Great day overall and well worth missing school Shorted 3 contracts at 1345. Average is now 10 at 1359. I honestly think 1300-1320 is in order here. 1345 is first resistance on the overnight and I expect that to hold. I think we could see 30s tomorrow morning right off the bat.
school is a waste of time buddy im glad you called in to get a real education. are you planning on going to college? I went for 6 years and all I have to show for it is a bunch of ex girlfriends and some bad habits you have been tearing it up lately man, good job. I severely overtraded today (7 gold contracts at once lol) and lost 3 k. damnit thats what I need to work on is the overconfidence/overtrading thing you know? Good job on the TA man you are really getting good at it, I really enjoy hearing about your dad man that is fascinating stuff!
Rtrader You and me both agree there. I just found out that I got a 21 on my ACT today so that should at least get me into some sort of college. To be honest I don't want to go to college but hey I figure if my folks are making me go and its gonna set me back a few Gs I might as well get my money's worth and do all the partying I can lol!!! Thanks man but I don't know about tearing it up. Im up around 7K on this es thing but other than that not much going on. You know what I knew that fucking gold was going to break out and thought about buying strangles/straddles in that market for the longest time and what do you know it breaks out and I come up empty handed!!! Don't worry about the loss man. If there is one thing I have learned in this biz its that you always make it back but it just takes a fucking long time! Now your sounding like me, overtrading/overconfidence. Especially day trading, I always trade too damn much and it always gets the best of me. Oh yeah he is a very interesting guy my dad and I could go on and on about him and trading. If you ever get bored let me know cause I've got a ton of em! Take it easy man and keep in touch!
hey young trader, not sure how old most of the traders on here are, but it's nice see to people around my age trading. im new to the commodities market, just started looking seriously earlier this year, day trading the YM at the moment and randomly take positions in other commodities during the day. got a question for ya, what do you think of an april ho/rb spread? im thinking about holding one, but it's narrowed considerably since 2 weeks ago. subscribing to this thread btw, alot of great learning information, keep up the good work!
Blubaru Good to hear from you and I hope you are enjoying the journal. How old are you by the way? This is a spread I highly considered selling a while ago and I am glad I didn't as we got a lot of cold weather which propped up the price of heating oil. Gas is still the lagard but natty gas looks to break out big time but crude imo is a little over done here and could settle back a little. If it were me I would be selling this spread and not buying it. This is a very seasonal play and I would not be suprised if my dad isn't already on it (he does a lot of energy seasonal plays but not usually spreads). I will talk to him today and see if he has an opinion. Good Trading
Hey youngtrader, I am in awe of your trading accomplishments, especially at such a young age. I'm at business school and yet a 17 year-old such as yourself knows so much more than I do about the markets. I'm looking to get into trading myself, and I was just wondering how you know so much about all the different products? How did you start? You trade almost every product and are successful. I'm really interested in Crude oil and Natural Gas, but there are so few resources out there about these two products. Do you have any book or website recommendations?
nychino371 Thanks for the compliments but I took some heat today on my es shorts (funny how when you last checked the quotes it said down 15 and then all of a sudden you come home and we end up around 10? WTF? I think this was a manufactured rally though and they are just squeezing out weak shorts before another plunge lower). I actually live on a farm here in Iowa so knowing the grain and livestock markets came very naturally to me. So thats what I origionally started off trading. I traded mainly wheat and wheat spreads for a long time before dabbling in other markets. My dad traded a lot of energy so I just kind of picked up on energy trading from him. As for everything else the only thing I can say is read read and read about each product as much as you possibly can. Also read every commentary you can find on the different commodity markets every day. Sooner or later you will find that its just simple supply and demand that drives everything. If you need some assistance in trading any type of commodity (grains, energies, livestock, softs, financials, etc) let me know and I will try to help you out with the fundamentals of that particular market. If you look a few posts back in the journal it talks about how I got started in the markets. If your not clear on something let me know. Crude and Natty Gas huh? Send me a PM with some of the questions you have on those markets and I will try to get back to you quickly. Have a great weekend everybody as I try to figure out what the hell went wrong with my shorts today lol!
Ok everybody whats up? es has been an absolute rollercoaster and while i'm a fan of rollercoasters this is getting a bit ridiculous! The common bitching on et about this market rallying late in the day both today and on friday tells me one thing. I was shorting in a crowded short open interest market. Duh!!! Everybody must of been shorting this thing! Everybody must be thinking we are going to retest the lows before moving higher! This leaves me in a bit of a situation to say the least. #1 Do I pump even more shorts into this bitch and ride it all the way down like a dirty vegas coke whore after this short squeeze is done? #2 Do I get the hell out while I can still breath and watch the market trade substantially higher/bottom from here? I'm thinking #1 is the better choice (but I have been in these type of situations too many times not to know better and cut my losses.......some people never learn lol). This imo is a good old fashion short squeeze on all the poor SOB's who can't hold there own and are being forced to liquidate. The market is (was?) simply too crowded to go any lower. Take a look at a 15 min chart on the es and you will see a major channel ranging from 1370-1330. When we broke that channel today huge volume happened but price didn't move all that much higher. This tells me one thing and one thing only...........it was a short squeeze and the big boys pushed through that resistance to hit plenty of buy stops from the retail guys but the fact that price didn't move that much from that level tells me that there were plenty of people willing to short at that level (probably big boys). So we have our hypothosis, testing, observation and now what is our conclusion? (I know my chemistry teacher would be so proud right now ) The conclusion is this was a short squeeze to take out the smaller less capitalized traders before making yet another run to the lows or there abouts. Im holding my 10 shorts @ 1359 Talk to you all tomorrow
Also for the guy who asked about the gasoline/heating oil spread. My dad is long gasoline and short heating oil in both the may contracts. Didn't have time today to talk about it much though and i don't know exactly what price he got them all done at but he did it a few days ago and I think added more today so its roughly around this area that he has the spread on. Hope that helps.
Thanks man. I may take on one of these, heating oil's price went up a bit from the snow storms that hit the north recently, but they're settling back down now it seems. Happy trading man, ill be reading.