average. I will be looking for a long position hear tomorrow if given the chance. I think we are overdone hear and packer profit margins are starting to improve not to mention oct and dec bullish condition compared to the cme hog index. The fact that the market made a substantial comeback to the 200 day moving average is impresive. Other than that I don't see anything really enticing at the moment but will keep everyone informed on any additions or changes I make.
closed out of my dec kc/chi wheat for 5 cent loss. it settled down to -24. I still believe in this spread but I think I can get better returns with my money then leave it sit there for eternity. Stopped out on nov lumber at 276.70 for about 8 points profit. Shorted it later in the day at 279 and I believe it closed at 276.60. Did not do anything with the hogs or cattle although I wish I would have but did not feel good about the situation for some reason.
For tomorrow will be looking at a long oct nat gas position. Also be looking to sell a nov gasoline crack spread if I see fit. The last thing I will be looking for is a signal to add to my short nov lumber.
Did buy some oct nat gas at 6.66 last night. I think they are beating things up a bit too much in the energy complex. Even though dean is going to miss the gulf they still evacuated workers on the rigs and with another huricanne still possible we have no reason to trade .50 lower. Technicals are also positive and will turn more positive if we can close over 7.00. I am looking to get out a few cents lower then the gap created last night at the price of 6.86. I do have a stop in at 6.46. Pray this works!
stopped out of oct nat gas at 6.47 for a $500 kick in the ass. Thank god it was a mini or i would be really upset. Sold 2 more nov lumber at 275. So I sold 1 at 279 and 2 at 275.
Sold 2 more nov lumber at 275 today. That makes 1 at 279 and 4 at 275. Closed down 1.3 at 273. Really nice trade going on hear and im lucky to have capitalized on it. Starting to maybe get a little oversold hear so I might look to take profit around 270-271 area. Then come back with more shorts later. School starts tomorrow and this is the biggest position I have ever had in lumber period so it could be kind of a hectic day tomorrow! Looking at corn and beans now and will look for a possible long in corn and short in beans but will keep everyone informed on what happens there.